Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Jaden Ivey started at point guard for the Pistons last night and is in line for a similar role tonight with Killian Hayes suspended. Ivey recorded 31.8 Draftkings points in just 29 minutes in his first game without Hayes. Ivey is somehow $100 cheaper than he was yesterday and finds himself in an even better matchup tonight vs Minnesota. Expect Ivey to be very popular tonight.
- Alec Burks is the largest beneficiary of Hayes being off the court for the Pistons this season. Burks has a 25.1% usage rate with Hayes off the court this season. Burks has also been playing great as of late, averaging 36.26 Draftkings points over the last 3 games. Furthermore, Burks draws a great matchup again tonight against a woeful Minnesota defense and therefore projects to be a solid value play tonight.
- Lots of Pistons talk today, and the last player I want to mention is Saddiq Bey. Bey started last night in the absence of Hayes, but despite playing 31 minutes he finished with a mere 22 Draftkings points. Bey offers very little outside of scoring, so when his shot isn't falling (which happens fairly frequently) he can easily leave a snowflake in your lineup. Couple Bey's streaky tendencies with high projected ownership and you'll see why Bey is a good fade tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Naz Reid
Jaden Ivey
Saddiq Bey
Luka Doncic
Alec Burks
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: SGA, Harden, Giddey
SG: Miles McBride, Romeo Langford, Tre Mann
SF: Durant, Yuta Watanabe, Jalen McDaniels
PF: Zion, Jeremy Sochan, Santi Aldama
C: Willy Hernangomez, Steven Adams, JJJ
Popular DFS Play: Jaden Ivey
Price: $5,800/$6,200
Own%: 41.51%/52.84%
DFS Value Play: Alec Burks
Price: $4,500/$5,800
5x%: 66.10%/29.00%
Player to avoid in DFS: Saddiq Bey
Price: $4,000/$6,000
LevX: -17.57
NBA DFS final thoughts
As usual there is plenty of injury news bound to come pouring in closer to lock so things will change. However, what we do know is that Killian Hayes being out is bound to draw plenty of popularity to the Pistons guards. I would argue that avoiding negative correlation is more important than finding positive correlation as it pertains to NBA DFS specifically. With that in mind, the field is very likely to roster several Pistons players together despite the fact that they eat directly into each others ceilings. Avoid this mistake by grouping out Pistons players based on you contest size to get a leg up on the field. Good luck as always!
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