Paydirt NFL DFS Week 17 Thoughts and Cores

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

---

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team totals and touchdown projections

Overall Slate DFS Thoughts

• Ownership outside of DST (we will get to that in a sec) is generally spread out on a slate with a lot of moving parts. Guys like Amon-Ra St.Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Garrett Wilson continue to get a lot of traction as they have all season. As of now it doesn’t look like there is a lot of obscene RB chalk, but I would be surprised if Brian Robinson doesn’t end up in the 30% range in most GPPs. Overall so long as you are prudent about combos around ASB, Wilson, and Robinson you shouldn’t worry about ownership too much.
• As far as DST, the 49ers DST is way too cheap for a spot against LV and is going to be massively owned. Likely assuming somewhere in the 30% range. The roadmap here is as follows: If you have a low owned stack, go ahead and play the 49ers DST. If you have 4-5 higher owned pieces, you should be avoiding the 49ers DST like the plague. It’s an obvious misprice and good play, but keep the overall ownership of your lineup in mind.
• Looking at QB, the field is mostly on Jared Goff, Justin Fields, and Patrick Mahomes. My guess here is these three take up somewhere around 50% of the total ownership at QB with Fields being the highest of the bunch. All three project well and are fine plays and stacks overall. You can make some strong pivots to other games here, with some of the best options being GB/MIN and NYJ/SEA. All of those teams have strong stacking components and good pricing on the QBs for upside. Likewise, pivoting from Mahomes to Russell Wilson with Nathaniel Hackett gone is a really strong play in large field GPPs.
• For RBs, the chalk is pretty good overall. There’s still not near enough ownership on Rhamondre Stevenson at a $1,000 discount. The big pivot here is going to be looking at D’Andre Swift at no ownership in the highest owned game on the slate. People will be playing Brian Robinson instead, but Swift has slate breaking upside and should be a part of your playpool and likely a priority in 3-max contests. Biggest avoid is probably Tyler Allgeier in a timeshare at significant ownership.
• With WRs, Greg Dortch at $3k will be really interesting. Current ownership projections have him around the 15% mark, but 25% ownership wouldn’t be surprising by any means. He joins a group of cheap WRs like Olamide Zaccheus/Drake London, Zay Jones, and Brandin Cooks as the cheaper options to fill out lineups. Highest upside guys are going to be Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson, with Davante Adams being a super volatile and super low owned upside piece if you believe Jarrett Stidham doesn’t completely suck ass. As usual, WR considerations are mostly a consequence of stack selection with the cheap options being used for salary relief.
• Finally looking towards TE, it’s basically Travis Kelce or use the TE in your stack. George Kittle and Evan Engram are fine options for their prices, but after that it’s a complete crapshoot.

Overall it is way too easy to build a CHI stack with ASB and Brian Robinson. That’s a combo you have to be careful with in terms of eating chalk. The MIN/GB and KC/DEN games are probably my favorite spots to attack in GPPs considering the upside and “rivalry” aspects that I care a little more about late in the season. Building with an expensive RB and cheap RB is going to be the most popular roster construction, so paying down at both or up and both is what you should aim for overall. Finally, the 49ers DST is a great play but only if your lineup can eat the ownership.

NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Jared Goff
RB – Brian Robinson
RB – Christian McCaffrey
WR – Amon-Ra St.Brown
WR – Greg Dortch
TE – Evan Engram/Travis Kelce
DST – 49ers

NFL DFS GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Desmond Ridder, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson
RB – Rhamondre Stevenson, Saquon Barkley, James Conner
WR – Drake London, Tyreek Hill, Robbie Anderson
TE – Travis Kelce, Cole Kmet, TJ Hockenson
DST – Whoever you want

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles