Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Update 5:54pm EST: Jimmy Butler has been officially ruled out. For the cash game core plays substitute Kyle Lowry for Jose Alvarado.
Main Points:
- Naji Marshall should see 30+ minutes once again tonight as Herb Jones is out and Zion is doubtful. Additionally, Trey Murphy and Dyson Daniels are also questionable which would leave the Pelicans very thin. While Marshall’s FPPM has stayed consistent around 0.86 the increase in minutes has led to him being a strong value at his price point. He’ll be popular tonight for good reason.
- Orlando Robinson is another beneficiary of injury/rest. Bam Adebayo has been ruled out, Dedmon has been out, and Jovic is apparently hated by coach Spo. This has all led to increased minutes for Robinson and he currently projects for around 24 minutes tonight. At near minimum price and with his median projection he is a top DFS value on the slate tonight.
- DeMar DeRozan is projected to be very high owned tonight against Houston. The Rockets are awful and a great matchup for the Bulls. However, the issue here is DeRozan’s price and upside relative to similar options in his price range or even slightly higher. For example, Kyrie projects slightly higher at a similar price but with less than 10% ownership.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Jose Alvarado
Naji Marshall
DeMar DeRozan
Orlando Robinson
CJ McCollum
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Tyrese Haliburton, Kyrie Irving, Reggie Jackson
SG: Terry Rozier, Norman Powell, Royce O’Neal
SF: Kevin Durant, Anthony Edwards, Keldon Johnson
PF: Lauri Markkanen, Evan Mobley, Jalen Smith
C: Jarrett Allen, Mason Plumlee, Walker Kessler
Popular DFS Play: Naji Marshall
Price: $4,800/$5,000
Own%: 46.95%/70.00%
DFS Value Play: Orlando Robinson
Price: $3,200/$4,100
5x%: 75.90%/49.10%
Player to avoid in DFS: DeMar DeRozan
Price: $8,400/$8,500
LevX: -14.09/ -31.82
NBA DFS final thoughts
Many DFS lineups tonight are going to have at least half of their spots dedicated to Pelicans and Bulls. Just by limiting your exposure to those two teams you’ll be different. Despite the seemingly abundant value tonight a decent amount of the expensive options are projected to be low owned, or at least lower than they should be. Overall this shapes up to be a nice GPP slate where there is some obvious value, but lots of ways to get different in the mid and high ranges. Good luck tonight!
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