Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This video goes over all the macro and micro decisions that you will have to make for your NFL DFS lineups. We go over team totals and advanced statistics as well as player level things you need to know. There is plenty of conversation on stacks, chalk, and key decision points. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this video goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!
NFL DFS Slate breakdown
Roster Construction and pivoting
This appears to be a pretty solid week for GPPs with some questionable chalk and chasing of outlier events from weeks past. While we have another set of $6k running backs with terrific ceilings, we still lack good value across the board. What this lead to last week was very condensed ownership on the few value plays available. This week, that is leading to excess ownership on Robert Tonyan, Joshua Palmer, and Kyle Pitts. These guys at their price points will likely show up in a lot of optimals, and hence will get more ownership than they deserve.
The way to leverage this kind of thing in GPPs is simply by pivoting to lower owned players at the same position and price. Joshua Palmer, for instance, should have twice the ownership of Christian Kirk even with similar projections. Chris Godwin projects for 18% ownership while DK metcalf at nearly the same price projects for 7% ownership. These kind of decisions help you pass the field in large tournaments.
Best and worst spots to attack
The Dolphins continue to be a strong stack in all formats with a super condensed target tree. The key to this stack is Tyreek Hill, not Jaylen Waddle, so make sure to keep your priorities straight. Other good spots to stack are the Vikings, Rams, and Bengals. All these teams have impact WRs to focus on and upside in terms of a heavy passing attack in the redzone.
Some of the more overvalued spots today are the Jaguars, Falcons, and Colts. Players from these teams are going to carry some heavy ownership and might run into macro issues. Travis Etienne is a fantastic option, but stacking the Jaguars leaves a lot of upside on the table. Deon Jackson is projected to be big chalk, but doesn't have the same expectation that people desire in terms of receiving upside. Be careful with what chalk you eat from these teams.
NFL DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.
QB – Josh Allen OR Geno Smith
RB – Rhamondre Stevenson
RB – Travis Etienne
WR – Chris Godwin
WR – Joshua Palmer
TE – Robert Tonyan
DST – Panthers
NFL DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.
QB – Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields
RB – Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Travis Etienne
WR – Darnell Mooney, DJ Moore, Mike Evans
TE – TJ Hockenson, Tyler Higbee, Evan Engram
DST – Whoever you want idk man
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