Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- With Luka Doncic and Spencer Dinwiddie out, expect Christian Wood to perhaps be the highest owned player on tonight's slate. Wood should lead the team in usage and has been playing great recently.
- One of Kemba Walker or Jaden Hardy will start for the Mavs in place of Luka/Dinwiddie. Given that both are basically minimum price, they are great value options on tonight's slate.
- Tim Hardaway Jr. is going to garner quite a bit of ownership on tonight's slate with Luka and Dinwiddie out. However, Hardaway is extremely reliant on scoring to produce fantasy points, and is therefore a good candidate to fade at high ownership given that he could go cold at any time.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Tre Mann
Christian Wood
Bobby Portis
Grayson Allen
Jalen Williams
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Tre Mann, Jrue Holiday, Damian Lillard
SG: Keon Johnson, Reggie Bullock, Isaiah Joe
SF: Herbert Jones, Kenyon Martin, Naji Marshall
PF: Zion, Evan Mobley, Trendon Watford
C: Jabari Smith, Javale McGee, Jaren Jackson
Popular DFS Play: Christian Wood
Price: $6,300/$6,500
Own%: 70.00%/70.00%
DFS Value Play: Jaden Hardy/Kemba Walker
Price: $3,000, $3,100/$3,700, $3,800
5x%: 85.00%/75.00%
Player to avoid in DFS: Tim Hardaway Jr.
Price: $4,900/$5,000
LevX: -12.89/ -28.84
NBA DFS final thoughts
There is a ton of value on this slate with all the injury news. Make sure as always to avoid as much negative correlation within each team as possible. Other than that I would recommend jamming as much value as possible and getting different with your pay up options, as the chalk is likely to still not be chalky enough given the situations.
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