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Paydirt CFB DFS Triple Option 09.30.2023

Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

  • Slate ownership is focused on Ashton Jeanty and Blake Watson (RB) from either side of the BSU/MEM game Both are projected for over 60% ownership. At the quarterback position, Caleb Williams leads the way with 34.50% ownership. Due to Williams high price, ownership is inflated on cheaper Qbs to pair with him like Taylen Green and Hudson Card. The spotlight at wide receiver is on Isaiah Williams (WR, IL) with 34.50% ownership against PUR. His projected median of 18.31 and a salary of $5700 underline the balance he brings to the roster, making him a strong small field and cash play.
  • BSU and MEM look like the chalk stacks given the high ownership across their teams. However, the ownership is heavily concentrated on QB/RB so playing the pass catchers could be a good way to differentiate the stack. Purdue also looks popular with Hudson Card and his two primary receivers. UT deserves GPP consideration in what a potential high-upside spot versus Kansas.
  • Ashton Jeanty (RB, BSU) and Blake Watson (RB, MEM) are clearly the chalk with ownership percentages at 66.78% and 61.79% respectively, and high median projections. However, Cam Skattebo has just as much upside at significantly less ownership. Similarly, Jeremiah Hunter makes a strong pivot off of Isaiah Williams.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

CFB Cash Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

QB: Caleb Williams
RB: Ashton Jeanty
WR1: Isaiah Williams
WR2: Brock Bowers
Flex: Blake Watson

CFB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

QB: Luke Altmyer
RB: Cam Skattebo
WR1: Jeremiah Hunter
WR2: Roc Taylor
Flex: Ray Davis

DFS Stack Considerations

Colorado University (CU)
University of Texas (UT)
University of Memphis (MEM)

CFB DFS Final Thoughts

Creating a balanced lineup with a mix of high and low-salary players can offer a diversified point source. While high-salary players like Caleb Williams (USC) can be foundational pieces due to their high median projections, the inclusion of value plays is crucial to accommodate salary constraints. Furthermore, the same can be said of balancing high and low-owned players. Cam Skattebo, Ray Davis look like strong GPP options at the RB position, while the COL receivers represent high-upside at low-ownership. Additionally, COL, UT and ASU/CAL are potential stacking opportunities to gain leverage.

GL and let's bake some bread!

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Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Week 4

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

Chalk DFS Plays:

  • Kyren Williams (21.72%)
  • Pat Freiermuth (18.06%)
  • Adam Thielen (16.93%)
  • Tony Pollard (16.85%)
  • Miles Sanders (16.41%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams is expected to be the highest owned player on the slate at 21.72% ownership. There's noticeable void of alternative choices within the RB position. Miles Sanders will also be popular which leaves Zack Moss as the only true RB pivot. However, at the FLEX spot comparably priced receivers like DeAndre Hopkins or Brandon Aiyuk, who have lower ownerships of 4.00% and 2.87% respectively, can offer a distinct edge.

Pat Freiermuth

Freiermuth is inexplicably projected to be 18% owned and looks like the worst piece of chalk on the slate by a wide margin. His median projection, ceiling, and Top Finish% are all mediocre at best. Furthermore, there are 7 viable pivots at his position.

Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen looks like solid chalk at his price point. Tank Dell projects to be almost as highly owned and a lot of optimizers are putting them together in lineups. Elijah Moore would be a pivot we could consider but the QB situation for Cleveland is questionable.

Tony Pollard

Similar to Kyren Williams, there are no pivots to Pollard at the RB position. However, at the FLEX there are several receiver options with lower ownership. Ja'Maar Chase rates as a better play outright, while CeeDee Lamb provides direct leverage. Lastly, AJ Brown and Jaylen Waddle can also be considered.

Miles Sanders

Miles Sanders being “good” versus “bad” chalk likely depends where you play him. At the RB spot the only real pivot is Rachaad White, or Zack Moss who projects slightly worse. However, at the FLEX there are several low owned receivers options that project better and with higher ceilings.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

Kyren Williams and Adam Thielen are more roster-dependent plays on this slate. Both can be integrated into lower-owned roster constructions but consider pivoting if your lineup is already saturated with high-owned players, to maintain a balanced approach. Tony Pollard and Miles Sanders look fine at their position, but there are multiple pivots with comparably priced receivers. Lastly, Pat Freiermuth is awful chalk.

Good luck and let's bake some bread!

