Tag: DFS

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• David Montgomery looks slightly overvalued at the FLEX but well undervalued at captain, assuming ownership projections are accurate.
• The most duplicated builds will have a combo of Amon-Ra St.Brown, a QB, and David Montgomery, so look to avoid combos like that without more extreme leverage added.
• Building for a low scoring affair without QBs involved is a unique way to approach the slate, and seems like a solid path to leverage Montgomery ownership

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

The most valuable captain tonight is David Montgomery, who looks a bit undervalued by the indsutry at the position. His projected ownership at the position is around 10%, but his exposure in the contest sims is almost 16%. He offers the most positive leverage at the moment, but there’s not a lot of room for that leverage if he gets more popular up to lock.

On the other side of the table is Jared Goff, who looks to be the most overvalued captain. His exposures in contest winners is just 11% while his projected ownership is around 18%. While he is still one of the most valuable captains, there’s going to be leverage gained by avoiding him in single entry and three max contests.

FLEX ownership distributions

By far the most valuable FLEX option tonight is Amon-Ra St.Brown with an exposure – projected ownership of almost +32%. His exposure of 75% in contest winners is a step above anyone else on the slate, and gives a lot of room even if projected ownership is low on him overall. While he doesn’t make a very good captain because of price, he represents a terrific FLEX play that is likely undervalued even at high ownership.

In terms of the most negative value added, we have three players separated from the rest: AJ Dillon, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs. One obvious note is all three of these players are Packers! In fact, four of the five players offering the worst negative leverage are from Green Bay. This represents a clear path in terms of game flow and roster construction when building with leans and stacks.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• There are no free squares tonight. The most valuable player overall is Amon-Ra St.Brown, but he by no means represents a free square considering the DET touchdown distributions and possible gameflow differences
• Both DET running backs are in play here, and playing them together is an interesting large field tactic
• Both defenses and both kickers are appropriately valued

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

We see a lot of kicker captains here along with a couple Packers DST captains as well. After that, we get a handful of Laporta followed by both QBs. Interestingly enough, we don’t see much Amon-Ra St.Brown, which is mostly a function of price but does represent an interesting spot to be different.

In the FLEX there is a very clear combo to avoid: St.Brown, a QB, and David Montgomery. Both iterations of St.Brown/Love/Montgomery and St.Brown/Goff/Montgomery will be heavily owned, and if you add Josh Reynolds to that you are looking at heavy duplication. Avoiding these combos or introducing extreme leverage to them in the remaining spots is important.

In terms of unique roster paths, going with a no QB build is really interesting. Neither of these teams wants to push the pace which could easily result in a lower scoring game. The pass catchers and RBs can get there in that environment while both QBs fail to score enough in raw points to make winning lineups.

One other quick call out: I think Kalif Raymond is a really strong play tonight in GPPs. Last week he eclipsed Marvin Jones in snap count and routes and is looking well undervalued tonight based on an increasing role.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This is a great showdown slate with good pricing and a lot of interesting directions to go based on two relatively flat offenses. There are going to be a lot of people that build lineups based on median expectations that miss out on a lot of ceiling because of the way these players eat into production of one another. One spot that people will likely mess up is playing Montgomery and Goff together in GPPs, where it’s unlikely both get there based on gamescripts. The biggest edge tonight is likely choosing the correct gameflow and building towards it rather than building the highest median expectation team.

There are two feasible paths to build: A high scoring game, where DET falls behind and is forced to catch up, or a lower scoring grinder where neither team is able to capitalize quickly and trade scores up to a 21-17 win. A high scoring game likely necessitates Jordan Love and Amon-Ra St.Brown, where a low scoring game is built around David Montgomery and no QBs. My current lean is a 4-2 DET build for a low scoring gamescript, but I think a 3-3 with both QBs is great too.

Some players that look overvalued:

• AJ Dillon
• Jared Goff (CPT)
• Christian Watson (FLEX)

Some players that look undervalued:

• David Montgomery (CPT)
• Amon-Ra St.Brown (FLEX)
• Kalif Raymond (Loins play)

Good luck and bink a unique

---

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Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• Najee Harris sucks but he also does not quite suck as bad as the field thinks, so he makes a worthwhile captain
• The defenses and kickers look like they will lead to high dupe counts, so try to avoid using multiple of them in your GPP builds
• This is one of the most wide open showdowns we have had, if you don’t feel comfortable with your lineup you are on the right track

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

I will be very clear: I am unhappy about these results. Najee Harris sucks. I do not want to use him. But he does offer the most leverage at captain based on the difference in exposure and projected ownership at the position. It’s just all very disappointing. On the other side, Jimmy Garoppolo offers the most negative leverage as a CPT on this slate. His projected ownership at the slot is almost 19% while his exposure there is just 11%.

