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Paydirt NHL DFS Hat Trick 10.15.2023

Welcome to the NHL DFS Hat Trick here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NHL DFS slate. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

  • Slate ownership is focused on TOR FL1 (77.67%), TOR FL2 (62.2%), and NJ FL1 (57.9%). While TOR FL1 has the highest ownership, NJ FL1 has a slightly higher median projection making them the better point-per-$ line. Additionally, this suggests that while many players might focus on TOR FL1 due to the renowned performance of players like Auston Matthews, the New Jersey line may offer better value.
  • At the goalie position ownership is focused on Joseph Woll (TOR), followed by Vanecek (NJ), and Kuemper (WSH). Given that TOR and NJ also project to be the two highest owned stacks we can surmise that many people are pairing goalie with their stack. Consequently, an easy way to get different in GPPs is to not pair the TOR or NJ goalie with their respective stacks.
  • Teams like DET FL1 and CBJ FL2 might be considered more cost-effective options with ownership below 50% and salaries under 18,000, yet decent median projections of 30.74 and 31.86 respectively. They may offer good value for their price.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details:

NHL Cash Stacks:

These stacks will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use players primarily from these stacks, it's not a requirement. They can also be used as GPP mini-stacks in contrarian builds.

#1 Stack: TOR FL1 (Bertuzzi, Matthews, Marner)
#2 Stack: NJ FL1 (Toffoli, Bratt, J. Hughes)
#3 Stack: FLA FL2 (Verhaeghe, Tkachuk, Luostarinen)

NHL GPP Stacks:

These stacks will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. They are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

#1 Stack: ARI FL1 (Schmaltz, Keller, Hayton)
#2 Stack: NYR FL3 (Trocheck, Wheeler, Cuylle)
#3 Stack: WAS FL1 (Ovechkin, Oshie, Backstrom)

NHL DFS Final Thoughts

While it might be tempting to bank on the top-performing lines, diversifying your picks can hedge against potential underperformances. Therefore, consider mixing high-ownership with low-ownership lines for a balanced approach. Furthermore, while following ownership percentages and median projections offer a guide there's always room for intuition and taking calculated risks. Tonight for example, if not playing either TOR or NJ you can gain massive leverage in tournaments by playing the opposing goalie. Additionally, you can also consider playing the opposite side of those respective matchups.

GL and let's bake some bread!

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