Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Update 6:30 EST: Jrue Holiday has been ruled out. This makes Jevon Carter a very strong value at near min-price. In cash games you can swap Carter in place of Saric.
Main Points:
- Chris Paul is in the twilight of his hall of fame career, however, he’s still averaging over a fantasy point per minute at this stage. Additionally, the Suns will be without Devin Booker tonight which will likely force CP3 to take on an even larger role in facilitating the offense. Thankfully, Paul gets a great matchup against a defensively-challenged uptempo Houston Rockets squad helping to justify his ownership.
- Jordan Poole is averaging career highs in both usage and assists this season which has increased his potential ceiling in DFS. Andrew Wiggins remains out and as the Warriors 2nd leading scorer this will continue to add to Poole’s opportunity. Poole is one of the strongest mid-range value plays on both sites tonight.
- CJ McCollum should in theory be smashing without Brandon Ingram but so far has been somewhat inconsistent. While you could make the argument to play him as leverage off of Chris Paul, both of them project for similar high ownership. Likewise, McCollum is in the same price range as Jordan Poole but is more expensive, projects worse, and will be chalky.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Chris Paul
Jordan Poole
Mikal Bridges
Dario Saric
DeAndre Ayton
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Steph Curry, Kevin Porter Jr., Malcolm Brogdon
SG: Klay Thompson, Jordan Clarkson, Marcus Smart
SF: Lebron James, Jaylen Brown, Harrison Barnes
PF: Jayson Tatum, Zion Williamson, Lauri Markkanen
C: Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Brook Lopez
Popular DFS Play: Chris Paul
Price: $6,200/$7,200
Own%: 49.80%/41.63%
DFS Value Play: Jordan Poole
Price: $6,400/$6,400
5x%: 65.30%/65.40%
Player to avoid in DFS: CJ McCollum
Price: $6,900/$7,500
LevX: -14.45/ -20.87
NBA DFS final thoughts
The theme of tonight’s slate will be Phoenix Suns. Many lineups will have 3-4 Suns primarily focusing on Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, Dario Saric, and DeAndre Ayton. You can easily get different in DFS tonight just by limiting your exposure to Phoenix. Another way to get different may be to forgo a balanced build and go stars-and-scrubs as most of the expensive players are projected at lower ownership. Good luck tonight!
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