FLEX ownership distributions

The highest leverage offered in the FLEX spot goes to Jakobi Meyers, followed by Josh Jacobs. Both project for modest ownership in this slot and have high exposure rates. Meyers specifically has some great expected fantasy point metrics and Josh Jacobs has one of the best roles of any RB in fantasy, so this isn’t really surprising. Meanwhile, Pat Friermuth and both defensives offer the most negative leverage. Once again, this is disappointing, as it means we should be playing for a relatively high scoring affair between these two wet towel teams.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• There are no free squares tonight, in fact this is one of the more wide open slates we have seen so far this year
• There’s some interesting ways to build using both PIT running backs considering Kenny Pickett throws like an overweight 6^th grader
• Both kickers offer some slight leverage overall, making them more valuable than either DST

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The vast majority of lineups with a high dupe chance are going to be Davante Adams, one of the kickers, or the fucking DST. This may end up being the fishiest showdown slate of all time if a heavily duped lineup ends up winning.  The most dupe-prone combo is going to be a FLEX trio of Adams, Garoppolo, and Pickett with Josh Jacobs a premier piece as well. I think the biggest edge for this showdown is just to play a lineup that wins when these teams actually score points. Most people will be building with the kickers and DST and probably Josh Jacobs, so playing things that neutralize DST and Kickers gives the most leverage.

That said, Maybe the best way to beat the field is by using no RBs at all? Look to these teams to score points through the air and maximize your correlation to the points scored. Josh Jacobs with Jimmy G might be an exception here, but using either of Warren or Najee with Pickett is likely wasted EV.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This is actually a really tough showdown once you get into the ways to beat the field. There are some gross ways, like Najee Harris captain, that let you pass the field with a more common win condition while getting direct leverage over more popular pieces. On the other hand, there are ways that feel less gross, like stacking the passing game, but go against what these teams are most likely to do. Both options are valid in terms of showdown, and there are no great answers in terms of maintaining upside while building apart from the field.

As of now, I see two main paths that I am likely to follow: Najee Harris captain with a Pickett fade, leaning towards a 4-2 PIT stack, or a 3-3 gamestack with a 4-2 LV lean since I think their offense is more condensed. Either way it’s hard to feel great about building either. Very fun!

Some players that look overvalued:

• Defenses and Kickers
• Jimmy G (Cpt)
• Pat Freiermuth

Some players that look undervalued:

• Passing stacks
• Najee Harris (CPT)
• Josh Jacobs

Good luck and bink a unique

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• The biggest point of leverage tonight is Ray-Ray the Bay=Bay over Ronnie “Rookie” Bell in GPPs
• Try to avoid using the combo of CMC, Jones, Deebo, and Purdy
• Get ready to tilt some weird touchdowns between two teams that have a lot of depth and few bellcows

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

The best edge offered at CPT in the contest simulations is George Kittle, who is projected at just 5% captain ownership but has an 11% exposure rate in optimals. This number may close up with the news on Brandon Aiyuk being out, but it’s unlikely Kittle is higher than 10% owned at this slot. The biggest negative leverage goes to Brock Purdy at -6.45% leverage gained here. His optimality rate is still okay at 12.20% but he is being overvalued with a projected ownership at captain of 18.65%. This is a situation where you’ll want to rerun the contest sims closer to lock after final updates to make sure the ownerships here haven’t shifted considerably after the Aiyuk news.

FLEX ownership distributions

Christian McCaffrey offers the most edge at FLEX, with an optimal exposure rate of 81.70% against a projected FLEX ownership of around 56%. The key takeaway with McCaffrey is that he makes for a better FLEX than CPT, but he’s going to be in your lineup either way. The largest negative edge found is on Parris Campbell at -5%, but there are a handful of options in that range. The one that probably matters the most is the 49ers DST, which has a projected ownership of 12.70% and is probably projected too low, which makes them conservatively overvalued and possible the worst play on the slate.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• Free square is Christian McCaffrey. Don’t need to overthink it outside of the largest field GPPs, where you could fade for Elijah Mitchell if you felt inclined.
• Ronnie Bell is already creeping up in ownership, but people are ignoring Ray-Ray McCloud III at the same price point in the same situation. He makes for a fantastic large field GPP pivot.
• There’s not enough ownership on either kicker in the FLEX, which usually means the public is stacking for a higher scoring game.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The lineups most likely to be duped are utilizing a mid-priced captain along with a clear 4-man combo: McCaffrey, Daniel Jones, Deebo Samuel, and Brock Purdy. There’s enough value on the slate that you can fit all the studs together, so the easiest way to reduce duplication is simply avoid the full combo. The most high leverage way of doing this is to avoid Brock Purdy, who is an overvalued play at FLEX based on the contest sims. You could also use a Giants player in the captain, as the vast majority of the captains in high probability dupes are 49ers players.

