Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!
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NFL DFS main slate breakdown:
Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections
- The highest team total on the slate is MIA at 29.00, the lowest on the slate is NYJ at 15.50.
- The highest game total on the slate is WAS/MIA at 49.50 with a handful of games sitting at 47 or 47.50.
- Highest passing TD expectation is MIA at 1.93, with HOU a close second at 1.91 followed by a significant drop to DEN at 1.54.
- Highest rushing TD expectation is MIA at 1.71 with a significant drop to the second highest for DET at 1.33.
- Highest dropback expectations go to WAS by a lot at 43.97 with the next highest being NO at 39.29.
Here are the top 10 overall stacks in median projection:
Really not a lot of surprises here. MIA, PHI, and HOU are all up there in terms of either team total, passing TD expectation, or both. SF is part of the best game environment on the slate against the Eagles. The only team kind of out of nowhere here is LAC and their projection is likely inflated a bit by Keenan Allen’s median expectation of 1,453 targets.
Ownership makes a lot of sense as well, though I don’t think that the MIA ownership is really representative of the stack as a whole. Both Tua and Waddle should be under 10% owned.
Sorting by team total:
The big outlier here for me is PIT, who has a healthy team total at above 23 points and is almost completely free to stack. That team total is a full touchdown above their season average. I said last week I was happy to sit out of the first game without Canada and see if Pickett could ball, and last week he showed signs of balls. This team total and the Cardinals defense have me thinking that they are drastically undervalued on this slate and are too cheap.
Highest projected ownership
- Zack Moss bigly chalk here. He’s a lock in small fields and cash games.
- Brevin Jordan chalk is… worse. But he’s a cheap TE and the position is generally inconsequential.
Quick note: Both Olave and Breece Hall are chalk options on FD. I think both are fine, I don’t really have many notes on them.
For Zack Moss: RBs have mostly been bad against the Titans all year and people were burned badly on it early on, but have since started to ignore it again. Moss had a great role early in the year. In his three great fantasy outcomes (20.7, 25.5, and 36.5 fantasy points) he had 18, 30, and 23 carries and the third performance (against TEN) had a 56 yard TD which supercharged his outcomes. However, he has had a couple outcomes of 18 carries with less than 10 fantasy points, and it’s fair to argue that Moss had the benefit of Anthony Richardson as a threat to play off of.
Overall for the price he’s an obvious play in small field stuff but at 60% owned you have to consider the downside of any play in NFL DFS. I’m not suggesting a fade in large field but I do think that you should be looking at how builds look without him as well.
The other thing worth mentioning with Moss chalk is that he will be paired heavily with Tyreek Hill. I would absolutely suggest making a rule of playing just one of them in lineups in large field stuff.
Outside of the Moss chalk which is really the biggest piece of this slate, I think a lot of the chalk is fine. I would not be playing Brevin Jordan in GPPs outside of a stack, but other than that I don’t have a lot of quarrels with the popular plays.
I don’t really have a list of undervalued options this week, but the regular guys apply: Alvin Kamara looks undervalued, Adam Thielen got a price drop after a disastrous week, and Keenan Allen is underowned.
But what I think is more valuable this week is how you build out stacks and where you allocate your salary. For me, I think too many people are going stars and scrubs this week while jamming in value plays like Moss and Brevin Jordan to get the high priced combos of Tyreek/CMC/AJB. I don’t think that’s right.
There are like 15-20 really, really strong mid-range to high-mid players that are in the single digit ownership range this week. I mentioned a whole lot of them in the video breakdown, and you’ll see a bunch in the expected fantasy points segment below, but I really like balanced builds this week with cheaper stacks. Focusing on the expensive RBs and paying down at the WRs and stacks makes a lot more sense to me than trying to fit in this giga-expensive stacks like MIA and PHI.
One last note is I think that Henry/Downs lineup secondary combos are really nice this week. Both should carry individual ownership but I don't think the combo will get much steam and it plays really well in the lineups I'm liking to build.
Usage and expected fantasy points
First, sorted by exValue, which is the value offered based on their salary and expected PPR points:
General note: I’m not touching any CLE players. Joe Flacco is old as fucking dust.
Zack Moss tops this list, but right behind him is Kyren Williams who is projected for single digit ownership. I don’t really trust that, I think he’s around 15% when we turn over the cards, but he’s a great play regardless.
Noah Brown is another player on this list that is kind of blowing my mind. He is the best value play on the slate in a high total game that isn’t getting ownership.
Next, sorted by raw expected PPR points:
As noted above, look at all this midrange! With no ownership! It’s crazy. If there was ever a week for me to use my one-time and the chalk builds failed, it would be this week, because I just think people are playing the slate wrong and ignoring balanced build combos.
One name that pops for me here is De’Von Achane. Dude gets massive ownership at like 10 touches per game but is appropriately priced in a spot with a 29 team total and people don’t wanna touch him? He’s an awesome play.
Other names here that are really enticing are Jahmyr Gibbs, D’Andre Swift, and Mike Evans. A secondary combo of Adam Thielen and Mike Evans seems pretty sick, and if you don’t wanna go Mike Evans, you can absolutely look at Rachaad White and Adam Thielen stacks.
Finally let's sort this by Ownership:
I think I have talked enough about the ownership, but this is a pretty good representation of where the good stuff is. Brevin Jordan probably has a ceiling of 12 fantasy points, so playing him as a one off is an absolute no go. A lot of these guys have expected fantasy outcomes that are relatively low. Josh Downs at 9.95, Diontae Johnson at just 10.29. Jaylen Warren getting 20% ownership while overproducing his baselines is probably a signal to fade.
Overall slate notes
- Main stacks are pretty straight forward: MIA, PHI, and HOU are the heavy hitters with PIT, DEN, and SF being the value stacks to utilize.
- Don’t play Brevin Jordan as a one off, and if you are playing Zack Moss just make sure he’s not paired with Tyreek Hill in larger fields.
- The balanced builds look way undervalued this week, and I think make the most sense with strong cheap stacks we can build around.
- I’m realizing I said that last week as well and hey, maybe I’ll get luckier this week than I did last week!
- In the past couple weeks we didn’t have a big focus on bring backs, but this week makes for a good opportunity to stack as much as possible and max out correlations.
NFL DFS Cash Game Core:
(Finalized after 12pm EST)
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.
QB – Brock Purdy
RB – Zack Moss
RB – Rachaad White
WR – Tyreek Hill
FLEX – Christian McCaffrey
TE – Brevin Jordan
DST – Falcons DST
NFL DFS GPP Core:
(Finalized after 10am EST)
This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.
QB – Brock Purdy, Russel Wilson, Jalen Hurts, Kenny Pickett
RB – Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry, Zack Moss, Alvin Kamara
WR – Tyreek Hill, Josh Downs, George Pickens, Courtland Sutton, Brandon Aiyuk
TE – George Kittle, Pat Freiermuth, Trey McBride
DST – Whoever you want
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