Tag: Betting

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Sandro Mamukelashvili is projected to be the highest owned player in DFS tonight on both sites. The Spurs essentially have no frontcourt which leaves Mamu as one of the last men standing. Accordingly, he should get as many minutes as he can handle regardless of game script. Additionally, he’s actually a fairly solid fantasy point per minute guy as he’s averaging 0.84 FPPM on the season. A fade is never completely off the table in GPPs, but this is pretty strong value chalk.
• Keita Bates-Diop stands to benefit for all of the same reasons as Mamu mentioned above, however, he’s even cheaper. Due to his low price he rates out as one of the strongest values on the slate. That said, playing multiple high-owned players from a clearly tanking team is not for the faint of heart. While both Bates-Diop and Mamu rate well, be mindful of the collective ownership of your lineups tonight.
• Jaden Ivey will be another popular option from a tanking team tonight. However, the problem is he’s not particularly cheap at a price above $6k on both sites. Additionally, his median projection kind of just sucks relative to his price (roughly 32 fpts). At high ownership this is a spot you can look to pivot off of in GPPs for sure.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Trae Young

AJ Griffin

Keita Bates-Diop

Sandro Mamukelashvili

Franz Wagner

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Shai Glizzy, Killian Hayes, Markelle Fultz

SG: Paul George, Donovan Mitchell, Bradley Beal

SF: Trey Murphy III, Brandon Ingram, Kawhi Leonard

PF: Keegan Murray, Cam Johnson, Kristaps Porzingis

C: Jarrett Allen (if IN), Jonas Valanciunas, Ivica Zubac

DFS Popular Player: Sandro Mamukelashvili

Price: $4,200/$5,100
Own%: 70.00%/69.45%

DFS Value Player: Keita Bates-Diop

Price: $3,700/$5,100
5x%: 71%/28%

Player to Avoid in DFS: Jaden Ivey

Price: $6,700/$6,800
LevX: -19.61/-31.28

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

Trae Young as the popular/opto spend up is one of the glaring spots to pivot off of in GPPs. Likewise, AJ Griffin seems like forced value as he actually doesn’t project all that well even considering his cheap price. Additionally, there is some direct leverage opportunity by going with some of the lower owned Pistons and Spurs. With only 6 games and some very concentrated chalk this is a good slate for GPPs. Direct leverage, price range pivots, and lower owned studs are all in play tonight whether you go with one of those routes or multiple. The one thing to be mindful of is the amount of leverage needed for the types of contests you’re in. Good luck tonight!

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• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
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• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Simone Fontecchio is not the new special at Olive Garden. He is, in fact, one of the highest owned DFS plays on the slate tonight. The Italian rookie has seen his minutes increase steadily and is currently projected for over 25 minutes tonight. He’s currently $3.6k on Draftkings and $4.7k on Fanduel. With limited pivot options available this may be a plug and play spot.
• Kelly Olynyk averages around a fantasy point per minute and should play over 30 minutes tonight. Furthermore, the Jazz will be without Markkanen, Sexton, and Clarkson which shortens the rotation and opens up a ton of usage. Olynyk is priced in the $5k range on both sites and has 40-point upside. Due to these combination of factors he rates out as one of the stronger value plays on tonight’s slate.
• Terry Rozier will be high owned, isn’t particularly cheap, and is more volatile than people may realize. Additionally, the Hornets have absolutely zero incentive to actually win games at this point in the season. Granted, there is some opportunity here with Ball, Martin, and Williams all out but just play one of the cheaper Hornets and fade Rozier in GPPs.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Terry Rozier

Kelly Oubre Jr.

