Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This video goes over all the macro and micro decisions that you will have to make for your NFL DFS lineups. We go over team totals and advanced statistics as well as player level things you need to know. There is plenty of conversation on stacks, chalk, and key decision points. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this video goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!
NFL DFS main slate breakdown:
Well, since my mic decided not to pick up any of my audio, we are doing a write up instead!
- TEN/DEN – Lowest OU on the slate. Derrick Henry is an elite option in all formats. Greg Dulcich is a very popular play and deservedly so. No reason to stack this game.
- NO/PIT – Tied for the lowest OU on the slate. Alvin Kamara is a fine option and still a bit underpriced. Chris Olave and Diontae Johnson are good GPP options.
- NYG/HOU – OU of 40 still very low. Saquon Barkley is a fantastic option in all formats. Dameon Pierce looks to be heavy chalk right behind Pollard. Kenny Golladay is going to play “significant snaps” so he has more time on the field to look terrible. Both RBs from this game are valuable but stacking is off the table.
- LAR/ARI – OU of 40 down a lot from the opening line. Both starting QBs will miss this game. There’s no reason to consider anyone here.
- LV/IND – OU of 41 is low. Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow will miss, and Davante Adams should have a massive role. Because Josh McDaniels is a massive dork it might not work out that way. IND will likely have Matt ryan in the game at halftime. Both RBs from this game are elite GPP options. Neither of Josh Jacobs or Jonathan Taylor will have more than 10% ownership and have top tier ceilings. Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and Jonathan Taylor should be priorities in your pool.
- MIN/BUF – OU of 44 is respectable. Josh Allen will play, but will be playing through pain. May affect his explosive plays a bit. MIN looks considerably undervalued by vegas here and makes for an awesome GPP stack. TJ Hockenson was heavily involved and has elite TE upside for a discount this week. Massive risk on Josh Allen but he will be 3% owned in GPPs and the upside is obviously significant. Last note is Devin Singletary is a good option for the price. Leaning towards MIN stacks as a priority.
- GB/DAL – OU of 44 is, again, respectable. GB sucks heavy ass. Zeke is likely out, Tony Pollard is going to be super chalk again this week. I’ll be fading, but it sets him up for a great game if he continues incredible efficiency. Pollard should be where you start in cash games. CeeDee Lamb is a better play than Pollard in GPPs and there’s merit to stacking the Cowboys in really large field stuff. I have no idea what to do with the Packers who, again, suck heavy ass.
- DET/CHI – OU of 48 is third best on the slate. Justin Fields projects as considerably heavy chalk for plenty of good reasons. Amon-Ra St.Brown projects as pretty heavy chalk for a lot less good reasons. Overall this game could end up being good, or it could end up being DET unable to score points and the Bears winning by a mile. David Montgomery seems like an awesome GPP option to leverage the Fields chalk. ASB looks like some of the worst chalk on the slate with other WRs in his range projecting better.
- MIA/CLE – OU of 49 is really strong, second best on the slate. MIA stacks are a top priority overall. Tyreek Hill is the best play on the slate every week. Amari Cooper is $2k underpriced for this spot and makes for an awesome value. Tua should come in at half the ownership of Justin Fields and they cost the same? And people are going to play Tyreek with Fields instead of Tua? It’s all very strange. Starting a lineup with Tua/Tyreek/Cooper is a good strategy in all formats.
- KC/JAX – OU of 51, highest on the slate. KC has the highest team total at 30.25 along with by far the highest adjusted pass rate and the highest passing TD expectation. Travis Kelce projects for twice as much as any other TE on the slate. Along with MIA, KC stacks need to be in consideration and prioritized. I’ve seen some steam on Trevor Lawernce, but he is, unfortunately, mid. A two-TE build here with Kelce/Engram is one of my favorite build paths.
Awesome slate, let's bink.
NFL DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.
QB – Justin Fields
RB – Tony Pollard
RB – Dameon Pierce
WR – Amon-Ra St.Brown
WR – Tyreek Hill
TE – Greg Dulcich
DST – Cardinals
NFL DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.
QB – Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins
RB – Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Dameon Pierce, Devin Singletary
WR – CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Amari Cooper
TE – Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, TJ Hockenson
DST – Whoever you want idk man
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