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  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
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Paydirt CFB DFS Triple Option 09.29.2023

Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

  • Slate ownership is highlighted by a substantial focus on Torrance Burgess Jr. (RB) from UTEP, projected for 73.90% ownership against LT. At the quarterback position, Brennan Armstrong from NCST and Emory Jones from CINCY stand out with 46.80% and 52.30% ownership respectively. The spotlight at wide receiver is on Smoke Harris (LT) with 49.10% ownership against UTEP. His projected median of 17.83 and a salary of $6800 underline the balance he brings to the roster, blending reliability with affordability.
  • UL and BYU look like the chalk stacks given the high ownership across their teams. However, playing Jake Plummer in a UL stack given his lower ownership is a good way to get different. LT also deserves GPP consideration.
  • LJ Martin (RB) is projected for a staggering 62% ownership despite a middling median projection. Damien Martinez and Jaylon Glover both look like great GPP pivots at significantly lower ownership and similar median projection.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

CFB Cash Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

QB: Brennan Armstrong
RB: Torrence Burgess Jr.
WR1: Jamari Thrash
WR2: Smoke Harris
Flex: Jawhar Jordan

CFB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

QB: Jack Turner
RB: Jaylon Glover
WR1: Kevin Concepcion
WR2: Tyrin Smith
Flex: Damien Martinez

DFS Stack Considerations

Louisiana Tech (LT)
North Carolina State (NCST)
University of Louisville (UL)

CFB DFS Final Thoughts

While stacking high ownership players with high median projections can provide a solid floor, it might not offer a unique lineup in large field tournaments. Therefore, diversification with lower-owned players is crucial to gain an edge. Isaac Rex at 61% projected ownership presents a great leverage opportunity. You can play either of his teammates Chase Roberts or Darius Lassiter at far less ownership. Additionally, while both LT receivers are projecting to be high-owned the QB is going low-owned. Thus, LT is one of the best GPP stacks on the slate.

GL and let's bake some bread!

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Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
  • Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.
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NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Lions vs. Packers

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

  • David Montgomery looks slightly overvalued at the FLEX but well undervalued at captain, assuming ownership projections are accurate.
  • The most duplicated builds will have a combo of Amon-Ra St.Brown, a QB, and David Montgomery, so look to avoid combos like that without more extreme leverage added.
  • Building for a low scoring affair without QBs involved is a unique way to approach the slate, and seems like a solid path to leverage Montgomery ownership

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

The most valuable captain tonight is David Montgomery, who looks a bit undervalued by the indsutry at the position. His projected ownership at the position is around 10%, but his exposure in the contest sims is almost 16%. He offers the most positive leverage at the moment, but there’s not a lot of room for that leverage if he gets more popular up to lock.

On the other side of the table is Jared Goff, who looks to be the most overvalued captain. His exposures in contest winners is just 11% while his projected ownership is around 18%. While he is still one of the most valuable captains, there’s going to be leverage gained by avoiding him in single entry and three max contests.

FLEX ownership distributions

By far the most valuable FLEX option tonight is Amon-Ra St.Brown with an exposure – projected ownership of almost +32%. His exposure of 75% in contest winners is a step above anyone else on the slate, and gives a lot of room even if projected ownership is low on him overall. While he doesn’t make a very good captain because of price, he represents a terrific FLEX play that is likely undervalued even at high ownership.

In terms of the most negative value added, we have three players separated from the rest: AJ Dillon, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs. One obvious note is all three of these players are Packers! In fact, four of the five players offering the worst negative leverage are from Green Bay. This represents a clear path in terms of game flow and roster construction when building with leans and stacks.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

  • There are no free squares tonight. The most valuable player overall is Amon-Ra St.Brown, but he by no means represents a free square considering the DET touchdown distributions and possible gameflow differences
  • Both DET running backs are in play here, and playing them together is an interesting large field tactic
  • Both defenses and both kickers are appropriately valued

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

We see a lot of kicker captains here along with a couple Packers DST captains as well. After that, we get a handful of Laporta followed by both QBs. Interestingly enough, we don’t see much Amon-Ra St.Brown, which is mostly a function of price but does represent an interesting spot to be different.

In the FLEX there is a very clear combo to avoid: St.Brown, a QB, and David Montgomery. Both iterations of St.Brown/Love/Montgomery and St.Brown/Goff/Montgomery will be heavily owned, and if you add Josh Reynolds to that you are looking at heavy duplication. Avoiding these combos or introducing extreme leverage to them in the remaining spots is important.

In terms of unique roster paths, going with a no QB build is really interesting. Neither of these teams wants to push the pace which could easily result in a lower scoring game. The pass catchers and RBs can get there in that environment while both QBs fail to score enough in raw points to make winning lineups.

