Paydirt NFL DFS Week 15 Saturday Game Notes

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

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Main Points:

• The highest total is in the MIN/IND game, but the highest upside belongs to the Dolphins and Bills.
• Jonathan Taylor is by far the best RB play on the slate based on price and volume, but Dalvin Cook is probably the better GPP play in that game.
• Even with a low implied total, the Browns have a strong passing TD expectation and should be considered in GPPs because of it.

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NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team totals and touchdown projections

• MIN/IND is the highest O/U on the board at 48, a full 10+ points higher than CLE/BAL.
• Likewise, MIN is implied for the highest passing TD total at 1.72.
• However, CLE is implied for the second highest passing TD expectation at 1.63, which puts them firmly in GPP consideration at very low ownership.
• BUF are the biggest favorites at -7.5 while having the highest rushing TD expectation, which puts Singletary/Cook in play.

There’s some really interesting ownership projections today. MIA has the lowest projected stack ownership and with how potent their offense has shown to be this season that should pique interest. They’ve been mostly bad in weeks past and the weather sucks but there’s definitely leverage there. On the other hand, there should be a large chunk of ownership on MIN but it’s 100% deserved. You want to stack MIN/IND in some way that derives relative value, which is likely fading either of Pittman or Hockenson.

DFS Game notes and strategy

Ravens vs. Browns

• Lowest total on the slate, but the Browns have passing TD upside here based on the models.
• Considering that, they make for an awesome GPP stack at no ownership.
• It’s very, very hard to look at this game as a shootout, which lends itself more to one off and secondary correlations.
• If the Browns win, it’s likely on the back of Chubb/Cooper with an efficient day from Watson.
• If the Ravens win, it’s likely on the back of Dobbins/Edwards backfield along with Mark Andrews.
• Neither of these game scenarios look at Huntley as a viable option, but Watson with Cooper and Njoku can work.

Bills vs. Dolphins

• Middling total of 43 pretty much entirely based on the weather with some slight influence on recency bias against the Dolphins.
• Worth noting, however, that in the last four weeks MIA is both the most pass heavy team in the adjusted script at 73% as well as being the most aggressive in the league when throwing at 9.76 air yards per throw.
• Sure, the results haven’t been there, but this game has by far the highest upside potential on the slate.
• If the Bills win here, it comes in two ways: A stomp, with the Dolphins unable to move the ball with some more bad luck, or in a shootout. If they win in a stomp, it’s likely that Singletary ends up optimal on this slate. If they win in a shootout, Josh Allen ends up optimal.
• If the Dolphins win, it’s only in a shootout. There’s not very many likely scenarios of them stomping the Bills at home, so stacking the Dolphins means that you are going very heavy on this game.
• With the pricing on this slate it makes sense to stack this game as much as possible in at least a couple lineups, since you can fit all the power players without much issue.

Vikings vs. Colts

• People are going to talk themselves into Matt Ryan stacks and my god that sounds like a miserable way to spend your Saturday.
• Highest total on the slate, but still below 50 overall, so it’s not like this is looking to be a major shootout or anything.
• Vikings project for the most stack ownership with Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson both the highest projected ownership at their positions.
• Michael Pittman looks really popular, because people have stockholm syndrome, so he makes for one of the easiest pivot points on the slate.
• If the Vikings win, it can come in multiple ways. They can win in a shootout, where they fumble away a lead or have to play from behind with a Jonathan Taylor nuke. They can win in a stomp with Dalvin Cook eating the Colts alive and Jefferson having 175 yards. They can win a low scoring game where both of these offenses look like they are led by Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan. Lots of acceptable scenarios here.
• If the Colts win, it’s pretty much just in a low scoring affair with Jonathan Taylor crushing. This offense isn’t built to have sustained scoring through the air, so if the Vikings get a lead it can get ugly.
• Overall, Jonathan Taylor is the obvious best RB on this slate but definitely comes with risk if the Vikings get a lead. Dalvin Cook is probably the best leverage RB on the slate for that reason, considering that game scenario lends itself to a Dalvin ceiling game.
• You should have a Vikings stack here, but make sure you pay attention to Dalvin Cook if you stack a different one.

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