Paydirt NFL DFS Main Slate Breakdown: Week 13!

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This video goes over all the macro and micro decisions that you will have to make for your NFL DFS lineups. We go over team totals and advanced statistics as well as player level things you need to know. There is plenty of conversation on stacks, chalk, and key decision points. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this video goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

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Main Points:

• The Chiefs and the Bengals face off in the late slot for what is sure to be the highest upside game of the slate, fade it at your own risk.
• Even though the game total is high, it doesn’t seem smart to trust the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence coming off a career best game.
• The Eagles and the Titans can attack each other’s weaknesses perfectly, and you should look to leverage that upside in GPPs.

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NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

• DEN/BAL (Total of 39) – Oh look, the Broncos on another super low total game. Nathaniel Hackett and Russell Wilson, an under bettors fantasy combo. Baltimore are 9.5 point favorites here implied at 24.5 points, Broncos at just 14.75. Jerry Jeudy projects relatively well, but he’s a GTD. If he misses Kendall Hinton got nine targets last week and would be firmly in play as a punt. Finally, Greg Dulcich still projects fine and is getting good air yards totals. Overall, there are some fringe options depending on Jerry Jeudy’s health, but you won’t be prioritizing anyone here.

• SEA/LAR (Total of 40) – When this game was originally scheduled the spread is likely flipped, but SEA are 7 point favorites over the injured Rams. No Stafford, Donald, or Kupp available. SEA healthy outside of Travis Homer being out. SEA implied for 1.38 passing TDs and 1.25 rushing TDs, so both routes are viable here. Any of Metcalf, Lockett, or Walker all useful as low owned one offs. Stacking the Seahawks doesn’t require a bringback, but Van Jefferson or Tyler Higbee make sense if you do. Not a priority, but there are certainly attractive pieces.

• WAS/NYG (Total of 40) – This game kind of feels sneaky. The total is relatively low, but we have two mobile QBs that are overperforming their baselines and some clear options for stacking. Giants have scored 20+ in six out of the last eight weeks and might not have Kenny Golladay to take away targets from receivers that don’t suck. Commanders have found an identity in Brian Robinson/Antonio Gibson as a 1-2 punch with McLaurin to spread the field. The over seems attractive here.  From a fantasy perspective, McLaurin and Barkey are high upside options with Antonio Gibson, Brian Robinson, and Darius Slayton all available as cheaper options for larger field GPPs.

• ATL/PIT (Total of 42) – Still on the lower end of totals, this game has hardly any upside at all. ATL refuses to pass at a respectable rate, though it’s been slightly higher in the recent sample at a 50.71% adjusted percentage. They are implied for .83 passing TDs and 1.57 rushing TDs, so we have to like Corderralle Patterson a bit. On the other hand, PIT is implied for 1.41 passing TDs and .88 rushing TDs, almost a perfect mirror in expectation. George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth are the best options for PIT. In sum, you aren’t stacking this game, but Patterson and Freiermuth make for strong upside options in all formats.

• PHI/TEN (Total of 44) – This game is actually a nightmare matchup for both sides. PHI has been getting gashed by the run game lately and Derrick Henry is kind of a good RB. Meanwhile, the Titans prefer to play back in cushion and leave a lot of room underneath which plays well to quick reads for Hurts to Smith/Brown. Interestingly, PHI implied for 1.9 rushing TDs and just .81 passing TDs, which leads to upside for Hurts/Sanders. As you can see, we have at least five options from this game with enough upside to prioritize. Overall, this game is certainly stackable with Henry, Smith, Brown, Hurts, Sanders, and even Treylon Burks all viable as stacking correlatives. Go crazy on it.

• GB/CHI (Total of 44) – It’s really hard to make assumptions about a lot of this game. Is Justin Fields healthy? Is Aaron Rodgers healthy? Is the Packers offense solidified with Watson as a WR1? How will the Bears look without Mooney? A relatively low total doesn’t give a lot of confidence that these offenses are firing on all cylinders, but the prices give room for upside. Likewise, the Packers have a passing TD expectation of 1.77, second highest on the slate. The main options here are Watson, who has 20+ fantasy points in three straight games, as well as Aaron Jones and David Montgomery. Montgomery, who is acting with 75%+ of the marketshare of RB opportunities for CHI, should get minimal ownership and is priced well. It’s also perfectly viable to stack Fields/Claypool/Kmet/Watson and hope you capture all the Bears offense and another lightning bolt from Watson. The total here is middling, but we know the upside exists on these players so feel free to take some shots. 

• MIN/NYJ (Total of 44) – Is Mike White the QB the Jets have been searching for? Probably not, but he made the offense look a hell of a lot more potent than that pouting weirdo Zach Wilson ever did. Both NYJ and MIN have middling passing TD expectations at 1.23 and 1.54, respectively, but both have clear passing trees. Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson make up 50%+ of the targets/air yards for the Vikings, while Garrett Wilson has emerged as a legit WR1 for fantasy with anyone but Zach Wilson. In terms of the RB potential here, the Jets will be using an RBBC, so none of their options are valuable. The Vikings have an underpriced Dalvin Cook, who is getting bell cow usage lately, so if you don’t stack them he makes for a terrific GPP option. There’s a lot to like here, with stacking MIN as the priority and Dalvin Cook as a high upside RB if you aren’t stacking.

• SF/MIA (Total of 45) – MIA comes into this game healthy with a REVENGE NARRATIVE of Mike McDaniel against his old team. SF is short at RB, Deebo is a GTD, and their offensive line has some injuries as well. And yet MIA is still a 4 point underdog. Very curious! This game’s upside for fantasy is completely dependent on Deebo’s health. If he plays, you can stack the MIA side with either CMC, Deebo, or Aiyuk as bring back options. If he doesn’t play, you want to stack MIA with Aiyuk to bring back in as many GPPs as possible. Aiyuk has been an elite receiver in terms of consistency and touchdown upside for the 49ers all year and he’s the one you most want to target in a shootout. That priority is doubled if Deebo misses the game. While Tyreek, Waddle, CMC, and Aiyuk are the priorities here, you can make cases for Kittle and Deebo (if healthy) as well. Great game environment that should score a lot of points.

• CLE/HOU (Total of 46) – Deshaun Watson returns for this game and the assumption is he comes back with the same upside as before his recent controversies. CLE are 8 point favorites and should still maintain a run-heavy gameplan (54.07% adjusted pass rate), though we should expect the passing efficiency to get a nice boost. Nick Chubb will be the popular option, though Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones should garner consideration in large field GPPs as well. David Njoku is out due to injury, so you might be able to work in a cheap Harrison Bryant to make more expensive stacks work as well. HOU will be without Brandin Cooks and starting Kyle Allen at QB, so it’s fair to say they will suck. However, with no Cooks you can use Nico Collins as valuable salary relief in all formats. In sum, 

• LV/LAC (Total of 49) – Interestingly, this game might go a bit under the radar with the pricing on other attractive games. A total of 49 is awesome, and both teams have respectable team totals with a short spread of just 2.5 points. LV is still without Waller and Renfrow, leaving Adams, Hollins, and Moreau to take the vast majority of the receiving work. Meanwhile, LAC will be down Mike Williams, which will lead to Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, and Joshua Palmer shouldering 75% of the receiving work. With two condensed target trees and both teams at a 60%+ adjusted passing rate, this game is destined to be a shootout. The only thing that could go wrong is two coaches fighting over who could be dumber with the play calling. However, considering LV has the highest passing TD on the slate at 1.99 and LAC has the third highest at 1.67, this game needs to be on your radar in GPPs. A focus on the LV side makes more sense from a pricing perspective, but you can stack it a million ways and still be right.

• DET/JAX (Total of 51) – High total? Check. Low spread of just one point? Check. Two QBs that are more game managers than gunslingers? Ch…eck? This is a really weird game where the total is built on the assumption that DET literally does not know how to play or spell defense. Trevor Lawrence is coming off just the fourth 300+ yard game of his career (not a typo) and travels to DET to try to match it. Oh, and three of those four 300+ yard games came at home. But enough of the foreboding stuff. Chrstian Kirk and Zay Jones have had 50%+ of the targets and air yards for JAX in three straight weeks and four of the last five games. Amon-Ra St. Brown has had 8+ targets in every game he has played while Healthy. It would certainly make sense to stack up Lawrence/Kirk/Jones/St.Brown in small field GPPs and ignore Lawrence possibly not being a high upside option. For the running game, Etienne looks like the best RB play on the slate, and makes for a more appealing priority than stacking the Jags. D’Andre Swift had some good passing game usage last week and could be primed to have a ceiling game. In short, the individual pieces all have individual upside but stacking seems like chasing upside.

• KC/CIN (Total of 53) – There’s not a lot to break down here. Ja’Marr Chase should be back for this one. It’s two of the best QBs in the league facing off in a primetime game. You should do whatever you can to stack this game as heavily as possible. Punt everywhere else. Who cares! It’s going to be a passing explosion and make every other game look like 40s football.

NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

(Added after 10am EST)

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Trevor Lawrence
RB – Travis Etienne Jr.
RB – Samaje Perine
WR – Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR – Garrett Wilson
TE – Pat Freiermuth
DST – Steelers

NFL DFS GPP Core:

(Added after 10am EST)

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Derek Carr, Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins
RB – Samaje Perine, Dalvin Cook, Austin Ekeler, David Montgomery
WR – Christian Kirk, Justin Jefferson, Chris Moore, Amari Cooper
TE – Travis Kelce, TJ Hockenson, Foster Moreau
DST – Whoever you want, my dudes

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