Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo is projected to be one of the highest projected players in DFS tonight. He should have even more usage than normal due to Middleton and Jrue being out. Additionally, the Bulls have been getting destroyed in the paint giving up 60 points in the paint in just their last game. The big question tonight will be between playing Giannis or Jokic.
- Royce O’Neal has a median projection pretty significantly higher than surrounding players in his range. Likewise, his ceiling is also on the higher end of that group as well. O’Neal is a strong value play at low ownership in a great matchup tonight.
- Jevon Carter is going to be a popular value play not because he is good, nor a strong FPPM player, but because he’s cheap and likely starting. Granted the Bucks will be shorthanded without Jrue and Middleton, however, that doesn’t mean a ton of usage for Carter. Additionally, there are going to multiple value plays under $4k that you can pivot to.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Jevon Carter
Pat Connaughton
Onyeka Okongwu
Kyrie Irving
Giannis OR Nikola Jokic
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Russell Westbrook, Monte Morris, Alex Caruso (if he plays)
SG: Dejounte Murray, Cole Anthony, Duane Washington Jr.
SF: Kevin Durant, Harrison Barnes, Vlatko Cancar
PF: John Collins, Isaiah Stewart, Kelly Olynyk (if he plays)
C: Rudy Gobert, Nikola Vucevic, DeAndre Ayton
Popular DFS Play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Price: $11,500/$11,700
Own%: 48.71%/56.14%
DFS Value Play: Royce O'Neal
Price: $4,300/$4,900
5x%: 66.30%/51.60%
Player to avoid in DFS: Jevon Carter
Price: $3,500/$4,200
LevX: -12.34/ -21.72
NBA DFS final thoughts
There is a plethora of value options tonight which will make stars and scrubs roster builds extremely popular. However, there isn’t really one or two value plays that stand out above the rest. With all of them projecting similarly a good approach will be to just play the lower owned players if you go stars and scrubs. Unfortunately, there aren’t a ton of low-owned, high-end players tonight with Jokic and Giannis both being popular and a pretty steep price drop after them. An alternative approach could also be to build more balanced and avoid potential punt land mines. Good luck tonight!
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