Tag: MLB

Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

• Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Chandler Morris (QB) with Jonathon Brooks (RB) and Bru McCoy (WR). Furthermore, Emeka Egbuka (WR) and Braelon Allen (RB) will also be heavily owned.
• UT will be the de-facto chalk stack with Milton III (QB) and Bru McCoy (WR) both projected to be top-3 highest owned at their respective positions. However, if building a stack that incorporates chalk, pairing Penix Jr. with his pass catchers or RB for UW seems like the stronger option in GPPs. Additionally, OSU and ORE are two expensive, low-owned stacks with slate-breaking upside. 
• Pivoting off of the chalk super-flex QB is a good way to get different in DFS. Currently, Joe Milton III and Michael Penix Jr. will be the popular pairings with Chandler Morris.  Therefore, paying up at QB or taking a slight discount on the $7k range are both viable ways to get different in the Superflex. 

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

 

CFB Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

QB: Chandler Morris
RB: Jonathon Brooks
WR1: Bru McCoy
WR2: Emeka Egbuka
Flex: Braelon Allen

CFB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

QB: Dillon Gabriel
RB: Donovan Edwards
WR1: Barion Brown
WR2: Jalen McMillan
Flex: TreVeyon Henderson

DFS Stack Considerations

Ohio State University (OSU)
University of Washington (UW)
Oregon (ORE)

CFB DFS Final Thoughts

OSU and UW both represent an opportunity to eat some of the better chalk pieces, while also building a completely different roster construction. However, both stacks are expensive so savings will need to come from somewhere. Thankfully, Oklahoma is a massive favorite who is implied to score 47.5 points and feature a $3.7k priced RB as the co-starter. Tawee Walker is a great GPP play to fit in full OSU, UW, or ORE stacks. Lastly, slates this size offer a huge pool of receivers to choose from so outside of clear misprices you shouldn't feel obligated to eat WR chalk.

GL and let's bake some bread!

---

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Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

• Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Max Scherzer with Toronto bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Red Sox, Marlins, and Rockies. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on James Paxton and JP Sears.
• Joe Ryan rates as the top pitcher in the models and will have very little ownership. Zach Wheeler, Hyu Jin Ryu, and Eury Perez round out the best of the rest. There are several pivots in this group, including Ryu (JP Sears) and Wheeler (Max Scherzer). Additionally, for the roughly the same amount of salary as Max/Paxton you can go with Ryan/Perez.
• The Astros rate as the top stack in the models currently. The Guardians, Yankees, Pirates, Braves, and Phillies rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

True AVG Heroes and Zeros

Heroes: Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Joe Ryan
Justin Verlander can be taken with a grain of salt. Despite having the top True AVG he has a poor median projection and is a poor value tonight. Kodai Senga is in pretty much the same situation as Verlander. Both pitchers can be considered in MME builds, but avoided in SE/3-max. Joe Ryan boasts a strong True AVG and the top median projection in DFS making him a strong play in all formats.

Zeros: Chris Flexen, Dakota Hudson, Jordan Lyles
Chris Flexen is awful and pitching in Coors but everyone knows it and the Blue Jays will be incredibly high-owned. Likewise, the Red Sox look like they will be popular tonight versus Jordan Lyles. This leaves the Pirates against Dakota Hudson looking like the preferred GPP stack at low-ownership.

If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!

MLB Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

SP: James Paxton
1B: Brandon Belt
2B: Jose Altuve
3B: Alex Bregman
SS: Joey Wendle
OF: Daulton Varsho

MLB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

SP: Joe Ryan
1B: DJ LeMahieu
2B: Ji Hwan Bae
3B: Jose Ramirez
SS: Anthony Volpe
OF: Giancarlo Stanton

DFS Stack Considerations

Astros
Guardians
Yankees

MLB DFS Final Thoughts

Starting with Ryan and the Blue Jays makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (CLE, NYY, PIT). In large-field, the models support fading Max Scherzer and Red Sox bats. In addition to the top stacks, the Pirates, Braves, Phillies, Twins,  and Blue Jays all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Max Scherzer paired with one of Paxton/Sears. However, the models support pivoting off of Max/Sears for Wheeler/Ryu respectively.

