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Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Week 1

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

Chalk Plays:

  • Jamaal Williams (21.51%)
  • Justin Jefferson (17.59%)
  • Alexander Mattison (17.52%)
  • Tyreek Hill (17.45%)
  • Kenneth Walker III (16.05%)

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Jamaal Williams

Once we factor in William's Top Finish %, median projection, and LevX he looks like a pretty bad chalk play. For small field contests this is a good place to pivot. Additionally, you can lower exposure for MME.

Justin Jefferson

Unlike Jamaal Williams above, Jefferson has no comparable pivot at his position. The only pivot option is McCaffrey which would have to be in the FLEX spot.

Alexander Mattison

Alexander Mattison is another good spot to pivot from the field. Both Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones look like considerably better plays in GPPs. Furthermore, Green Bay has some injury concerns at receiver which could boost the pass-catching upside for Jones out of the backfield.

Tyreek Hill

While Ja' Marr Chase is a viable pivot to Tyreek, you don't gain much leverage in median, ceiling, or ownership. Similarly, Austin Ekler is a viable pivot, however, he rates worse than Chase.

Kenneth Walker III

Kenneth Walker looks like the worst of the three popular running backs considering his price, projection, and Top Finish%. Dameon Pierce and Najee Harris would be the preferred pivots in this range.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

The 3 popular mid-range running backs all look like bad chalk and the preferred place to pivot. Not only are there multiple alternatives, but none of them have a raw points projection to justify their ownership. The popular expensive receivers on the other hand, look like players you'll at least want to match the field on.

Good luck and let's bake some bread!

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