Simone Fontecchio

Taurean Prince

Kelly Olynyk

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Brunson, Tyus Jones

SG: Ochai Agbaji, Klay Thompson, Zach LaVine

SF: Talen Horton-Tucker, Josh Hart, DeMar DeRozan

PF: Trey Lyles (if IN), Jaren Jackson Jr (if IN)., Julius Randle

C: Kevon Looney, Nikola Vucevic, Myles Turner

DFS Popular Player: Simone Fontecchio

Price: $3,600/$4,700
Own%: 40.64%/30.15%

DFS Value Player: Kelly Olynyk

Price: $5,700/$5,800
5x%: 34%/35%

Player to Avoid in DFS: Terry Rozier

Price: $7,900/$8,400
LevX: -28.19/-34.71

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

Chalk Jazz and Hornets just feels gross but that’s late season NBA DFS for you. The wise move is probably to prioritize the value chalk over the mid-range chalk as that is usually harder to pivot off of. Additionally, there are some direct leverage opportunities off of some of the higher owned plays tonight in guys like Horton-Tucker, Dennis Smith Jr., Mike Conley, and Tyus Jones. While some of them may not be sub-10% owned, they still project for about half the ownership of some of their teammates. With the amount of value this is likely a double spend up slate so keep that in mind as it will likely be a popular construction. Good luck tonight!

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Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Desmond Bane is in the exact same spot as last night, the only difference is the opponent. The Grizzlies go from being on the road versus Spurs to at home versus the Warriors. Bane should play over 30 minutes and has produced at a solid rate with no Morant. He will be massively popular but is a strong play as far as median projection/ceiling combo.
• Nickeil Alexander-Walker grades out as a top DFS value play tonight for the Timberwolves. Anthony Edwards was injured yesterday and is currently questionable. However, given that he had to be helped off the court there’s a very high chance he sits the B2B. In his absence NAW played 27 minutes and currently projects for 28 minutes tonight. His price hasn’t really been adjusted by either site which makes him a hard fade.
• Tyus Jones will once again be popular tonight for the Grizzlies, however, he has a lower median projection than Bane which leads to more viable pivots off of Jones. Granted, he smashed last night but that was also against a tanking Spurs team in overtime.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Tyus Jones

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Desmond Bane

Jordan Nwora

Joel Embiid

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Coby White, Steph Curry, Malcolm Brogdon

SG: Tyler Herro, Talen Horton-Tucker, Bradley Beal

SF: Kyle Anderson, Buddy Hield, Zach LaVine

PF: Keegan Murray, Kelly Olynyk, Scottie Barnes

C: Draymond Green, Walker Kessler, Jaren Jackson Jr.

DFS Popular Player: Desmond Bane

Price: $7,800/$8,100
Own%: 42.53%/56.03%

DFS Value Player: Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Price: $3,600/$4,200
5x%: 60%/49%

Player to Avoid in DFS: Tyus Jones

Price: $6,900/$6,500
LevX: -15.29/-49.53

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

Based on current ownership and optimizer builds 3 Grizzlies and 2 Wolves is going to be a popular starting point for DFS lineups tonight. Pretty much everyone on the Grizzlies is going to carry ownership so there’s not a ton of leverage, but JJJ and Brooks would be the two lowest owned. As for Minnesota, if Ant is out you probably just take the free square in NAW, however, Conley and Kyle Anderson will be lower owned than him and worth a look in GPPs. Lastly, the value tonight is a little cheaper than yesterday leading to more stars and scrubs builds. Thus, an alternative approach in GPPs would be to go with a more balanced build. Good luck tonight!

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Powerful tools for every sport

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Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Desmond Bane continues to benefit from the ongoing Morant drama. He was hindered by a blowout in the Grizzlies last game, but assuming this game goes according to plan he should be back to playing over 30 minutes. Additionally, Bane gets a great matchup as the Spurs are absolutely dreadful. He will be massively popular but is a strong DFS play as far as median projection.
• Jeremy Sochan stands out in the low mid range as a decent value play tonight. The caveat here is that the value overall on this slate is pretty bad due to the efficient pricing. That said, Sochan should play 30 minutes and is averaging over a fantasy point per minute. He should have a relatively solid floor here compared to some of the other “value” options tonight.
• Xavier Tillman is another Memphis player projected to be heavy chalk. However, as of now there are no less than 10 comparable pivots at lower ownership. The play makes sense in cash games, but this is an ideal spot to fade in GPPs.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Tyus Jones

Darius Garland

Desmond Bane

Evan Mobley

Xavier Tillman

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Kevin Porter Jr.