GL and let's bake some bread!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

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Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

• Slate ownership is focused on the combo of John Rhys Plumlee (QB) with RJ Harvey (RB) and Jahmal Banks (WR). Furthermore, Isaiah Wooden (WR) and Marcus Carroll (RB) will also be heavily owned.
• UCF looks to be the de-facto chalk stack with the highest projected owned QB and RB, as well as a popular WR1. However, both GAST and URI look like cheap high-upside stacks and a game stack is certainly viable. Additionally, ASU will also be lower-owned and would be the preferred option in late slate contests.
• Pivoting off of the chalk super-flex QB is a good way to get different in DFS. Currently, Braylen Braxton is projected to be the most popular, but a case can be made for several other options. Additionally, the entire midrange of WR rates out about the same so this also looks like a good spot to pivot off of the popular options.  

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

 

CFB Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

QB: John Rhys Plumlee
RB: RJ Harvey
WR1: Jahmal Banks
WR2: Isaiah Wooden
Flex: Marcus Carroll

CFB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

QB: Jaden Rashada
RB: Cody Schrader
WR1: Taylor Morin
WR2: Kevin Concepcion
Flex: Isaiah Jacobs

DFS Stack Considerations

Georgia State (GAST)
University of Rhode Island (URI)
Arizona State University (ASU)

CFB DFS Final Thoughts

While the UCF offense should be more concentrated than USC, we still just see a single WR that stands out. Therefore, a full UCF stack isn't necessary and given the huge price difference between the RB1 and  WR1, you can consider stacking Plumlee with Harvey to capture all of the TD equity. The midrange at RB has a lot of similarly projected options and is a good place to rotate players in MME builds. Lastly, there are a handful of QBs in the $8k-9k range who will be paired with Plumlee in a lot of lineups, but you can certainly play 2 of those QBs together without sacrificing a lot of median projection.

GL and let's bake some bread!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

• Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Gerrit Cole with Braves bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Yankees and Pirates. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Jesus Luzardo, Denyi Reyes, Andre Jackson, and Zach Eflin.
• Zach Eflin rates as the top pitcher in the models and is the only one with a median projection above 20 DK points. Gerrit Cole and Jesus Luzardo round out the best of the rest, however, both of them are pretty poor point-per-dollar plays.
• The Dodgers rate as the top stack and come with a considerable ownership discount off of the Braves. The Braves, Yankees, Mets, Rangers, and Diamondbacks rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

True AVG Heroes and Zeros

Heroes: Ryan Pepiot, Zach Eflin, Joey Wentz
Pepiot just got recalled from Triple-A and there is some question as to what his workload will be tonight. Similar concerns can be said about Wentz who is listed as the probable long reliever. Eflin looks like the safest Hero tonight with strong True AVG and the highest median projection. 

Zeros: Dane Dunning, Brandon Pfaadt, Kyle Freeland
Dane Dunning is dung and the Mets are a strong option in GPPs at low ownership. Pfaadt is in a matchup with the red-hot Dodgers who rate as the top stack in DFS tonight. Lastly, Freeland is awful and in Coors, but that's just leading to massive ownership on Braves hitters.

If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!

MLB Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

SP: Andre Jackson (Eflin on FD)
1B: DJ LeMahieu
2B: Gleyber Torres
3B: Austin Riley
SS: Alika Williams
OF: Connor Joe

MLB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

SP: Zach Eflin
1B: Christian Walker
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Max Muncy
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF: Mookie Betts

DFS Stack Considerations

Dodgers
Braves
Yankees

MLB DFS Final Thoughts

Starting with Eflin and the Yankees makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (LAD, NYM, TEX). In large-field, the models support fading Gerrit Cole and Jesus Luzardo as well as Pirates bats. In addition to the top stacks, the Mets, Rangers, and Diamondbacks all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Gerrit Cole paired with Eflin/Luzardo on the high-end, or Andre Jackson on the low-end. 

