Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Edmund Sumner has a good chance of leading the Brooklyn Nets in both usage and shot attempts tonight and he is less than $4k on both sites. With Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, and virtually every other member of the Brooklyn Nets normal rotation out tonight, Sumner is one of the last remaining Nets players that regularly sees rotation time. Expect Sumner to be one of many very chalky Brooklyn Nets players tonight.
- Day’Ron Sharpe finds himself in a similar situation to Sumner, as he will be thrusted into a massive role in the absence of the entire Brooklyn Nets team. Sharpe is the dead minimum on both sites and likely to see 28+ minutes at starting Center tonight. Sharpe has been effective in the past on a FPPM basis, and thus projects as an absurdly good value play on tonight’s slate.
- Kawhi Leonard recently returned to the Clippers rotation after being sidelined with yet another injury. Kawhi has failed to eclipse 27 Draftkings points in either game since he returned and doesn’t find himself in a great matchup tonight against the Wizards. Moreover, given Kawhi’s minutes being limited, as well as him still being rusty from his injury, Kawhi is a good player to avoid on tonight’s slate.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Edmund Sumner
Day'Ron Sharpe
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Jayson Tatum
Christian Wood
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Patty Mills, Steph Curry, John Wall
SG: Jaden Hardy, Talen Horton-Tucker, Nickeil Alexander-Walker
SF: Malik Beasley, Corey Kispert, Kyle Anderson
PF: Lamar Stevens, Jared Vandevilt, Aaron Gordon
C: Kevon Looney, Kelly Olynyk
Popular DFS Play: Edmund Sumner
Price: $3,200/$3,800
Own%: 49.12%/57.73%
DFS Value Play: Day'Ron Sharpe
Price: $3,000/$3,500
5x%: 99.50%/98.20%
Player to avoid in DFS: Kawhi Leonard
Price: $7,100/$5,800
LevX: -14.45/ -25.78
NBA DFS final thoughts
This slate has value that you literally cannot get away from. Even at high projected ownership for many of these value plays, they could still end up under-owned given the context of the slate. I would jam the value as much as you can and differentiate with the mid/high priced studs you will be able to fit. Hopefully you end up on the value that smashes and avoid the landmines. Good luck tonight!
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