One other quick call out: I think Kalif Raymond is a really strong play tonight in GPPs. Last week he eclipsed Marvin Jones in snap count and routes and is looking well undervalued tonight based on an increasing role.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This is a great showdown slate with good pricing and a lot of interesting directions to go based on two relatively flat offenses. There are going to be a lot of people that build lineups based on median expectations that miss out on a lot of ceiling because of the way these players eat into production of one another. One spot that people will likely mess up is playing Montgomery and Goff together in GPPs, where it’s unlikely both get there based on gamescripts. The biggest edge tonight is likely choosing the correct gameflow and building towards it rather than building the highest median expectation team.

There are two feasible paths to build: A high scoring game, where DET falls behind and is forced to catch up, or a lower scoring grinder where neither team is able to capitalize quickly and trade scores up to a 21-17 win. A high scoring game likely necessitates Jordan Love and Amon-Ra St.Brown, where a low scoring game is built around David Montgomery and no QBs. My current lean is a 4-2 DET build for a low scoring gamescript, but I think a 3-3 with both QBs is great too.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • AJ Dillon
  • Jared Goff (CPT)
  • Christian Watson (FLEX)

Some players that look undervalued:

  • David Montgomery (CPT)
  • Amon-Ra St.Brown (FLEX)
  • Kalif Raymond (Loins play)

Good luck and bink a unique

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  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
  • Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

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NFL DFS 2023 Week 3 Monday Main and Showdowns writeup

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NFL DFS Monday main slate breakdown:

Highest projected ownership

  • Joe Mixon projecting as huge chalk mostly because it's hard to spend your salary cap is pretty interesting condidering how bad the Bengals offense could possibly be tonight.
  • PHI looks like the most heavily overowned team on the slate by a longshot based on the contest sims.
  • Nowhere in site are TB options, which goes well in line with the contest sims finding them incredibly undervalued.

Overall slate notes

  • I mentioned the contest sims a couple times up above, and they have a clear stand on the slate with TB being the most undervalued option and PHI being the most overvalued.
  • In fact, Jalen Hurts is the worst play on the slate in that regard, which is obviously a bit of a hot take overall.
  • The Bengals will either have a half health Joe Burrow or a backup QB, both of which hurt the efficiency of this lineup overall and make them the worst option from a median standpoint in both the main slate and showdown contests.
  • The highest leverage option on the slate tonight is actually Rachaad White, so using him as much as you feel comfortable is advised.
  • It’s always fun when the field is heavily exposed to one side and the models here have the complete opposite take. The interesting part overall is that you can still get exposure to the PHI side of things so long as you use a heavier lean to the TB options. LAR stacks make a lot of sense as well, and locking in Puka with an insane role is necessary. The biggest thing tonight is trying to avoid all CIN options outside of the cheap ones. Outside of that, mix and match with leans towards TB and LAR and you are good to go.
For more info and alerts on new articles, follow me at @Paydirt_DFS on Twitter!

TB vs. PHI showdown:

Captain exposures

Flex exposures

  • Similarly to what was written about the main slate, we see TB being the much higher value side to back in this showdown than the PHI side.
  • Jalen Hurts makes for the best captain, but Rachaad White and Mike Evans make for the most valuable FLEX options
  • In terms of dupe potential, I don’t think you’ll have to worry about much overall.

This showdown is pretty spread out even with two offenses with relatively condensed targetshares. The reason for that is the pricing is, all things considered, really good and it forces you to focus on only a select couple of high end options while leaving out other important ones.

The contest sims have a clear lean towards TB here and I agree with it. I think a 2-4 with Hurts in the captain slot is really interesting and gives you plenty of upside and ways to win while avoiding a handful of the PHI options. Likewise, a 4-2 with Either Baker or White at captain and Hurts in the FLEX makes a lot of sense as well.

LAR vs. CIN showdown:

Captain exposures

Flex exposures

This showdown is really straight forward and I don’t think you have to dig too far into the sims or models to build for it. Puka is a lock in every lineup you make. He can be captain or Flex it doesn’t really matter all that much, but you need to use him. Likewise, CIN is not healthy and Burrow is either going to play and be limited or be inactive with a backup taking his place. The only options you should consider from CIN are Ja’Marr Chase (an alpha) or Tyler Boyd (cheap). The best way to build is a 5-1 with LAR lean or a 4-2 with Chase and Boyd if you feel like CIN will be able to move the ball somewhat effectively.