SG: Jalen Green, Derrick White, Dejounte Murray

SF: Kelly Oubre Jr., Jaden McDaniels, KJ Martin

PF: Herbert Jones, Jerami Grant, Jayson Tatum

C: Anthony Davis, Clint Capela, Rudy Gobert

DFS Popular Player: Desmond Bane

Price: $7,400/$8,400
Own%: 63.30%/37.65%

DFS Value Player: Jeremy Sochan

Price: $5,600/$6,300
5x%: 37%/23%

Player to Avoid in DFS: Xavier Tillman

Price: $5,200/$5,400
LevX: -24.76/-52.33

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

Based on current ownership and optimizer builds 3 Grizzlies and 2 Cavs is going to be a popular starting point for DFS lineups tonight. Pretty much everyone on the Grizzlies is going to carry ownership so there’s not a ton of leverage. However, every one of those popular plays does have multiple pivots in their respective price range. As for Cleveland, the ownership is mostly on Garland/Mobley/Rubio which makes Donovan Mitchell an excellent leverage play in GPPs. Additionally, most of the spend up options are all going to be sub-20% so we can take advantage of these low-owned, high ceiling players. Good luck tonight!

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Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Spencer Dinwiddie seems to have really found his role in Brooklyn. He's distributing like crazy, with 10+ assists in 3 straight games. He now gets a matchup with the league's best assist target and worst defense over the last 15 games in the Sacramento Kings. Dinwiddie has scored 50+ Draftkings points in 3 of his last 5 games without shooting all that well. If his shot starts to fall and he continues racking up assists he can crush this price tag. Expect Dinwiddie to be very popular tonight
• Trey Lyles is a 20 Draftkings points per game machine. Lyles has 20+ in 6 straight games, and 7 of the last 8 overall while never being priced about $4,100. He also has 24+ in 5 of his last 8 games. Given that he remains at $4,000 on a slate without a ton of value, and in a good game environment, Lyles should provide about 5x his salary with upside for more, making him a great value play tonight.
• Gary Trent Jr. is coming off an 18.8 Draftkings point game and is now somehow garnering 35% projected ownership, that's how gross this slate is. I've been preaching coming in under the field recently as opposed to completely avoiding the chalk, but Trent might be chalk that I would fully fade. Over his last 4 games he has averaged just 23.25 minutes per game and hasn't posted a single 20 point performance. Toronto is fully healthy here, so chalky Gary Trent makes no sense to me.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Spencer Dinwiddie

Seth Curry

Trey Lyles

Deandre Ayton

Nikola Jokic

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Haliburton (if he plays), Fox, Jrue Holiday

SG: Josh Giddey, Devin Booker, Joe Ingles

SF: Khris Middleton, Kevin Huerter, Jordan Nwora

PF: Giannis, Jalen Williams, Jeff Green

C: Jokic, Sabonis, Brook Lopez

DFS Popular Player: Spencer Dinwiddie

Price: $7,900/$8,700
Own%: 45.98%/33.92%

DFS Value Player: Trey Lyles

Price: $4,000/
5x%: 29%/

Player to Avoid in DFS: Gary Trent Jr.

Price: $4,300/$4,700
LevX: -30.16/-52.01

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

At the time of writing this there is virtually no value available on this slate. The biggest leverage will come from spending up for the stars due to how few people will be doing that. It gets pretty gross value wise when you do that, but you can gain additional leverage by simply avoiding the very apparent bad chalk on this slate. Gary Trent Jr, Dorian Finney Smith, Seth Curry, and Torrey Craig all project for 30% ownership tonight. However, the only reason they do is because you have to play someone. They don't project nearly well enough to warrant the ownership they are receiving. If you're going gross for value, go for gross without the ownership attached to it. Good luck tonight!

