Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
halk DFS Plays:
- Zay Flowers (23.29%)
- Jordan Addison (22.73%)
- Joe Mixon (21.13%)
- Josh Downs(20.41%)
- Breece Hall (18.75%)
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Zay Flowers doesn't necessarily project poorly, however, there are a multitude of options in his price range. Granted, a few of these options, like Mixon and Addison, will also be popular so they don't quite qualify as pivots. Positionally, Marquise Brown, Nico Collins, and Terry McLaurin look like strong low-owned pivot options.
Jordan Addison has had a solid start to the year so he comes in with a solid median projection. Addison looks like a somewhat more secure chalk play than Flowers only because most of his pivots are at the RB position. Similar to Flowers, Nico Collins and Marquise Browns are positional pivots.
Joe Mixon will be one of three popular running backs this week. Furthermore, all three running backs show up as pivots off of each other. With no real positional pivots the chalk RBs look stronger than the chalk WRs. If playing Mixon in the FLEX, there are potential pivots in TJ Hockenson and Nico Collins.
Josh Downs has been a solid value option pretty much each week, however, up until now his ownership has been relatively low. With a major boost in ownership the amount of pivots exploded. As of this writing there are 12 players, at least half of which are also WR, that rate better than Downs at lower ownership.
Breece Hall is another member of the three-headed chalk RB group. However, Hall does have a positional pivot with significantly lower ownership in D'Andre Swift. If playing Breece Hall in the FLEX, Hockenson once again pops as a pivot.
DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts
The popular players this week are a trio of mdirange RBs in Joe Mixon, Breece Hall, and Isaiah Pacheco. Also popular will be the WR group of Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, and Josh Downs. Flowers and Addison look fine in a vacuum, but Downs is a clear fade in GPPs. Marquise Brown and Nico Collins look like two of the stronger WR pivots for GPPs, while D'Andre Swift is the main pivot option at RB. Additionally, TJ Hockenson is an intriguing pivot in the FLEXsince he is also direct leverage off of Addison.
Good luck and let's bake some bread!
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