Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Deni Avdija is fresh off of a 10-5-6 game that included 4 steals and amounted to 22.2 Draftkings points. Avdija has shown how effective he can be in the absence of Bradley Beal, posting 30+ Draftkings points in every game that Beal has missed where he has seen at least 30 minutes. Furthermore, given the fact that Avdija remains under $5k, expect him to be one of the most popular plays on tonight’s slate.
- Immanuel Quickley is just $4,100 on Draftkings and unlike many other value plays is not entirely dependent on scoring in order to accumulate points. Quickley is seeing 25+ minutes per game most games and is averaging 10-5-3 with a steal for the season. Moreover, due to the nature in which Quickley scores fantasy points, he projects as a nice value play on tonight’s slate given his high floor and a favorable matchup.
- Bogdan Bogdanovic is very cheap tonight at just $4,100 on Draftkings with the Hawks missing Dejounte Murray and thus he will garner a good amount of ownership. However, Bogdan is extremely reliant on his shot falling to accumulate fantasy points. Bogdan shot 3-16 last game vs the Knicks in the best 3 point matchup in the league and finished the game with just 15 fantasy points. Even in the game prior, when Bogdan shot a respectable 6-13, he still only finished with 26.3 fantasy points due to his inability to rack up ancillary stats. Bogdanovic is a good player to fade tonight despite his cheap price tag.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Deni Avdija
Immanuel Quickley
RJ Barrett
Kelly Oubre
Deandre Ayton
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, De'Aaron Fox
SG: Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards, Franz Wagner
SF: Lebron James, Harrison Barnes, Kevin Durant
PF: Giannis, Pascal Siakam, Jalen Johnson
C: Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Kristaps Porzingis
Popular DFS Play: Deni Avdija
Price: $4,800/$5,500
Own%: 45.38%/46.76%
DFS Value Play: Immanuel Quickley
Price: $4,100/$4,900
5x%: 42.00%/23.00%
Player to avoid in DFS: Bogdan Bogdanovic
Price: $4,100/$4,400
LevX: -21.48/ -27.07
NBA DFS final thoughts
This slate is shaping up to be extremely balanced due to the lack of really killer value available (at the time of writing this). “Flipping the build” is one of the best strategies you can use to get a leg up on your opponents, and tonight is a prime spot to do it. There are high priced studs galore on this slate, and virtually none of them will even be in the double digits in terms of ownership. Attempting to follow a more stars and scrubs approach with your lineups tonight may provide the leverage you need to have a chance at first place. Good luck tonight!
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