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Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• With Luka Doncic ruled out and Kyrie Irving unlikely to play, Jaden Hardy is in line for another huge usage game. Hardy has boasted above a 30% usage rate in back to back games now with Kyrie/Luka sidelined. Hardy has scored 31 and 47.5 Draftkings points in those games and now gets perhaps the best matchup in the league vs San Antonio. Expect Hardy to be massive chalk tonight.
• I'll be honest I'm not entirely sure who Sandro Mamukelashvili is, but the field is going to be playing a whole lot of him tonight for a reason. The Spurs are without both Zach Collins and Charles Bassey tonight so Mamukelashvili is expected to draw the start. At nearly minimum price on both sites, with a projection of about 25 minutes, Mamukelashvili projects to be a great value play on tonight's slate.
• D'Angelo Russell is going to command some massive ownership tonight with both Anthony Davis and Lebron James sidelined. Not only is he stepping into likely massive usage, but he faces the best matchup in the league for opposing guards in the Houston Rockets. However, Russell is a streaky player, and he's not super cheap. At 37+% projected ownership on a slate with several solid options, I would try to come in under the field on Russell tonight and hope that the Lakers offense remains more balanced than the field is assuming.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

D'Angelo Russell

Jaden Hardy

Tyler Herro

Darius Garland

Sandro Mamukelashvili

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: James Harden, Steph Curry, McKinley Wright

SG: Donavon Mitchell, Terrance Mann, Anthony Edwards

SF: Jayson Tatum, Jaden McDaniels, David Roddy

PF: Naz Reid, Jonathon Kuminga, Keegan Murray

C: Joel Embiid, Domantas Sabonis, JaMychal Green

DFS Popular Player: Jaden Hardy

Price: $5,500/$6,400
Own%: 70.00%/68.16%

DFS Value Player: Sandro Mamukelashvili

Price: $3,100/$3,900
5x%: 74%/53%

Player to Avoid in DFS: D'Angelo Russell

Price: $7,700/$8,200
LevX: -15.64/-14.26

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

There is a great opportunity tonight to get positional leverage on your opponents. There is a ton of ownership that is going to condense on Jaden Hardy, D'Angelo Russell, and Darius Garland. All three of these players are PG eligible, meaning the other PGs on the slate are going to be drastically under owned in comparison to these three. James Harden, Steph Curry, and Donavon Mitchell are all projected for single digit ownership tonight, and we know the ceiling's they can put up. I would prioritize taking advantage of this leverage opportunity and build my lineups starting from there. Good luck tonight!

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Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• With Jarrett Allen already ruled out, and then a surprise downgrade for Donavon Mitchell to out, Evan Mobley is in line for a huge role here. In 516 minutes with Jarrett Allen and Donavon Mitchell off the floor, Mobley has received a 4.3% usage bump that amounts to 24.9% total usage, 2nd on the team behind only Darius Garland. Expect Mobley to be extremely popular tonight.
• The Pistons are in full tank mode. If Cory Joseph is ruled out they will have 8 active players… Eugene Omoruyi will start again here with Marvin Bagley sidelined. Omoruyi crushed last game, putting up 34 Draftkings points in his first start of the season just yesterday. His price hasn't budged at all, and he is likely to see 32+ minutes again even if this game does blowout. Omoruyi is a great value play tonight.
• On paper the biggest beneficiary with Donavon Mitchell out for the Cavs tonight is Caris Levert. Levert is in line to start, and last time he played without Mitchell he put up 31.8 Draftkings points vs Detroit, and that was without Jarrett Allen. However, Levert is a very up and down player, and he has layed a dud in the spot plenty of times before. Not a full fade here with a very apparent ceiling, but I would try to come in under the field here on a chalky Levert and hope for a bad shooting night.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Darius Garland

Caris Levert

Deni Avdija

Eugene Omoruyi

Evan Mobley

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Dame, SGA, Devin Booker

SG: Terrence Ross, Josh Giddey, Josh Hart

SF: Michael Porter Jr., Kelly Oubre, Joe Ingles

PF: Giannis, Jeremy Sochan, Jalen Williams

C: Jokic, AD, Poeltl

DFS Popular Player: Evan Mobley

Price: $8,100/$8,200
Own%: 54.78%/70.00%

DFS Value Player: Eugene Omoruyi

Price: $3,800/$5,000
5x%: 59%/31%

Player to Avoid in DFS: Caris Levert

Price: $5,000/$6,000
LevX: -18.58/-30.07

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

There is virtually 0 ownership coming in on the likes of Jokic, Lillard, Anthony Davis, Devin Booker, and Giannis. The field is going to flock to balanced builds in a big way here with mid priced players in good spots due to teammate injuries. This slate screams stars and scrubs to me for GPPs, with solid cheap chalk going under owned and the highest ceiling players on the slate getting virtually unowned. Good luck tonight!

