Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
Chalk DFS Plays:
- Chuba Hubbard (25.9%)
- AJ Brown (22.81%)
- Bijan Robinson (22.69%)
- Alvin Kamara (22.46%)
- Demario Douglas (20.70%)
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In order to fit all the pivots into a single screenshot, the Pivot Finder had to be limited to just the RB position. However, despite limiting the amount of options there are still five better options than Hubbard. It remains to be seen if his ownership projection will hold, but if he comes in at double-digits he looks like an easy fade.
A.J. Brown stands out as a strong play in his price range. Moreover, his best pivot is Alvin Kamara who projects to be just as highly owned and many lineups will have them together. If you are willing to sacrifice some median projection for similar ceilings at lower ownership you can look to CeeDee Lamb or Saquon Barkley.
Bijan Robinson comes in with a strong median projection, high ceiling, and is simply underpriced for his upside. This play comes down more to how much you trust the ATL offense and coaching staff overall. There are a couple of positional pivots in D'Andre Swift and Rachaad White. Additionally, you can look at DJ Moore and Nico Collins in the FLEX.
Alvin Kamara is a premier play on the slate given his combination of median projection and ceiling not unlike AJ Brown. Similarly, there are simply no pivots that project all that close. However, there are still some options with comparable ceilings. Once again, CeeDee Lamb and Saquon Barkely find themselves as the best pivot options above $7.5k.
Demario Douglas projects fine for his price, however, there are three players within a fantasy point of his median projection. Furthermore, all three pivots have higher ceilings. This is likely a spot that depends on the size of the contest you are in as well as the combined ownership of the rest of your lineup.
DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts
Alvin Kamara and AJ Brown look like strong high-upside options you can build around. However, Saquon Barkley and CeeDee Lamb can be used as pivots respectively. Kyle Pitts stands out as direct leverage against Bijan Robinson as well as a pivot off of Demario Douglas. Regarding Demario Douglas, if you play him you can help offset the ownership by playing him with an opposing WAS player or as a runback to a WAS stack.
Good luck and let's bake some bread!
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