GL and let's bake some bread!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

• Slate ownership is focused on the combo of George Kirby with Braves bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Mariners, Royals, and Rockies. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Alex Cobb, Cole Ragans, and Charlie Morton.
• Jose Berrios rates as the top pitcher in the models and will be about half the ownership as similarly priced Charlie Morton. Cole Ragans, George Kirby, and Andrew Heaney round out the best of the rest. The general theme in DFS tonight is to save money at pitcher and pay up for premium bats.
• The Blue Jays rate as the top stack and project to have very little ownership. The Red Sox, Astros, Braves, Mariners, and Twins rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

True AVG Heroes and Zeros

Heroes: Cole Ragans, Charlie Morton, George Kirby
Cole Ragans seems like a smash play at SP2 considering his high True AVG, median projection, and cheap price. Morton and Kirby aren't necessarily great values tonight at their prices, but they do still rate well and are firmly in play. However, taking their ownership into account, fading either Morton or Kirby is viable in GPPs.

Zeros: Jesse Scholtens, Corbin Burnes, MacKenzie Gore
Scholtens is a dumpster fire on the mound and the Orioles can be played with confidence tonight. Corbin Burnes has name value but has been vulnerable this season and the Cubs will have no ownership. Lastly, Gore and his poor True AVG is boosting TOR to the top of the stack projections.

If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!

MLB Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

SP: Cole Ragans
1B: Ryan Mountcastle
2B: Jose Caballero
3B: Austin Riley
SS: Dylan Moore
OF: Ronald Acuna

MLB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

SP: Jose Berrios
1B: Triston Casas
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Alex Bregman
SS: Orlando Arcia
OF: Davis Schneider

DFS Stack Considerations

Blue Jays
Red Sox
Astros

MLB DFS Final Thoughts

Starting with Ragans and the Braves makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (TOR, BOS, MIN). In large-field, the models support fading Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton as well as Royals bats. In addition to the top stacks, the Braves, Mariners, Twins, Diamondbacks, and Guardians all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is George Kirby paired with Morton on the high-end, or one of Cobb/Ragans on the low-end. 

GL and let's bake some bread!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

• Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Grayson Rodriguez with Braves bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Padres and Mariners. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Kevin Gausman, Bryan Woo, and Kyle Harrison.
• Kevin Gausman rates as the top pitcher in the models, but will be a popular. Similarly, Kyle Harrison and Grayson Rodriguez rate well but will be highly owned. Chris Sale rounds out the best of the rest and will be very low-owned. Chris Sale makes an intriguing GPP pivot off of Gausman, but in general, the chalk pitching options all look good.
• The Red Sox rate as the top stack and project to have very little ownership. The Twins, Cubs, Guardians, Blue Jays, and Orioles rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

True AVG Heroes and Zeros

Heroes: Kevin Gausman, Jameson Taillon, Chris Sale
Kevin Gausman has the highest True AVG and highest median projection tonight likely warranting the ownership. However, Chris Sale can be considered in place of Gausman to save some salary for bats. Despite the strong True AVG, Taillon projects poorly. That said, Taillon can still be considered in large-field GPPs as a pivot to similar punt option Kyle Harrison. 

Zeros: Wade Miley, Bryce Elder, Kyle Muller
Wade Miley rates like garbage and yet nobody is playing the Cubs. The Cubs just helped take down the Fanduel live final and could be in a similar high-upside spot tonight. Elder continues to get a boost due to the Braves overall being good, but he is not. Taking the other side of Coors and playing Rockies is certainly in play. Lastly, Muller is bad but people have been attacking Oakland pitching most of the season and tonight is no different as the Mariners project to be popular in DFS.

If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!

MLB Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

SP: Grayson Rodriguez
1B: Rowdy Tellez
2B: Jose Caballero
3B: Austin Riley
SS: Gabriel Arias
OF: Juan Soto

MLB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

SP: Chris Sale
1B: Triston Casas
2B: Brice Turang
3B: Nick Madrigal
SS: Dylan Moore
OF: Nick Senzel

DFS Stack Considerations

Red Sox
Twins
Cubs

MLB DFS Final Thoughts

Starting with Rodriguez and the Red Sox makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (MIN, CHC, CLE). In large-field, the models support fading Bryan Woo as well as lowering exposure to Braves. In addition to the top stacks, the Guardians, Blue Jays, Orioles, Braves, and Mariners all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Grayson Rodriguez paired with Gausman on the high-end, or one of Harrison/Woo on the low-end. However, Sale and Taillon can be considered as pivots to Gausman and Harrison respectively. 

GL and let's bake some bread!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

• Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Caleb Williams (QB) with Tylan Hines (RB) and Will Sheppard (WR), who are both mispriced. Additionally, Smoke Harris (WR) and Charvis Thorton (RB) will also be heavily owned.
• While Caleb Williams will likely be the highest-owned player in DFS, USC doesn't project to be the top stack. Factoring in price and ownership, LA Tech looks like the top stack with Bachmeier plus Smoke Harris and Cyrus Allen. However, be mindful of playing this stack with Williams as it will likely be heavily duped. 
• Kurtis Rourke looks like a natural pivot off of the heavier-owned Bachmeier. However, his rushing upside is limited coming back from an ACL injury so you'll likely want to pair him with a WR. Thankfully, Wiglusz is not only Rourke's clear #1 option, but will also be a pivot off of Singer and Smoke Harris. Lastly, you can consider MarShawn Lloyd a pivot (albeit still popular) off of his USC partner Austin Jones. 

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

 

CFB Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

QB: Caleb Williams
RB: Tylan Hines
WR1: Will Sheppard
WR2: Cyrus Allen
Flex: Charvis Thornton

CFB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

QB: Kurtis Rourke
RB: MarShawn Lloyd
WR1: Sam Wiglusz
WR2: Charles Ross
Flex: Sedrick Alexander

DFS Stack Considerations

Louisiana Tech
San Jose State
Florida International

CFB DFS Final Thoughts

USC has a massive implied team total, however, they have a crowded WR room and will rotate all of them in. It would not be surprising for Caleb Williams to throw for 400 yards and multiple TDs but without a single WR going to 100 yards or multiple TDs. Due to this, there is some merit to fading a full USC stack. Additionally, the other side of this game is going under-owned despite the strong likelihood that SJSU is throwing all game. Lastly, we have a true late-night hammer with FIU versus LT these two teams met last season and produced some DFS goodness so even a full game-stack can be considered in GPPs.

GL and let's bake some bread!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

• Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Spencer Strider with Dodgers bats and a punt SP2. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Orioles, White Sox, and Diamondbacks. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Brandon Pfaadt and Cole Irvin.
• Cole Irvin rates as the top pitcher in the models, but will be a popular value play. Strider, Pfaadt, and Dylan Cease rate as the best of the rest. Given that the chalk pitching also rates well, it will be important to identify low-owned high upside stacks tonight.
• The Mets rate as the top stack and currently project to have very little ownership. The Orioles, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Phillies, and Mariners rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

True AVG Heroes and Zeros

Heroes: Spencer Strider, Chris Bassitt, Dylan Cease
You shouldn't need convincing at this point that Strider is always in play for DFS. However, he come at a very high price, high ownership, and a middling projection. Dylan Cease look like a strong option to mix into your player pool tonight. Cease offers both a price and ownership discount off of Strider without sacrificing much median projection. Despite having a top 3 True AVG, Bassitt has a poor median projection and can probably be ignored outside of large field multi-entry GPPs. 

Zeros: Brandon Woodruff, Bryce Miller, Kyle Hendricks
Surprisingly, the Royals don't rate as well as you'd expect considering the matchup with Bryce Miller and his poor True AVG. However, the Padres and Pirates look like solid low-owned GPP stacks versus Woodruff and Hendricks respectively. 

If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!

MLB Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

SP: Cole Irvin
1B: Ryan Mountcastle
2B: Tommy Edman
3B: Jordan Westburg
SS: Tim Anderson
OF: Tyler O'Neil

MLB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

SP: Dylan Cease
1B: Pete Alonso
2B: Jeff McNeil
3B: Jace Peterson
SS: Francisco Lindor
OF: Juan Soto

DFS Stack Considerations

Mets
Orioles
Diamondbacks

MLB DFS Final Thoughts

Starting with Irvin and the Orioles makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (NYM, BOS, PHI). In large-field, the models support lowering exposure to Spencer Strider as well as Dodgers/White Sox. In addition to the top stacks, the Red Sox, Phillies, Mariners, Cardinals, and Pirates all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Spencer Strider paired with one of Pfaadt/Irvin. However, it's worthwhile to take some saving by dropping down from Strider and paying up for different stacks.

GL and let's bake some bread!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

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Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
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• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

• Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Merrill Kelly with White Sox bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Cubs, A's, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Pablo Lopez, Justin Steele, Jose Berrios, and Andrew Heaney.
• Justin Steele rates as the top pitcher. While Steele will be popular, his ownership shouldn't be prohibitive in GPPs. Jose Berrios, Andrew Heaney, Pablo Lopez, and Merrill Kelly rate as the best of the rest. 
• The Diamondbacks rate as the top stack in the models by a country mile. The options on a 5-game slate are rough, but the Reds, A's, and White Sox rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

True AVG Heroes and Zeros

Heroes: Andrew Heaney, Jose Berrios, Merrill Kelly
Heaney sits atop True AVG tonight and has a decent median projection at low ownership. However, he's unlikely to see extended action and it wouldn't be surprising to see him capped around 85 pitches. Berrios and Kelly are the next two heroes but also represent two of the highest-owned pitchers on the slate. That said, it might be worth just eating the chalk. 

Zeros: Andre Jackson, Brandon Williamson, Kyle Gibson
Surprisingly, the Cubs don't rate as well as you'd expect considering the matchup with Jackson. However, they are a solid high-upside option for DFS tonight. The Diamondbacks look great versus Williamson, as do the Blue Jays versus Gibson. 

If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!

MLB Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

SP: Justin Steele
1B: Andrew Vaughn
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Gunnar Henderson
SS: Tim Anderson
OF: Andrew Benintendi

MLB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

SP: Andrew Heaney
1B: Christian Walker
2B: Ji Hwan Bae
3B: Spencer Steer
SS: Nick Ahmed
OF: Corbin Carroll

DFS Stack Considerations

Diamondbacks
White Sox
Blue Jays

MLB DFS Final Thoughts

Starting with Steele and the White Sox makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (ARI, TOR, CIN). In large-field, the models support fading Pablo Lopez as well as Cubs/A's. In addition to the top stacks, the Reds, Cubs, Rangers, and A's are all viable. However, all of them grade out as average at best. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Merrill Kelly paired with Pablo Lopez. This pairing will be used with cheap White Sox stacks so avoid that combination in GPPs. 

GL and let's bake some bread!

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Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

• Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Reid Detmers with Dodgers bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Mets. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Charlie Morton, Luis Severino, and Kevin Gausman.
• Clayton Kershaw rates as the top pitcher, however, he will have ownership and has an awful True AVG. It's worth noting that not a single pitcher projects for over 15 fantasy points on DK, so it makes a ton of sense to just focus on value and ownership to guide your decisions tonight. Kevin Gausman and Luis Severino rate as the best of the rest. 
• The Yankees rate as the top stack in the models by a decent margin but will carry some ownership. The Braves, Astros, Red Sox, and Mets rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

True AVG Heroes and Zeros

Heroes: Dean Kremer, Xzavion Curry, Luis Severino
This list of heroes leaves a lot to be desired. Severino will be popular but that “might” actually be warranted. Meanwhile, Kremer and Curry are strong leverage options for large-field GPPs. Pitching is a bit of a mess tonight for DFS purposes so take everything with a grain of salt.

Zeros: Clayton Kershaw, MacKenzie Gore, Jose Urquidy
Kershaw again finds himself at the bottom of True AVG. However, this is still a first-ballot HOFer so even with that in mind it's unlikely he gets truly blown up but he also is unlikely to kill you if you fade him. Yankees versus Gore seems like the clear play, but the Yankees have also been pretty awful this season. Lastly, the Red Sox ownership might also be warranted versus Urquidy as the Astro's pitching continues to get exposed as the frauds they are. 

If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!

MLB Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

SP: Luis Severino
1B: Triston Casas
2B: Jeff McNeil
3B: Rafael Devers
SS: Luis Rengifo
OF: Aaron Judge

MLB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

SP: Dean Kremer
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Jose Altuve
3B: Jose Ramirez
SS: Orlando Arcia
OF: Chas McCormick

DFS Stack Considerations

Yankees
Braves
Astros

MLB DFS Final Thoughts

Starting with Severino and the Yankees makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (HOU, ATL, BAL). In large-field, the models support fading chalk pitching (Kershaw/Gausman/Severino/Morton) when you consider their projection with ownership. You can also consider fading the Dodgers and Blue Jays as well. In addition to the top stacks, the Red Sox, Mets, and Orioles all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Detmers paired with Gausman/Kershaw/Morton on the high end, or with Severino in punt builds. 

GL and let's bake some bread!

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Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.