Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
Chalk DFS Plays:
- Jordan Addison (19.15%)
- Travis Etienne Jr. (19.15%)
- D'Andre Swift (18.28%)
- Ja'Marr Chase(18.20%)
- Joe Mixon (17.50%)
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Jordan Addison looks fine in a vacuum. However, when we see how much better his pivots project in all categories and with lower ownership there is no justification to eating Addison chalk.
Travis Etienne Jr.
ETN finds himself in a similar situation as Addison as he projects to be one of the weakest options in his range. Jacobs, Kamara, and Montgomery are all strong positional pivots, while Mike Evans can be considered in the FLEX. Due to these factors, ETN is a clear pivot spot in GPPs.
D'Andre Swift also looks like an easy pivot with both Raheem Mostert and Kyren Williams rating as far better plays. In the FLEX you can also consider DJ Moore and Brandon Aiyuk.
Ja'Marr Chase looks to be in a smash spot once again this week. Despite getting a slight price increase, he is still too cheap for his ceiling. There are no other player in his range that can match his combination of median and ceiling.
Joe Mixon is in a similar spot to D'Andre Swift with multiple players in his range having higher projections with lower ownership. That being said, two of those pivots are receivers so they would have to be played in the FLEX, but Mostert would be the positional pivot. Furthermore, with Ja'Marr Chase in a smash spot you'll have to ask yourself how much exposure to CIN you want.
DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts
Ja'Marr Chase is the strongest of the chalk options and it isn't remotely close. The only reason to fade Chase is if your construction avoids the $8k range. Conversely, the rest of the chalk options look thin. Thielen and Nico Collins rate so much better than Addison the pivot finder constraints had to be adjusted for the article this week. Similarly, the chalk RB trio of ETN, Swift, Mixon all have multiple positional pivots available. Mostert and Kamara look like strong pivots at the RB position, and Thielen, Nico, Moore, Aiyuk at WR.
Good luck and let's bake some bread!
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