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Powerful tools for every sport

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• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• We have a repeat of the tank bowl tonight between the Pistons and Pacers. Everyone on the Pistons of relevance is out and the same can be said for the Pacers aside from a Q tag on Buddy Hield. In DFS this means a whole lotta value! Let's start with Killian Hayes, who absolutely smashed in this same exact scenario just 2 days ago. Hayes put up 49 Draftkings points in a massive role, finishing with a real life stat line of 17-6-13. Nothing has changed, so expect Hayes to be massive chalk tonight.
• On the other side of the game we have Isaiah Jackson drawing another start for injured Myles Turner. Jackson also smashed just 2 days ago in this same matchup, putting up a 19-11 stat line that amounted to 43.8 Draftkings points. Jackson hasn't been priced up nearly enough and therefore projects to be a great value play tonight.
• Back to the Pistons. Like I said, basically their whole team is out. Isaiah Livers took this opportunity to chuck up 20 shots in a team high 38 minutes last time out. Livers finished with 39.5 Draftkings points at $4,700, which is solid. However, Livers is now $5,300 and that really isn't that cheap all things considered. Livers fantasy value was also uncharacteristically bolstered by 4 steals and 2 blocks last game, and we shouldn't count on that going forward. It's nearly impossible to just completely X out Livers tonight, but I would try to come in under the field.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Andrew Nembhard

Killian Hayes

Chris Duarte

Jayson Tatum

Isaiah Jackson

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Steph Curry, Trae Young, Kyrie (if he plays)

SG: Terrence Ross, Malik Monk, Ochae Agbaji

SF: Lauri, Kevin Huerter, Bogdan

PF: Giannis, Jalen Smith, James Johnson

C: Sabonis, Walker Kessler, Kevon Looney

DFS Popular Player: Killian Hayes

Price: $5,700/$6,400
Own%: 70.00%/63.93%

DFS Value Player: Isaiah Jackson

Price: $4,600/$4,600
5x%: 59%/59%

Player to Avoid in DFS: Isaiah Livers

Price: $5,300/$4,900
LevX: -29.12/-48.50

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

Nothing says March NBA DFS like the top 6 pOWN players all being from the Pistons vs Pacers game… In all seriousness this many people being out for both of those teams has opened up tremendous amounts of value. It is extremely important in situations like this to be very cognizant of how the players within your lineups correlate.

For example, even at their cheap prices it is less likely for both Isaiah Livers and Eugene Omoruyi to put up GPP winning scores as they are likely to eat into each-other's ceilings given their roles on the team. Instead of just blindly jamming all the crazy value, get a leg up on your opponents by being cognizant of how each player accumulates points and create rules/groups accordingly. Good luck tonight!

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Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Value is super tight tonight, meaning some gross value is gonna be chalky. Reggie Jackson has been fine recently, he seems to have carved out a solid 20+ minutes in this Denver rotation. However, Jackson hasn't surpassed 25 Draftkings points since joining Denver, and he likely does not warrant the 50+% ownership that he's going to get tonight. The matchup is great, and he's super cheap so I understand the popularity, but it seems like a little much to me.
• Aaron Gordon is unusually cheap here in the best matchup in the league against the Spurs. Despite some potential blowout concern, Gordon can still pay off in limited minutes. If the game does stay close, he has quite a bit of upside at just $6,400 on Draftkings. With 33.8 and 40 Draftkings points in his last 2 games, Gordon is a nice value on tonight's tough slate.
• Royce O'Neale is remarkably nearing 50% projected ownership on Draftkings despite scoring less than 25 Draftkings points in 12 straight games before his last. O'Neale had a ceiling outcome against Houston last game with 11 rebounds and there seems to be some serious recency bias going on here. O'Neale's role is marginal on this Nets team so despite the cheap price and decent minutes projected I would try to come in under the field here.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Reggie Jackson

Royce O'Neale

Mikal Bridges

Jaden McDaniels

Rudy Gobert

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Dame, James Harden, Trae Young

SG: Donovan Mitchell, Bogdan, Anthony Edwards

SF: Jimmy Butler, Caleb Martin, Troy Brown Jr.

