Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Mikal Bridges has received a 4.1% usage bump in 3 games without Devin Booker this season. Bridges is priced like Booker is playing, so with him ruled out on such a short slate Bridges becomes one of many attractive options on the Phoenix Suns that are now underpriced for the increase in role they're stepping into. Expect Bridges to be one of the most popular plays on tonight's slate.
- Damion Lee is expected to start in place of the injured Devin Booker tonight and he is just $4,300 on Draftkings. Lee has been effective in the few games that Booker has missed so far this season. The Suns really don't have a lot of offensive options when Booker misses time, so Lee should see some decent volume on offense and is a great value play tonight. Should Landry Shamet start instead he becomes a similar play to what Lee is now.
- Deandre Ayton receives the largest usage bump when Booker is out. Ayton's usage skyrockets from 22.7% all the way up to 30.6% when Booker is off the floor. That 7.9% difference leads the Suns, and therefore Ayton is underpriced in a game without Devin Booker. However, Ayton is working back from injury and we can't expect much more than 32 minutes in a close game. Due to this, and due to the other attractive high-priced centers on this slate going overlooked, it's worth considering a fade on a very chalky Ayton tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Jordan Poole
Mikal Bridges
Deandre Ayton
Damion Lee
Demar Derozan
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Ja Morant, Killian Hayes, Cory Joseph
SG: Bradley Beal, Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo
SF: Bojan Bogdanovic, Saddiq Bey, Haywood Highmsith
PF: Nikola Jovic, Kyle Kuzma, Jeff Green
C: Nikola Jokic, Steven Adams, Kristaps/Gafford
Popular DFS Play: Mikal Bridges
Price: $6,500/$7,500
Own%: 44.85%/35.12%
DFS Value Play: Damion Lee
Price: $4,300/$4,100
5x%: 54.50%/68.10%
Player to avoid in DFS: Deandre Ayton
Price: $7,600/$8,000
LevX: -19.79/ -27.10
NBA DFS final thoughts
There is still plenty of injury news we need to wait on (like always). But with Devin Booker already ruled out, several of the Suns will be very chalky tonight. Depending on how late the rest of the injury news comes, it may be beneficial to leave yourself flexibility for equally as good value at much lower ownership. The field is less likely to react to news after lock, so if Jamal Murray, Kristaps, or anyone else is ruled out after lock, getting off of Suns chalk for equally as good of value at a major ownership discount may give you a big leg up on the field. Good luck tonight!
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