Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Onyeka Okongwu is averaging just under a fantasy point per minute and projects for around 29 minutes tonight. Additionally, he gets a great matchup as centers versus Charlotte has been a flow chart all season long. Okongwu is projected to be one of the highest owned players on both sites, but with a median projection that is already 6x his price he’s hard to avoid.
- Donte DiVincenzo has averaged right around a fantasy point per minute over the past month is coming off a whopping 37.8 minutes in his last game. With Steph Curry out for the foreseeable future DiVincenzo should be locked into heavy minutes on a nightly basis. While his price has increased, it’s still not where it should be considering his role which makes him a very strong value tonight.
- De’Andre Hunter is coming off of a strong performance with 38 Draftkings points in 38 minutes. Despite that performance his price has actually come down on DK. The real issue here is what do you believe is the true De’Andre Hunter? He’s a career 0.77 FPPM player, but since the injuries to Murray, Collins, and Capela that’s gone up to 0.97. Given his ownership and with viable pivots in his price range, this is a spot you can fade in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Trae Young
Donte DiVincenzo
De'Andre Hunter
Kyle Anderson
Onyeka Okongwu
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Luka Doncic, Damian Lillard, Darius Garland
SG: James Harden, Andrew Nembhard, Quentin Grimes
SF: Kevin Durant, Jaylen Brown, Josh Hart
PF: Jayson Tatum, Bol Bol, Jonathan Kuminga
C: Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid
Popular DFS Play: Onyeka Okongwu
Price: $4,700/$5,200
Own%: 70.00%/70.00%
DFS Value Play: Donte DiVincenzo
Price: $5,700/$5,300
5x%: 50.90%/71.50%
Player to avoid in DFS: De'Andre Hunter
Price: $5,100/$5,400
LevX: -14.92/ -20.33
NBA DFS final thoughts
While there are quite a few players tonight that are underpriced, not many of them are pure value plays. This is likely going to lead to more balanced lineups in DFS contests tonight. As always, a simple way to get different is to flip the standard construction so if the majority are going balanced try going stars and scrubs. There are quite a few high-upside expensive options projected for low-ownership. In contrast, you can elect to play the standard build but find price-range pivots for some of the chalkier options. An easy way to do this is to avoid some of the Atlanta and Golden State mid-range plays. Good luck tonight!
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