Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Onyeka Okongwu will be one of the highest owned players in DFS tonight. He continues to play well in the absence of Clint Capela and is averaging over a FPPM. Additionally, Okongwu gets a great matchup versus the Pacers who are on the second half of a back to back. Whether or not you play Okongwu is likely the biggest leverage point tonight.
- Josh Okogie should play somewhere between 20-25 minutes tonight with upside for more. The Suns will be without Devin Booker, Cam Payne, and Landry Shamet which opens up a ton of minutes and usage for the remaining players. At his current price Okogie projects as one of the stronger values on the slate despite a limited ceiling.
- Draymond Green is a better play on Draftkings than he is on Fanduel, but on both sites he’s higher owned than he should be relative to his median/ceiling. The Hornets/Warriors should be a popular game to target but there are plenty of plays in that game to choose from. In general, these chalk mid-range players with median/ceiling combos of 5x/6x are often great places to pivot in DFS.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Duane Washington Jr.
Josh Okogie
Onyeka Okongwu
Jeremy Sochan
Nikola Jokic
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Luka Doncic, Fred Van Vleet, Monte Morris
SG: James Harden, Paul George, Terry Rozier
SF: Jaylen Brown, Harrison Barnes, Quentin Grimes
PF: Julius Randle, John Collins, Jabari Smith II
C: Joel Embiid, Myles Turner, Alperen Sengun
Popular DFS Play: Onyeka Okongwu
Price: $5,500/$5,800
Own%: 59.42%/70.00%
DFS Value Play: Josh Okogie
Price: $4,000/$4,600
5x%: 65.50%/31.10%
Player to avoid in DFS: Draymond Green
Price: $5,900/$6,800
LevX: -7.76/ -10.65
NBA DFS final thoughts
Tonight is shaping up to be a good GPP night in DFS. There is some questionable chalk that leads to quite a few ways to get different with lineup construction. While Jokic will be popular, many of the other high upside stars are once again going overlooked. There’s no real clear cut answers tonight so I would lean on the models to help guide decisions. Good luck tonight!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.