Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- With Kyle Lowry ruled out for rest, Bam Adebayo questionable (for rest), and Caleb Martin also questionable with an ankle injury, the Heat are short on bodies and shot creation. Herro is coming off a monster performance vs OKC last night, scoring 35 real life points and ending with 45 Draftkings points. That was without Butler, but with Lowry and Bam. Given their expected absences, expect Herro to be heavily owned on tonight's slate.
- Surprise surprise, the entire Clippers team is out! With Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Norman Powell, and Reggie Jackson already ruled out, and both Ivica Zubac and Luke Kennard questionable, the Clippers are well, shorthanded… If the Clippers are planning on trying to keep this game competitive then Wall is likely to lead the team in usage and he can get it done in both the scoring or assisting department. He is extremely underpriced for the usage he's stepping into and is a great value play tonight.
- As mentioned above Kyle Lowry is out for the Heat tonight and Bam is questionable, but it sounds like they will rest him too. Last season when this scenario played out, Tyler Herro was the one to see a huge usage bump, not Jimmy Butler. In a meaningful 500+ minute sample size, Herro saw a 2.9% usage bump per 36 minutes while Butler saw just a .4% increase. Butler will have outsized ownership due to the perception of a massive increase in role without Lowry and Bam, but the data suggests otherwise. This makes Butler is a good candidate to fade on tonight's short slate.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Jimmy Butler
Tyler Herro
John Wall
Jalen Green
Giannis
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Ja Morant, Devonte Graham, Devin Booker
SG: Dillon Brooks, Luke Kennard, Zaire WIlliams
SF: Herb Jones, Naji Marshall, John Konchar
PF: Tari Eason, Rudy Gay, Brandon Clarke
C: Robert Covington, Nicolas Batum, Torrey Craig
Popular DFS Play: Tyler Herro
Price: $8,000/$7,700
Own%: 47.38%/67.91%
DFS Value Play: John Wall
Price: $5,600/$5,900
5x%: 54.80%/48.60%
Player to avoid in DFS: Jimmy Butler
Price: $8,700/$9,600
LevX: -18.15/ -26.61
NBA DFS final thoughts
While this is a short slate, it has a ton of injury news. Key players are missing for the Clippers, Heat, and Suns and who knows who else could be ruled out by lock. The key to this slate will be avoiding the chalk landmines that fail and being overweight on the value that smashes (duh). As I've talked about before, one of the best ways you can go about attempting to do this is by avoiding as much negative correlation within your lineups as possible. Whether it be separating Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, or not using both Robert Covington and Nicolas Batum in the same lineup. Be conscious of your correlations and good luck tonight!
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