Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Kenyon ‘KJ’ Martin Jr. is projected to play around 30 minutes for the Rockets tonight. Houston is without Eric Gordon and Jae’Sean Tate which should shorten up the rotation. Martin has positional flexibility and a cheap price which will make him highly popular on both DFS sites tonight.
- Naji Marshall is another value player projected to see over 30 minutes. While he’s only a 0.86 FPPM producer he does see a decent matchup boost versus the Thunder. The matchup plus the increased minutes are leading to him having a strong median projection relative to his price. As long as Zion remains out Marshall is one of the best value players on the slate.
- Tari Eason benefits from the same situation as Kenyon Martin Jr. However, even with the shortened rotation he still doesn’t project for a ton of minutes. That said, he is a strong FPPM player which means he could do more with less. With less secure minutes, high ownership, and a neutral at best matchup Eason can be avoided in GPPs unless you’re opting to fade Martin instead.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Jose Alvarado
Lebron James
Kenyon ‘KJ' Martin Jr.
Tari Eason
Naji Marshall
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Luka Doncic, Damian Lillard, Jalen Brunson
SG: Donovan Mitchell, Spencer Dinwiddie, De’Andre Hunter
SF: Jaylen Brown, RJ Barrett, Josh Hart
PF: Jayson Tatum, Julius Randle, Aaron Nesmith
C: Joel Embiid, Domantas Sabonis, Brook Lopez
Popular DFS Play: Kenyon ‘KJ' Martin Jr.
Price: $3,700/$4,200
Own%: 52.20%/45.34%
DFS Value Play: Naji Marshall
Price: $4,400/$4,600
5x%: 68.00%/75.30%
Player to avoid in DFS: Tari Eason
Price: $3,500/$4,500
LevX: -21.31/ -16.88
NBA DFS final thoughts
The theme tonight is going to be Rockets and Pelicans value. While some if it is strong and likely worth the ownership, some of it can be easily avoided in GPPs. However, despite the value plays, ownership is not reflecting a stars and scrubs build. The vast majority of players priced $10k or higher on both sites are projected to be less than 10% owned. This is potentially a huge edge in DFS contests to be able to get some of the highest ceiling players on the slate and minimal ownership. Good luck tonight!
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