Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Immanuel Quickley will already be benefiting from the absence of RJ Barrett and as of now Brunson is still questionable. Additionally, the Knicks are playing the hapless Spurs who should offer little resistance. Quickley is projected to be the highest owned player on both DFS sites tonight.
- Julius Randle finds himself as a top value tonight despite a price tag over $9k. His median projection is already over 6x his salary thus he has one of the higher 5x% on the slate. Randle is also benefiting from the same factors as Quickley mentioned above. As crazy as it sounds, expensive Randle is a top value option.
- PJ Washington is another player projected to be popular tonight. However, his median, ownership, and ceiling are all basically the same number. This basically means that while he may be a fine play, he’s currently being overvalued relative to his upside. Washington is the typical mid-range chalk play that tends to be a good spot to pivot in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Immanuel Quickley
Julius Randle
Gary Trent Jr.
PJ Washington
LaMelo Ball
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Donovan Mitchell, Spencer Dinwiddie, TJ McConnell
SG: Terry Rozier, Jalen Green, Andrew Nembhard
SF: Norman Powell, Buddy Hield, Gary Trent Jr.
PF: Jalen Smith, Jeremy Sochan, Jabari Smith II
C: Christian Wood, Mitchell Robinson, Mason Plumlee
Popular DFS Play: Immanuel Quickley
Price: $5,000/$6,000
Own%: 68.38%/67.22%
DFS Value Play: Julius Randle
Price: $9,500/$9,500
5x%: 57.60%/54.80%
Player to avoid in DFS: PJ Washington
Price: $5,300/$6,100
LevX: -10.85/ -30.10
NBA DFS final thoughts
Limit Knicks, Hornets, and Thunder exposure and you’ll be plenty different tonight. Pending late news there’s no real punt value options tonight which makes jamming in multiple high-end players difficult. You can try and gamble with the $3k range, or just find ways to get different while keeping a balanced build. Houston as a team is getting pretty overlooked and could make an interesting late option. Good luck tonight!
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