The two most realistic ways to avoid duplication and have a strong ROI tonight are: Play towards a Giants victory with a 4-2 NYG lean or avoid Brock Purdy and/or Deebo Samuel. An interesting way to play the slate is with George Kittle captain and Christian McCaffrey in the FLEX with strong NYG options ins an offset 2-4.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

I’m interested to see what happens with the Ronnie Bell situation. He filled in last week with no Aiyuk and had 18% of the snaps ran but had no targets and is a late round rookie. Meanwhile McCloud had a targets per route run of around 13% (moderate) in 2022 and could feasibly see as many snaps as Ronnie Bell. There seems to be a considerably strong opportunity to pivot off the Ronnie Bell chalk and get massive leverage in GPPs in a really simple way. That said, both of them could suck, we could get nothing for the pivot, and have Arbys on speed dial.

Regardless, there’s a lot of value to be had on this slate in terms of both roster construction differences as well as value choices. Even with an 85% owned CMC to be had you’ll be able to fill in the blanks with a lot of unique directions. So long as you don’t play the super obvious 4-man combo of CMC, Jones, Deebo, and Purdy you can build a lot of strong lineups a lot of different ways.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Ronnie Bell (probably)
• Brock Purdy (CPT)
• 49ers DST

Some players that look undervalued:

• George Kittle (CPT)
• Ray-Ray McCloud III
• Giants 4-2 builds

Good luck and bink a unique

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• The captain offering the most leverage is DeVante Parker, while the most leverage offered on the slate is Tyreek in the FLEX
• Building with a lean towards the Patriots is a straightforward way to use Tyreek in more unique ways
• Avoiding the combo of Tua, Rhamondre, and Tyreek in the FLEX will help considerably with your dupe management

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

The highest exposures in the contest simulations go to Rhamondre Stevenson and Mac Jones, but the highest leverage belongs to DeVante Parker. His exposure of 10% is considerably higher than his projected captain ownership of under 2%. This makes him a premium captain option on a slate that should have very condensed ownership at the high price points. On the other side of this table is Tyreek Hill, who has the worst leverage offered at captain with a -7% rate of exposures minus projected ownership.

FLEX ownership distributions

Where Tyreek lacks at captain leverage, he makes up for greatly at FLEX leverage. He offers by far the most leverage on the slate at a 30% mark here, as the field is overvaluing his captain value and undervaluing his FLEX usage. Rhamondre Stevenson comes in second in terms of leverage gained with an exposure minus projected ownership of just under 20%. The largest negative leverage offered at FLEX is Kendrick Bourne, making him a worthwhile fade in GPPs.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• There’s not really a free square on this slate, but Tyreek Hill is pretty close. He should be locked into the majority of your lineups at FLEX.
• As we typically see with top heavy showdown slates, lots of cheap players project as underowned, so leaning into the uncertainty to take advantage of the studs works here.

The Patriots defense appears appropriately valued, but the Dolphins defense is overvalued. It sets up well for a Patriots 4-2 lean.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The lineups with some of the highest projected ownership follow the typical pattern of a top heavy showdown: cheap captains and jamming in the studs. We see a handful of kicker captains with Jason Sanders, along with some Mac Jones and DeVante Parker. In the FLEX, we see three main pieces: Tua, Tyreek, and Rhamondre Stevenson. This offers multiple interesting leverage points in GPPs, as avoiding that 3-man combo is going to help your dupe count immensely. Going with Jaylen Waddle instead of Tyreek or Tua, for instance, is a way to manage duplications while maintaining solid upside.

Especially considering the opportunity cost of using Tua and Tyreek together, it makes a lot of sense to fade Tua for Waddle and hope for a Patriots gamescript that controls the ball and limits upside.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This game has kind of an odd vibe. The Dolphins are a high octane offense, but they have a very clear gameplan, which Bellichick has made a career of shutting down. On the other side, the Patriots are a team without a true identity early in the season, and the Dolphins defense looked good in week one against a better Chargers offense. My guess is that people just put all their eggs in the Tua/Tyreek basket and largely ignore Waddle and Mostert as viable upside options.

A build focused on the Dolphins win through the run game and a fade of Tua is one of my favorite ways to attack. The other more obvious route is a shootout that leans 4-2 towards the Patriots with Devante Parker at captain.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Kendrick Bourne
• Tyreek Hill (captain)
• Dolphins DST

Some players that look undervalued:

• DeVante Parker (CPT)
• Jaylen Waddle
• Patriots stacks

Good luck and bink a unique

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles