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Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Week 4

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

Chalk DFS Plays:

  • Kyren Williams (21.72%)
  • Pat Freiermuth (18.06%)
  • Adam Thielen (16.93%)
  • Tony Pollard (16.85%)
  • Miles Sanders (16.41%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link:

Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams is expected to be the highest owned player on the slate at 21.72% ownership. There's noticeable void of alternative choices within the RB position. Miles Sanders will also be popular which leaves Zack Moss as the only true RB pivot. However, at the FLEX spot comparably priced receivers like DeAndre Hopkins or Brandon Aiyuk, who have lower ownerships of 4.00% and 2.87% respectively, can offer a distinct edge.

Pat Freiermuth

Freiermuth is inexplicably projected to be 18% owned and looks like the worst piece of chalk on the slate by a wide margin. His median projection, ceiling, and Top Finish% are all mediocre at best. Furthermore, there are 7 viable pivots at his position.

Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen looks like solid chalk at his price point. Tank Dell projects to be almost as highly owned and a lot of optimizers are putting them together in lineups. Elijah Moore would be a pivot we could consider but the QB situation for Cleveland is questionable.

Tony Pollard

Similar to Kyren Williams, there are no pivots to Pollard at the RB position. However, at the FLEX there are several receiver options with lower ownership. Ja'Maar Chase rates as a better play outright, while CeeDee Lamb provides direct leverage. Lastly, AJ Brown and Jaylen Waddle can also be considered.

Miles Sanders

Miles Sanders being “good” versus “bad” chalk likely depends where you play him. At the RB spot the only real pivot is Rachaad White, or Zack Moss who projects slightly worse. However, at the FLEX there are several low owned receivers options that project better and with higher ceilings.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

Kyren Williams and Adam Thielen are more roster-dependent plays on this slate. Both can be integrated into lower-owned roster constructions but consider pivoting if your lineup is already saturated with high-owned players, to maintain a balanced approach. Tony Pollard and Miles Sanders look fine at their position, but there are multiple pivots with comparably priced receivers. Lastly, Pat Freiermuth is awful chalk.

Good luck and let's bake some bread!

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