PF: Jeremy Sochan, Kevin Love, Evan Mobley

C: Jokic, Embiid, Anthony Davis

DFS Popular Player: Reggie Jackson

Price: $3,500/$4,300
Own%: 56.55%/41.51%

DFS Value Player: Aaron Gordon

Price: $6,400/$7,200
5x%: 48%/23%

Player to Avoid in DFS: Royce O'Neale

Price: $3,800/$4,500
LevX: -31.67/-34.71

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

This slate is about as gross as it gets. Much of the leverage is going to come more so in avoiding the bad chalk that is going to be consumed by a majority of the field. Balanced builds are likely the way to go tonight in an effort to avoid jamming the Reggie Jackson and Royce O'Neales of the world. This could change if Darius Garland is ruled out, and if the value that opens up is good enough it could present an opportunity to play some low owned stars. However if that doesn't happen, balance is likely to be rewarded here. Good luck tonight!

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Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Desmond Bane is coming off a bad game vs the Lakers but is in a great bounce back spot here against the Warriors without Ja Morant. Bane put up 47.5 Draftkings points in his first game without Morant before a subpar game last time out. Bane has a 28.2% usage rate with Ja Morant off the floor this season and the past 2 games Bane has been playing backup PG so his assist numbers are up quite a bit. He is underpriced for his role without Morant, and in a plus matchup tonight expect Bane to be very popular tonight.
• The Linsanity run for Cam Thomas has a chance to continue tonight with the Nets missing 3 starters. We all know what Thomas can do, posting 3 straight 57+ Draftkings points games will leave a lasting impression. Thomas has been out of the rotation recently but with the Nets down so many bodies he should get plenty of run tonight. At just $4,600 on Draftkings this makes Thomas the best value play on the slate.
• Jalen Green is in line for huge usage here without backcourt mate Kevin Porter Jr against Indiana tonight. The pacers are a great matchup on paper but there are a few reasons you may want to avoid Green tonight. Despite the good matchup, the Rockets are 10 point underdogs on the road tonight, introducing some blowout potential and shortened minutes for Green. However this isn't something we can count on, so let's instead discuss how Green scores fantasy points. Green offers very little outside of scoring actual points and he is one of the streakiest players in the league. Green is going to be very chalky tonight and likely isn't a full fade, but is someone I would happily come in under the field on.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Jalen Green

Desmond Bane

Jrue Holiday

Khris Middleton

Day'Ron Sharpe

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Steph Curry, De'Aaaron Fox, Kris Dunn

SG: Josh Hart, Kevin Huerter, Jordan Poole

SF: Keegan Murray, Buddy Hield, KJ Martin

PF: Julius Randle, Kelly Olynyk, Trey Lyles

C: Sabonis, Walker Kessler, Kevon Looney

DFS Popular Player: Desmond Bane

Price: $8,000/$8,600
Own%: 46.56%/45.04%

DFS Value Player: Cam Thomas

Price: $4,600/4,700
5x%: 65%/52%

Player to Avoid in DFS: Jalen Green

Price: $6,400/$6,800
LevX: -16.95/-17.09

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

This is back to back slates where balanced builds will likely be preferred by the field. My favorite thing to do for leverage in NBA DFS is “flip the build”. Tonight this would mean going more stars and scrubs, avoiding the popular mid range guys like Jrue Holiday, Jalen Green, and Khris Middleton and instead paying up for the likes of De'Aaron Fox, Julius Randle, Domas, or an unowned Steph Curry. Once again the highest ceiling players on the slate are going overlooked, and in a big way tonight. Good luck!

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Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.