Paydirt NFL DFS Main Slate Breakdown: Week 11!

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This video goes over all the macro and micro decisions that you will have to make for your NFL DFS lineups. We go over team totals and advanced statistics as well as player level things you need to know. There is plenty of conversation on stacks, chalk, and key decision points. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this video goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

---

NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

• NE/NYJ – Total of just 38, lowest on the slate. NE has a team total of 20.75 with an expected rushing TD total of 1.16, which speaks well to Rhamondre if you go that route. The Jets suck and shouldn’t be expected to perform especially well against a Bellichick defense. Can cross this one off the list.

• CIN/PIT – Total of 39 here, which is surprisingly low. Think this one hits the over relatively easily so long as the Bengals can push for an early lead. Still no Ja’Marr Chase, so Tee Hggins and Tyler Boyd maintain as great plays. Joe Mixon is a fine play as well. Pittsburgh side is hard, but Diontae Johnson/Pat Freiermuth are both completely viable in GPPs. Good game to stack despite the total since pricing is low across the board.

• NO/LAR – Total of 39 and way less attractive than CIN/PIT with the same macros. Rams without Kupp likely a fucking trainwreck. Saints receivers getting healthier removes Olave from the conversation. Alvin Kamara is the only priority piece here. Tyler Higbee is going to be pretty chalky so keep that in mind when building. Overall, you can stack here if you prio Kamara/Higbee/Robinson/Olave.

• BAL/CAR – Total of 41, Ravens are massive favorites at -13. Total plays are very low at just 108 projected. Baker Mayfield is back, which pretty much kills any interest in the Panthers side of things. However, Lamar is back at no ownership? And Mark Andrews should be low owned. There’s maybe a spot here to go Lamar/Andrews/DJ Moore at low ownership and eat up all the upside. It’s worth considering how good BAL looks from a Vegas standpoint. Final note is Gus Edwards is inactive, making Kenyan Drake a solid cheap option to allow for more expensive stacks.

• WAS/HOU – Total here sits at 41 as well, but a better overall game environment. Some chalk here to think through as well. Terry McLaurin looks popular as well as Dameon Pierce for HOU. WAS on a short week after an emotional win is probably a good fade. With that said, HOU looks like a good horse to back and Pierce a good back to ride. Nico Collins has been solid and is still cheap. You can go with Dameon Pierce in all formats but you may also consider a HOU stack of Mills/Cooks/Collins with a McLaurin runback in large field GPPs.

• DEN/LV – Total here at 41 as well, best overall game environment of the three at this total. Davante Adams has been nuclear lately. No Waller/Renfrow opens up Mount Moreau. No Jerry Jeudy opens up Courtland Sutton and Dulcich. Is this spot a game stack? Seems like no one believes in either of these teams and both have the firepower and narrow target trees. Likewise the pricing is relatively low on both sides based on upside. Probably the best gamestacking spot of this midrange total.

• PHI/IND – Total currently at 45, starting to get better. PHI will be without Goedert and should have an emphasis on AJ Brown and, moreover, Devonta Smith. Hurts likely less ownership than Fields. For IND, expecting another significant dose of Jonathan Taylor. People are really high on the passing game as well? But I don’t like tying my money up on the sparkling husk of Matt Ryan. Seems like it’s a better option to stack PHI with Hurts/Smith/Brown and bring it back with one of Pittman/Campbell if you feel like stacking this game. Otherwise, utilizing one of Taylor/Sanders is the best way to go. Regardless, there’s a lot of good pieces in this game worth utilizing. 

• NYG/DET – Total up at 45 with PHI/DET but a considerably worse game environment. Giants are just Barkley + dudes. DET has Chark back, but outside of that it’s just ASB. Even if you wanted to stack this game, the target distributions for either side are hard to tie down. The best route is likely just a secondary correlation of ASB/Barkley. Worth noting that Barkley is expected to be the heaviest expensive chalk but is completely worth the guap.

• ATL/CHI – Total is at 48? Which seems weird with ATL here. I think this feels like a spot to take the under, but if you do that you have to watch Justin Fields run for 420 yards and break not only every rushing record but also your bankroll. So I’m not sure how much fun that sounds. Either way, the models love this game because of the high total. Fields is chalk along with Kyle Pitts. Mooney and Claypool are probably good GPP stacking options while people anchor to Kmet. Overall this feels like a trap.

• DAL/MIN – Total sitting at 48 as well but is a spot that actually deserves it. Best gamestack on the slate by a mile, but you’ll be paying for it with ownership. CeeDee Lamb looks like the highest owned player on the slate and is priced too low. However, people likely won’t be using him in MIN stacks, so we ride with Captain Kirkdizzle once again. Kirk/Jetta/Hockenson/Lamb completely in play here. A note on usage: Apparently they are giving Pollard more touches than Zeke this week, which is worth thinking about. This game environment is terrific and worth stacking a million different ways.

• BUF/CLE – Highest total on the slate at 50 after being moved from BUF to DET due to weather conditions. You know the drill with BUF at this point, but any combination of Allen/Diggs/Davis/Knox is totally fine in all formats. For CLE, this is a spot to focus on Njoku/DPJ instead of Cooper. I don’t usually buy into home/road splits but Cooper has been a consistent letdown on the road for his entire career. Both RBs in play here as well, with Singletary once again being a strong value play if you don’t have BUF stacks.

Overall Thoughts: Biggest focus is going to be on CIN, LV/DEN, DAL/MIN for me. Feels like people paying up at QB this week are going to have to make some suboptimal decisions to get there. You have to live in the midrage this week, which makes double-TE viable in all formats, but not ideal. Dameon Pierce/Kenyan Drake likely the best RB combo. Let’s bring home some trophies.

NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Justin Fields
RB – Kenyan Drake
RB – Dameon Pierce
WR – CeeDee Lamb
WR – Terry McLaurin
TE – Tyler Higbee
DST – Steelers

NFL DFS GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Joe Burrow, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins
RB – Saquon Barkley, D’Onta Foreman, Dameon Pierce, Kenyan Drake
WR – Davante Adams, Donovan Peoples-Jones, AJ Brown, Tee Higgins
TE – Mark Andrews, David Njoku, Greg DulcichDST – Whoever you want idk man

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles