Tag: NBA

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Sando Mamukelasvili is averaging over a fantasy point per minute the past month and has been a bright spot for the tanking Spurs. He’s projected to play around 28 minutes tonight, which would make him a solid value at his price point on both DFS sites. However, even considering all that it’s hard to justify him having top 5 ownership on a 13 game slate.
• Bruce Brown could find himself as a must-play tonight if Jokic gets ruled out. Additionally, MPJ is also questionable and Jamal Murray is unlikely to play. Bruce Brown is a solid value regardless, but if all 3 of those guys were to miss Brown would be an elite point-per-$ option. 
• Trendon Watford continues the recent trend of “mid-range priced Blazers to avoid in GPPs”. While the Blazers remain shorthanded, they are also just a bad basketball team. They have struggled to score even 100 points recently while getting blown out multiple times. Watford’s median projection is fine, however, in his price range you can find several comparable players with lower ownership.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Darius Garland

Spencer Dinwiddie

Bruce Brown

Sandro Mamukelashvili

Trendon Watford

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Markelle Fultz, Mike Conley, Jalen Brunson

SG: Shaedon Sharpe, Caris LeVert, Dejounte Murray

SF: Zach LaVine, RJ Barrett, Buddy Hield

PF: DeMar DeRozan, Jalen Williams, Paolo Banchero

C: Clint Capela, Walker Kessler, Nikola Vucevic

Popular DFS Player: Sandro Mamukelashvili

Price: $5,000/$5,300
Own%: 41.83%/44.30%

Value DFS Player: Bruce Brown

Price: $4,700/$5,800
5x%: 41%/17%

Player to Avoid in GPPs: Trendon Watford

Price: $5,900/$6100
LevX: -41.67/-54.30

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

Tonight seems to be very wide open outside of the chalk core of players. Additionally, the Warriors as a team are the next highest owned group of guys, however, even they aren’t egregious. Other teams that are getting overlooked in DFS are the Hawks, Pistons, Knicks, and Bulls. It’s also worth noting that outside of Bruce Brown, all of the other high owned players have a multitude of pivots. Don’t be afraid to get different tonight. Good luck!

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Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
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• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Ja Morant is going to be incredibly popular regardless of the price. It’s not often we see guys in the $9k range with this type of ownership, but the Grizzlies are projected to be without Tyus, Bane, Jackson Jr., and Adams/Clarke remain out. Morant should have absurd usage tonight versus the Clippers and play as many minutes as he can handle after sitting out the last game. Legitimate 60 fantasy point upside here.
• Drew Eubanks should continue to see decent minutes for the shorthanded Blazers squad. While the matchup isn’t great versus the Kings, the Blazers just don’t have a lot of options. Thankfully, Eubanks has been a little over a fantasy-point-per minute recently and is projected to play around 30 minutes. At his price point he still grades out as a strong value at the C position.
• Nassir Little also stands to benefit from the same shortened rotation as Eubanks, however, he is a significantly worse FPPM player. Additionally, when looking at rotations and minutes of the previous games, Little is not blowout proof. He’s lost 4th quarter minutes in 2 of the past 3 games including sitting half of the 3Q and the entire 4Q of the last game. When you add in his ownership and price increase this is an easy decision in GPPs.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Ja Morant

Keon Johnson

Isaiah Joe

Nassir Little

Drew Eubanks

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Kris Dunn, Chris Paul, D’Angelo Russell

SG: Ochai Agbaji, Tyler Herro, Devin Booker

SF: Talen Horton-Tucker, Zach LaVine, Jimmy Butler

PF: DeMar DeRozan, Kenneth Lofton Jr.,Simone Fontecchio

C: Deandre Ayton, Walker Kessler, Nikola Vucevic

Popular DFS Player: Ja Morant

Price: $9,000/$9,900
Own%: 56.70%/53.84%

Value DFS Player: Drew Eubanks

Price: $4,700/$5,600
5x%: 38%/16%

Player to Avoid in GPPs: Nassir Little

Price: $5,100/$4,700
LevX: -30.32/-51.23

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

DFS lineups tonight are going to be littered with Spurs, Grizzlies, and Blazers. While all of these teams have shortened rotations, the Spurs and Blazers are also just awful and can have volatile rotations. The Grizzlies chalk would seem to be the “safest”, but after Morant it’s a steep drop off. Overlooked teams with players popping in the models are the Jazz, Bulls, Heat, Suns, and Lakers. Good luck!

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Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Jalen Williams is projected to be pretty high owned tonight, but there’s no outlier reason why. However, that’s not to say he’s not a strong play. His median projection and ceiling relative to his price is what stands out. He’s simply to cheap for his production. With a median projection around 40 fantasy points and a 50 point ceiling it makes sense that at his price he’ll be popular.
• Tyus Jones is lined up to be one of the top DFS values of the night with Morant doubtful. Jones has always been a solid fantasy point per minute producer and is projected to play over 30 minutes tonight. At a mid-$5k price tag on both sites Tyus Jones is a strong value piece to have in your core plays tonight.
• Kelly Oubre chalk night is rarely a fun time. His ownership is high, his projection is mid, and there are multiple pivots in his price range. Additionally, the Hornets have absolutely zero incentive to win games a this point which makes it tough to justify paying up to the midrange for any of their players.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Tyus Jones

Darius Garland

Desmond Bane

Jalen Williams

Nick Richards

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Markelle Fultz, Trae Young, Fred VanVleet

SG: Dejounte Murray, Tyler Herro, Jordan Poole

SF: Brandon Ingram, Svi Mykhailiuk, Deni Avdija

PF: Paolo Banchero, Evan Mobley, Kristaps Porzingis

C: Jonas Valanciunas, Kevon Looney, Wendell Carter Jr.

Popular DFS Player: Jalen Williams

Price: $6,700/$7,000
Own%: 46.15%/70%

Value DFS Player: Tyus Jones

Price: $5,300/$5,600
5x%: 67%/64%

Player to Avoid in GPPs: Kelly Oubre Jr.

Price: $6,800/$7,700
LevX: -20.74/-5.18

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

Tonight features quite a bit of one-sided matchup chalk. While player from Memphis and Cleveland will be popular, no one is really playing the other side of those matchups in Atlanta and Orlando respectively. In contrast, both sides of the Charlotte/Oklahoma City game will be popular. However, both of those teams and players are more volatile than their ownership may suggest. Other teams that have multiple players popping in the models at somewhat lower ownership are the Raptors, Warriors, Pelicans, and Heat. Good luck!

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Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Nassir Little is going to have absurdly high ownership tonight, but it may actually be warranted. He’s cheap on both DFS sites at $3.8k on Draftkings, and $4.3k on Fanduel. The Blazers are essentially shutting things down for the season which is opening up opportunities for the bench guys. Little is projected to play over 30 minutes tonight and is averaging around a fantasy point per minute with Lillard/Nurkic/Grant/Simons all off the floor. While there are a couple of pivots in his price range (Jevon Carter and Drew Eubanks), they will also be heavily owned.
• Jevon Carter rates as the highest point-per-$ player on the entire slate. He’s cheap on both sites, should play 25-30 minutes, and has a 22% usage rate. With both Giannis and Jrue out and a good matchup versus the tanking Pistons don’t overthink this one.
• Grayson Allen will be lower owned than some of his teammates, but relative to his median projection/ceiling he is still going to be overowned tonight. He will likely be the popular “fake sharp” pivot by people looking to take advantage of the Bucks situation at slightly lower ownership. While that is understandable, Carter/Middleton/Portis all just rate out better and have little to no pivots. Grayson on the other hand has 8-9 comparable players in his price range.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Jevon Carter

Kris Middleton

Nassir Little

Bobby Portis

Drew Eubanks

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Jamal Murray, Mike Conley, TJ McConnell

SG: Malik Monk, Joe Ingles, Devin Booker

SF: Trey Murphy III, RJ Barrett, Zach LaVine

PF: DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Anderson, Julius Randle

C: Jonas Valanciunas, Mitchell Robinson, Nikola Vucevic

Popular DFS Player: Nassir Little

Price: $3,800/$4,300
Own%: 70%/70%

Value DFS Player: Jevon Carter

Price: $3,400/$4,800
5x%: 80%/55%

Player to Avoid in GPPs: Grayson Allen

Price: $4,400/$5,100
LevX: -5.78/-4.89

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

The vast majority of DFS lineups tonight are going to feature a core of 3 Bucks and 2 Blazers. Most of that ownership will be taken up by Carter/Middleton/Portis for the Bucks and Sharpe/Little/Eubanks for the Blazers. Leverage can be gained by either targeting those teams but different players, or fading altogether. However, many of them rate extremely well, so be cautious of how much value chalk you fade. Teams that have multiple low-owned players popping in the models include the Bulls, Pacers, Knicks, and Wolves. Good luck!

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Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Saturday injury edition of the Triple Threat. First up is Joel Embiid on the back end of a back to back here listed questionable with a calf issue. If Embiid is out, Harden (+5.8%), Melton (+4.5%), Harris (+4.3%), and Maxey (+4.2%) get the biggest usage bumps. Now Harden is also questionable, so that is a variable here, but Maxey, Melton, and Harris will all get huge bumps in fantasy viability if Embiid is out.
• Coincidentally enough Q tag #2 is James Harden, who sounds closer to doubtful based on some of Doc River's comments. With Harden off the floor this season, Maxey (+5.4%), Harris (+4.2%), Melton (+2.8), and Embiid (+1.3%) receive that largest bumps in usage. As long as one of Embiid or Harden are out, Maxey, Harris, and Melton will all pick up a huge boost in projection and depending on the timing of the news a huge boost in ownership as well.
• Lastly we have De'Aaron Fox, who appears to be the most questionable out of the bunch. Fox left yesterday's game in the third quarter with hamstring pain and did not return. While a hamstring injury makes me extremely skeptical about his potential availability tonight, it looked like he wanted to come back in the game but was held out, potentially for back to back reasons in an effort to play tonight. If Fox is ruled out, Monk (+4.2%), Barnes (+3.4%), and Huerter (+1.7% usage) would become far better plays and potentially under-owned given the fact that this game is a 10 pm game.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

TBD

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: TBD

SG: TBD

SF: TBD

PF: TBD

C: TBD

Q tag #1: Joel Embiid

Price: $/$
Own%: %/%

Q tag #2: James Harden

Price: $/$
5x%: %/%

Q tag #3: De'Aaron Fox

Price: $/$
LevX: /

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

This entire slate hinges on 3 key pieces of injury news that are all apart of 10 pm est games. If you're going to play this slate you need to be around for news. Aside from that, my best advice is to try and not lock yourself into many pieces from the 8 pm and possibly 9 pm game. This is a short slate starved for value, so this isn't the easiest thing in the world to do. At least be cognizant of the positions in which big value can open up at and leave yourself flexibility in those positions to jam in value if it opens up.

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Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Kristaps Porzingis is going to be incredibly popular despite the price tag. With no Beal or Kuzma on the Porzingis has an incredible 1.5 FPPM rate. Additionally, the Wizards get a great matchup against the tanking Spurs. Porzingis is priced at $9k on Draftkings and $8.9k on FD but has legitimate 50+ point upside tonight. His median projection will make him look like a point-per-$ god which is what is leading to the high ownership.
• Drew Eubanks rates out as one of the strongest DFS values on either site tonight due to the combination of cheap price, solid minutes, and decent projection. Furthermore, Nurkic is doubtful, Lillard was a late downgrade to questionable, and Grant/Simons are already ruled out. We could see an extremely short rotation for Portland with massive usage to go around.
• Dennis Smith Jr. is currently projected to be the highest owned player on the slate tonight. Granted, Ball is done, Rozier is doubtful, and Oubre is questionable so the opportunity is there. However, it’s tough to roster a player projected to be owned by over half the field on a 10 game slate with multiple pivots available. No thanks.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Dennis Smith Jr.

Monte Morris

Deni Avdija

Kristaps Porzingis

Drew Eubanks

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Tyrese Haliburton, Jrue Holiday, De’Aaron Fox

SG: Austin Reaves, Malik Monk, Shaedon Sharpe

SF: Cam Reddish, Tobias Harris, Ochai Agbaji

PF: KJ Martin, Jalen Williams, Pascal Siakam

C: Nikola Vucevic, Jakob Poeltl, Walker Kessler

DFS Popular Player: Kristaps Porzingis

Price: $9,000/$8,900
Own%: 40.03%/63.73%

DFS Value Player: Drew Eubanks

Price: $3,400/$4.800
5x%: 71%/28%

Player to Avoid in DFS: Dennis Smith Jr.

Price: $5,200/$5,800
LevX: -46.53/-48.67

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

Any time 3 Wizards players show up in optimal builds you need to question why we’re still playing NBA DFS this time of year. Alas, this is where we are. Monte Morris, Deni Avdija, and Porzingis are all going to be very popular so an easy way to get different is to simply limit exposure to that group of players. Likewise, just fading Dennis Smith Jr. also provides tremendous leverage if his projected ownership holds. Once you’ve made decisions on the Wizards and DSJ you can pretty much build how you want. Warrior, Raptors, Jazz, Kings, and Pacers are all teams that have multiple guys projecting well in the models. Good luck tonight!

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Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Gordon Hayward is coming off a nice 35.3 Draftkings performance last game and his price has actually dropped $200. At the time of writing this, there is virtually no value on the slate, so Hayward's modest price tag is going to attract a lot of attention tonight. I'll talk more about this in final thoughts, but there really isn't a major reason that Hayward should be drawing this much ownership.
• Jalen Williams might be a little too late onto the scene to win Rookie of the Year, but his play recently suggests he's trying to make a push. Williams has scored 38+ Draftkings points in 7 of his last 10 games, including 38.5 Draftkings points last game in the same exact matchup. As I mentioned above, this slate is severely lacking for value, so someone who hasn't scored less than 29.5 Draftkings points in his last 12 games priced at $6,700 is a nice value play tonight.
• Eric Gordon is likely to enter the starting lineup for Paul George, who got hurt when these two teams played 2 nights ago. Gordon is going to draw a ton of ownership at just $5,300 on Draftkings. However, Gordon has been playing upper 20 minutes for 7 straight games and has only eclipsed 23.5 Draftkings points once. While Gordon is likely stepping into increased usage, he is streaky and nowhere close to cheap. Despite projecting for the ownership of a “smash” chalk play, Gordon is expensive enough tonight to come in well under the field.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Russell Westbrook

Eric Gordon

Jalen Williams

Gordon Hayward

Mitchell Robinson

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: SGA, Josh Giddey, Immanuel Quickley

SG: Caris Levert, Isaiah Joe, Kelly Oubre

SF: Cam Johnson, Kawhi, Josh Hart

PF: Julius Randle, DFS, Royce Oneale

C: Ivica Zubac, Wendell Carter, Nic Claxton

DFS Popular Player: Gordon Hayward

Price: $5,700/$6,300
Own%: 53.09%/46.44%

DFS Value Player: Jalen Williams

Price: $6,700/$7.500
5x%: 38%/31%

Player to Avoid in DFS: Eric Gordon

Price: $5,300/$5,800
LevX: -28.66/-26.23

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

Unless Jalen Brunson goes from Questionable to out, this slate is starved of value. These can be great slates for GPP bros, players like Gordon Hayward and Eric Gordon are projecting for outsized ownership for no real reason other than having slightly better median projections than players around them. Pay close attention to players projections in comparison to their ownership and find spots where you can play players with similar projections at fractions of the ownership. Good luck tonight!

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Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Sandro Mamukelashvili is projected to be the highest owned player in DFS tonight on both sites. The Spurs essentially have no frontcourt which leaves Mamu as one of the last men standing. Accordingly, he should get as many minutes as he can handle regardless of game script. Additionally, he’s actually a fairly solid fantasy point per minute guy as he’s averaging 0.84 FPPM on the season. A fade is never completely off the table in GPPs, but this is pretty strong value chalk.
• Keita Bates-Diop stands to benefit for all of the same reasons as Mamu mentioned above, however, he’s even cheaper. Due to his low price he rates out as one of the strongest values on the slate. That said, playing multiple high-owned players from a clearly tanking team is not for the faint of heart. While both Bates-Diop and Mamu rate well, be mindful of the collective ownership of your lineups tonight.
• Jaden Ivey will be another popular option from a tanking team tonight. However, the problem is he’s not particularly cheap at a price above $6k on both sites. Additionally, his median projection kind of just sucks relative to his price (roughly 32 fpts). At high ownership this is a spot you can look to pivot off of in GPPs for sure.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Trae Young

AJ Griffin

Keita Bates-Diop

Sandro Mamukelashvili

Franz Wagner

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Shai Glizzy, Killian Hayes, Markelle Fultz

SG: Paul George, Donovan Mitchell, Bradley Beal

SF: Trey Murphy III, Brandon Ingram, Kawhi Leonard

PF: Keegan Murray, Cam Johnson, Kristaps Porzingis

C: Jarrett Allen (if IN), Jonas Valanciunas, Ivica Zubac

DFS Popular Player: Sandro Mamukelashvili

Price: $4,200/$5,100
Own%: 70.00%/69.45%

DFS Value Player: Keita Bates-Diop

Price: $3,700/$5,100
5x%: 71%/28%

Player to Avoid in DFS: Jaden Ivey

Price: $6,700/$6,800
LevX: -19.61/-31.28

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

Trae Young as the popular/opto spend up is one of the glaring spots to pivot off of in GPPs. Likewise, AJ Griffin seems like forced value as he actually doesn’t project all that well even considering his cheap price. Additionally, there is some direct leverage opportunity by going with some of the lower owned Pistons and Spurs. With only 6 games and some very concentrated chalk this is a good slate for GPPs. Direct leverage, price range pivots, and lower owned studs are all in play tonight whether you go with one of those routes or multiple. The one thing to be mindful of is the amount of leverage needed for the types of contests you’re in. Good luck tonight!

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Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Simone Fontecchio is not the new special at Olive Garden. He is, in fact, one of the highest owned DFS plays on the slate tonight. The Italian rookie has seen his minutes increase steadily and is currently projected for over 25 minutes tonight. He’s currently $3.6k on Draftkings and $4.7k on Fanduel. With limited pivot options available this may be a plug and play spot.
• Kelly Olynyk averages around a fantasy point per minute and should play over 30 minutes tonight. Furthermore, the Jazz will be without Markkanen, Sexton, and Clarkson which shortens the rotation and opens up a ton of usage. Olynyk is priced in the $5k range on both sites and has 40-point upside. Due to these combination of factors he rates out as one of the stronger value plays on tonight’s slate.
• Terry Rozier will be high owned, isn’t particularly cheap, and is more volatile than people may realize. Additionally, the Hornets have absolutely zero incentive to actually win games at this point in the season. Granted, there is some opportunity here with Ball, Martin, and Williams all out but just play one of the cheaper Hornets and fade Rozier in GPPs.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Terry Rozier

Kelly Oubre Jr.

Simone Fontecchio

Taurean Prince

Kelly Olynyk

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Brunson, Tyus Jones

SG: Ochai Agbaji, Klay Thompson, Zach LaVine

SF: Talen Horton-Tucker, Josh Hart, DeMar DeRozan

PF: Trey Lyles (if IN), Jaren Jackson Jr (if IN)., Julius Randle

C: Kevon Looney, Nikola Vucevic, Myles Turner

DFS Popular Player: Simone Fontecchio

Price: $3,600/$4,700
Own%: 40.64%/30.15%

DFS Value Player: Kelly Olynyk

Price: $5,700/$5,800
5x%: 34%/35%

Player to Avoid in DFS: Terry Rozier

Price: $7,900/$8,400
LevX: -28.19/-34.71

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

Chalk Jazz and Hornets just feels gross but that’s late season NBA DFS for you. The wise move is probably to prioritize the value chalk over the mid-range chalk as that is usually harder to pivot off of. Additionally, there are some direct leverage opportunities off of some of the higher owned plays tonight in guys like Horton-Tucker, Dennis Smith Jr., Mike Conley, and Tyus Jones. While some of them may not be sub-10% owned, they still project for about half the ownership of some of their teammates. With the amount of value this is likely a double spend up slate so keep that in mind as it will likely be a popular construction. Good luck tonight!

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Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Desmond Bane is in the exact same spot as last night, the only difference is the opponent. The Grizzlies go from being on the road versus Spurs to at home versus the Warriors. Bane should play over 30 minutes and has produced at a solid rate with no Morant. He will be massively popular but is a strong play as far as median projection/ceiling combo.
• Nickeil Alexander-Walker grades out as a top DFS value play tonight for the Timberwolves. Anthony Edwards was injured yesterday and is currently questionable. However, given that he had to be helped off the court there’s a very high chance he sits the B2B. In his absence NAW played 27 minutes and currently projects for 28 minutes tonight. His price hasn’t really been adjusted by either site which makes him a hard fade.
• Tyus Jones will once again be popular tonight for the Grizzlies, however, he has a lower median projection than Bane which leads to more viable pivots off of Jones. Granted, he smashed last night but that was also against a tanking Spurs team in overtime.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Tyus Jones

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Desmond Bane

Jordan Nwora

Joel Embiid

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Coby White, Steph Curry, Malcolm Brogdon

SG: Tyler Herro, Talen Horton-Tucker, Bradley Beal

SF: Kyle Anderson, Buddy Hield, Zach LaVine

PF: Keegan Murray, Kelly Olynyk, Scottie Barnes

C: Draymond Green, Walker Kessler, Jaren Jackson Jr.

DFS Popular Player: Desmond Bane

Price: $7,800/$8,100
Own%: 42.53%/56.03%

DFS Value Player: Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Price: $3,600/$4,200
5x%: 60%/49%

Player to Avoid in DFS: Tyus Jones

Price: $6,900/$6,500
LevX: -15.29/-49.53

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

Based on current ownership and optimizer builds 3 Grizzlies and 2 Wolves is going to be a popular starting point for DFS lineups tonight. Pretty much everyone on the Grizzlies is going to carry ownership so there’s not a ton of leverage, but JJJ and Brooks would be the two lowest owned. As for Minnesota, if Ant is out you probably just take the free square in NAW, however, Conley and Kyle Anderson will be lower owned than him and worth a look in GPPs. Lastly, the value tonight is a little cheaper than yesterday leading to more stars and scrubs builds. Thus, an alternative approach in GPPs would be to go with a more balanced build. Good luck tonight!

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Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.