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  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
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  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

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NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Raiders vs. Steelers

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

  • Najee Harris sucks but he also does not quite suck as bad as the field thinks, so he makes a worthwhile captain
  • The defenses and kickers look like they will lead to high dupe counts, so try to avoid using multiple of them in your GPP builds
  • This is one of the most wide open showdowns we have had, if you don’t feel comfortable with your lineup you are on the right track

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

I will be very clear: I am unhappy about these results. Najee Harris sucks. I do not want to use him. But he does offer the most leverage at captain based on the difference in exposure and projected ownership at the position. It’s just all very disappointing. On the other side, Jimmy Garoppolo offers the most negative leverage as a CPT on this slate. His projected ownership at the slot is almost 19% while his exposure there is just 11%.

FLEX ownership distributions

The highest leverage offered in the FLEX spot goes to Jakobi Meyers, followed by Josh Jacobs. Both project for modest ownership in this slot and have high exposure rates. Meyers specifically has some great expected fantasy point metrics and Josh Jacobs has one of the best roles of any RB in fantasy, so this isn’t really surprising. Meanwhile, Pat Friermuth and both defensives offer the most negative leverage. Once again, this is disappointing, as it means we should be playing for a relatively high scoring affair between these two wet towel teams.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

  • There are no free squares tonight, in fact this is one of the more wide open slates we have seen so far this year
  • There’s some interesting ways to build using both PIT running backs considering Kenny Pickett throws like an overweight 6th grader
  • Both kickers offer some slight leverage overall, making them more valuable than either DST

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The vast majority of lineups with a high dupe chance are going to be Davante Adams, one of the kickers, or the fucking DST. This may end up being the fishiest showdown slate of all time if a heavily duped lineup ends up winning.  The most dupe-prone combo is going to be a FLEX trio of Adams, Garoppolo, and Pickett with Josh Jacobs a premier piece as well. I think the biggest edge for this showdown is just to play a lineup that wins when these teams actually score points. Most people will be building with the kickers and DST and probably Josh Jacobs, so playing things that neutralize DST and Kickers gives the most leverage.

That said, Maybe the best way to beat the field is by using no RBs at all? Look to these teams to score points through the air and maximize your correlation to the points scored. Josh Jacobs with Jimmy G might be an exception here, but using either of Warren or Najee with Pickett is likely wasted EV.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This is actually a really tough showdown once you get into the ways to beat the field. There are some gross ways, like Najee Harris captain, that let you pass the field with a more common win condition while getting direct leverage over more popular pieces. On the other hand, there are ways that feel less gross, like stacking the passing game, but go against what these teams are most likely to do. Both options are valid in terms of showdown, and there are no great answers in terms of maintaining upside while building apart from the field.

As of now, I see two main paths that I am likely to follow: Najee Harris captain with a Pickett fade, leaning towards a 4-2 PIT stack, or a 3-3 gamestack with a 4-2 LV lean since I think their offense is more condensed. Either way it’s hard to feel great about building either. Very fun!

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Defenses and Kickers
  • Jimmy G (Cpt)
  • Pat Freiermuth

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Passing stacks
  • Najee Harris (CPT)
  • Josh Jacobs

Good luck and bink a unique

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  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
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NFL DFS 2023 Week 3 Thoughts and Notes

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections

  • Highest team total on the slate is KC at 30.25, lowest is ARI at 15
  • Highest pass TD projection is KC at 2.64, highest rush TD total is DAL at 1.32
  • Highest dropback projection is MIN at 41.75, highest rush attempt projection is DAL at 31.64

There are a handful of teams here that are interesting and a handful that look like pretty bad trending plays. There’s been a lot of chatter on CHI (17.75 team total) and HOU (18.00 team total) and typically it’s bad to play teams in those positions. HOU, for instance, will likely have considerably more ownership than a stack like NE who has a higher team total based entirely on garbage time heroics the last two weeks. Some rushing spots that look good that people aren’t really gravitating towards are BAL (8 point home favorites against a bad IND team) and MIA (chalk is on the passing attack, not Mostert).

Highest projected ownership

  • Joshua Kelley chalk again is, uhh, interesting?
  • Kirk Cousins as big chalk always, always works out perfectly right?
  • Jerome Ford not being chalk is a good opportunity to leverage.

Joshua Kelley chalk is bad. His usage was better last week but if an RB isn’t getting a passing role in the LAC offense they are just wildly TD dependent. Tony Pollard looks like some great chalk, as does Jahmyr Gibbs, but I’m interested to see how people fit them with Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill chalk. My guess is people are going to use 2-TE builds to make it work, which feels bad. Would prefer one of Jefferson/Tyreek and paying up at RB to make the FLEX a higher upside fill. The other important piece today is Zack Moss, who has seen his ownership projection drop considerably. He’s one of the best plays on the slate.

