Paydirt NFL DFS Main Slate Breakdown: Week 12!

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This video goes over all the macro and micro decisions that you will have to make for your NFL DFS lineups. We go over team totals and advanced statistics as well as player level things you need to know. There is plenty of conversation on stacks, chalk, and key decision points. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this video goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

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Main Points:

• The Bengals are in a game with a relatively low total once again, but their ceiling as a stack is much higher than the implied over/under.
• With the Bucs in an important game, they might go ultra-pass heavy which would neutralize the upside of popular play Rachaad White.
• There are a handful of strong value plays this week, but Michael Carter seems to be going under the radar with big receiving upside.

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NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

• DEN/CAR – Total of just 36, by far the lowest on the slate. Both DEN and CAR team totals under 20. Broncos recently shed MGIII, so they’ll run with a combo of Latavius Murray and Chase Edmonds. Speaking of that, they have a rushing TD expectation of 1.72, third highest on the slate. They are also down Jerry Jeudy, so Courtland Sutton and Greg Dulcich deserve consideration. For Carolina, they’ll be starting Sam Darnold, who sucks, but he weirdly has rushing upside. D’Onta Foreman has a great marketshare of the rushing work and is appropriately priced. In sum, there are some spots here worth one-off consideration but there’s no reason to stack this game.

• NYJ/CHI – Total here sits at 39, which is bad, but not the worst on the slate. NYJ will be starting Mike White, who is a checkdown machine. Actually, he has scored 30+ fantasy points in the past, which is interesting. He should be an upgrade overall to this offense. Specifically, Michael Carter gets a very nice boost to his targets expectation. Fields is questionable but probably closer to doubtful. If he’s out, this CHI team is a wasteland. If he plays, the usual suspects of Mooney/Kmet are viable. Overall Michael Carter is a great option in large field along with other pieces of the NYJ passing group at low prices.

• WAS/ATL – Over/Under is at 42 which is respectable. Terry McLaurin continues to thrive with Taylor Heinicke under center. Antonio Gibson should continue to benefit from no J.D. McKissic. Likewise, WAS has the highest rushing TD expectation on the slate at 1.76. As for ATL, no Kyle Pitts would usually mean Drake London is a good target, but ATL refuses to utilize their weapons. It’s a good bet that they use multiple TEs in reserve and focus even more on the running game. The WAS side is more attractive here for DFS than ATL.

• CIN/TEN – Yet another low total for the Bengals at just 42, and yet another game where the over makes a lot of sense. CIN has the highest adjusted pass rate on the slate at 67.32% and won’t have Joe Mixon which may bump it up farther. Ja’Marr Chase will miss another week, so the target tree should continue to be skinny with Higgins/Boyd/Hurst. Speaking of no Mixon, you can expect notable ownership on Samaj Perine, although his role is far from secure. As far as the Titans, they have Derrick Henry. They also have Treylon Burks, but they mostly have Derrick Henry. Lots of appeal to this game in terms of Henry+CIN stacks.

• SF/NO – Total around 43 with SF 9.5 point favorites. Team total of 26.25 for the 49ers is the third highest on the slate. They also have the second highest rushing TD expectation at 1.75. This is a CMC and Elijah Mitchell tweet. Speaking of, the 49ers are using Eli Mitchell when they are comfortably in the lead and CMC when the game is up for grabs, so keep that in mind. As for NO, they are getting healthier which is bad for everyone involved. Chris Olave is still a solid option and Kamara has upside, but neither are priorities. For the most part you only care about CMC and Eli Mitchell here.

• BAL/JAX – We have another total at 43 in this one but the spread is close at just BAL -4. It’s hard to feel confident starting anyone on BAL right now with their offensive mediocrity. It’s basically just Mark Andrews. On the other hand, JAX has been underwhelming for DFS all year, and I’m not sure why this would be an exception. Mark Andrews and Christian Kirk look like solid GPP fliers but there’s not much to love here. The under is the most appealing thing to consider.

• TB/CLE – Another total sitting at 43 but this game has some interesting situations to work with. TB will be without Leonard Fournette, so Rachaad White will be a strong play in all formats and extremely popular. However, they are likely going to continue to be pass heavy and likely more so without Lenny. CLE continues to be run heavy, but has shown passing upside in the right script. You would consider both Amari Cooper and Donovon Peoples-Jones and possibly David Njoku depending on your build path. This is a great game to stack especially because of the direct leverage on the chalky running game. However, you should be starting with Rachaad White in cash games no matter what.

• KC/LAR – Total sitting at 44 with the Chiefs as whopping 14.5 point favorites. Chiefs stacks are always in play, especially with a passing TD expectation of 2.01, the second highest on the slate. However, it’s worth also considering Isiah Pacheco since he appears to be undervalued with other RB chalk and he’s been terrific in two straight weeks. The Rams will be down Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford and just released Darrell Henderson. They are probably tanking at this point. However, Bryce Perkins has rushing upside and like… he’s free? So there are worse things to do in GPPs than a Rams stack with a Kelce bring back.

• MIA/HOU – Total here gets into the good range at 46 with MIA as 12.5 point favorites. Jeff Wilson Jr. will be heavy chalk with no Mosert to compete with carries. He’s about as strong of a RB play as you’ll find in DFS at a midranged price tag as a massive favorite against a bad team. MIA stacks will likely be undervalued while people focus on him, so there’s easy leverage to be had here. This game is actually super easy to figure out: You either play Jeff Wilson or you stack Tua/Tyreek/Waddle. HOU sucks and is starting Kyle Allen, so we don’t have to care about them.

• LAC/ARI – This total is tied for best on the slate at 47 and a short spread of just LAC -4.5. Mike Williams is out, but Keenan Allen returns for the Chargers. He’s underpriced and will likely be popular, but considering the team total of 25.75 and 66.14% adjusted pass rate it’s likely warranted. Austin Ekeler continues to crush as a receiving option, so a stack of Herbert/Ekeler/Allen is completely viable in GPPs. Deandre Hopkins will continue to be the dude for ARI, but they get back Marquise Brown this week as well. They don’t have Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz, or Greg Dortch, so they basically only have Brown and Hopkins at this point. It makes for a super skinny target tree if Kyler can get around Kingsburry’s shitty gameplan. There’s a lot of upside stacking here with a priority on the ARI side.

• SEA/LV – Another total of 47 here and a short spread at SEA -3.5. Both teams are just above a 61% adjusted pass rate, which the Raiders have the highest passing TD expectation on the slate at 2.05. Davante Adams has gotten back to doing Davante Adams things in the last couple weeks and holds the highest projection on the slate. Geno Smith should continue to key in on Metcalf and Lockett in a skinny target tree which makes life easy. The only big note here is Josh Jacobs, who was a late addition to the injury report, might not play. If he doesn’t, it makes Brandon Bolden a strong option. Likewise, on the other side, Ken Walker is a strong option with elite usage on the team with the third highest team total on the slate. You can stack this game lots of different ways and both RBs are viable, so you’ll want exposure here.

NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Geno Smith
RB – Jeff Wilson Jr.
RB – Rachaad White
WR – Keenan Allen
WR – Garrett Wilson
TE – Travis Kelce/Foster Moreau
DST – Chiefs

NFL DFS GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Joe Burrow, Derek Carr, Kyler Murray
RB – Michael Carter, Travis Etienne Jr., Antonio Gibson
WR – Tee Higgins, Davante Adams, Christian Kirk, Mike Evans
TE – Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst, Greg Dulcich
DST – Whoever you want idk man

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