Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
Chalk DFS Plays:
- Rachaad White (26.88%)
- Marquise Brown (25.69%)
- Tank Dell (21.68%)
- Joe Mixon (20.81%)
- DeAndre Hopkins (19.08%)
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Rachaad White stands out in the midrange as a strong play. Moreover, there are no pivots that rate better in either median or ceiling. You can certainly fade him, but it would solely be an ownership decision. Additionally, with the exception of Terry McLaurin all of the potential pivots also project for double digit ownership.
Marquise Brown looks like a strong value at his price considering his median and ceiling combination. However, neither projection is significantly higher than the players around him to warrant 25% ownership. Notably, we see Terry McLaurin once again as a solid midrange pivot option below 10%. James Conner would be the direct leverage, and Dionte Johnson can be considered as well.
Tank Dell stands out as the strongest of the midrange WR options. However, considering his ownership you may want to avoid him as a one off. He would be the preferred option in HOU stacks or as a runback with CIN stacks. McLaurin, Deebo, and Christian Kirk are potential pivot options.
Joe Mixon looks like a good fade in GPPs assuming you have some salary to work with. Kenneth Walker III projects identically for less ownership, and unowned David Montgomery looks incredible. Of the chalk RBs Rachaad White would be the clear priority over Mixon if you have to choose.
DeAndre Hopkins ownership might be more rooted in nostalgia and former glory than projections. Price, median, ceiling, value, none of these particularly stand out. However, he does make a natural mini-stack partner with Rachaad White which may be the best way to play him. If simply playing a chalk WR in his range Dionte Johnson is cheaper, slightly lower owned, and projects better.
DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts
Rachaad White and Tank Dell look like the strongest chalk options this week. Furthermore, each has a natural chalk pairing with DeAndre Hopkins and Joe Mixon respectively. This type of chalk core could be useful if building out contrarian stacks. Notably, all of these chalk plays are in the midrange. Players like Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, Christian Kirk, James Conner, and Dionte Johnson are all potential pivots.
Good luck and let's bake some bread!
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