Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Thomas Bryant is likely going to be the highest owned player on the entire slate. He’s always been a strong FPPM producer and the Lakers are without Lebron and AD tonight. Additionally, DeAndre Ayton is questionable for the Suns, if he sits there is little resistance to Bryant going off.
- Landry Shamet grades out as the top value as far as 5x% in the models tonight. This is largely due to the Suns backcourt being very thin with Booker and Cam Payne out. Thankfully, the Suns get a solid matchup against a Lakers team that has been giving it up to opposing guards and will be without Lebron and AD. Priced under $4k on both sites it won’t take much for Shamet to hit value.
- Chris Paul is going to be one of the most popular options in DFS tonight. On the surface it makes sense with no Booker and a thin backcourt. However, this is a veteran leader on a team with championship aspirations on the first night of a back to back. Considering they are playing a lackluster Lakers team missing Lebron and AD, there’s a decent chance Paul takes it easy tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Russell Westbrook
Landry Shamet
Thomas Bryant
LaMelo Ball
Domantas Sabonis
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Luka Doncic, Damian Lillard, Trae Young
SG: James Harden, Kelly Oubre Jr., Jordan Clarkson
SF: Mikal Bridges, Anthony Edwards, Scottie Barnes
PF: Giannis, Zion, Pascal Siakam
C: Joel Embiid, Bobby Portis, DeAndre Ayton (if he plays)
Popular DFS Play: Thomas Bryant
Price: $4,200/$5,800
Own%: 70.00%/68.36%
DFS Value Play: Landry Shamet
Price: $3,700/$3,900
5x%: 69.60%/65.94%
Player to avoid in DFS: Chris Paul
Price: $8,100/$8,100
LevX: -12.18/ -26.73
NBA DFS final thoughts
Initially it seemed as though tonight would be full of Thunder value but as news as rolled in that has basically fallen by the wayside. However, all of those same Thunder value plays are still there and now at much lower ownership. Shai Glizzy, while not a value, is also underowned relative to his upside tonight. Continuing with this high upside, low-owned trend Luka, Harden, Giannis, Embiid, Lillard, Trae, and Zion are all projecting for 10% or less ownership which is simply insane. Finding a way to fit in one of these studs seems like a solid way to get different. Good luck tonight!
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