Overall slate notes

  • Based on ownership, I think that Ford should end up being underowned and Joshua Kelley well overowned. Sticking with RB notes, I would say that Zack Moss is probably the best play on the slate considering ownership, price, and upside of role.
  • As far as stacks go, I just don’t think I can see myself landing on HOU stacks or CHI stacks. Both are looking like they’ll get a good amount more ownership than advertised to fit Tyreek and Justin Jefferson together in GPPs. I prefer paying up for the high end stacks and especially prefer gamestacking the MIN/LAC game. I don’t think that will be a low owned route, so be reticent of that in larger fields.
  • As far as cash games go, there are actually quite a few routes. You can either pay down at RB and TE and fit Jefferson and Tyreek (my preference) or you can pay for Pollard with them and punt everything else. I don’t think that there is a one size fits all in cash this week at all.
For more info and alerts on new articles, follow me at @Paydirt_DFS on Twitter!

NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

(Added after 12pm EST)

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Kirk Cousins
RB – Jerome Ford
RB – Joshua Kelley
WR – Christian Kirk
WR – Justin Jefferson
TE – Durham Smythe
DST – Bills

NFL DFS GPP Core:

(Added after 10am EST)

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Justin Herbert, Tua, Josh Allen
RB – Jerome Ford, Zack Moss, Jahmyr Gibbs
WR – Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley, River Cracraft
TE – Travis Kelce, Durham Smythe, Dalton Kincaid
DST – Whoever you want

Powerful tools for every sport

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  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
  • Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

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Paydirt CFB DFS Triple Option 09.23.2023

Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

  • Slate ownership is highlighted by a substantial focus on Rasheen Ali (RB) from MRSHL, boasting a 46.63% ownership projection. At the quarterback position, Chandler Morris (TCU) emerges as a noteworthy option against SMU, with 31.96% projected ownership and an impressive median of 26.71 at $7.8k. The spotlight at wide receiver is on Troy Franklin of ORE, who remains a preferred choice against COL in what should be a high-scoring affair.
  • TCU, TTU and ORE appear to be popular stacking options today, given the high ownership at different positions from these teams. However, COL, UL, and Cincy all deserve consideration in GPPs.
  • Bucky Irving (RB) from ORE will be another chalk play, projected for 35.83% ownership and a median of 22.34 against COL. However, for those looking to pivot from high ownership, considering less-owned yet promising options like Blake Corum at only 4.25% ownership and a median of 20.65.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

CFB Cash Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

QB: Chandler Morris
RB: Rasheen Ali
WR1: Jamari Thrash
WR2: Troy Franklin
Flex: Devin Neal

CFB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

QB: Shedeur Sanders
RB: Blake Corum
WR1: Xzavier Henderson
WR2: Xavier Weaver
Flex: Will Shipley

DFS Stack Considerations

Colorado (COL)
Cincinatti (CINCY)
University of Louisville (UL)

CFB DFS Final Thoughts

Today sets up to be a strong GPP slate due to there being multiple options in good spots but pretty concentrated ownership. COL looks like an amazing GPP play as ownership is heavily focused on ORE on the other side of the matchup. Additionally, the QB/RB/WR for UL all have solid median projections and reasonable ownership but will be overlooked as a stack. Lastly, Emory Jones and Xzavier Henderson make a solid skinny stack with ownership low enough to allow you to play the chalk.

GL and let's bake some bread!

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Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Week 3

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

Chalk DFS Plays:

  • Jerome Ford (26.73%)
  • Justin Jefferson (25.17%)
  • Keenan Allen (19.32%)
  • Kenneth Walker III (17.09%)
  • Nico Collins (16.98%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Jerome Ford

Jerome Ford is expected to be the highest owned player on the slate after a gruesome injury ended Nick Chubb's season. Despite there being several pivot options, none of them are at the RB position. Therefore, if going with a cheap RB construction you'll likely want to just eat the chalk. However, if it is the Flex spot you can get different by playing similarly priced receivers.

Justin Jefferson

Jefferson stands alone this week. Given the constraints of within +/- $300 salary and +/- 3 points of median projection, there is no pivot to Jefferson. That said, Tyreek Hill is within a point of median projection of meeting the pivot requirements so he would be the option.

Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen sits atop his price range, but unlike Jefferson there are some viable pivots. Amon-Ra and CeeDee Lamb have similar median projections and Top Finish% to Allen at a fraction of the ownership. Bijan Robinson can also be considered but has a lower ceiling.

Kenneth Walker III

Kenneth Walker looks like pretty bad chalk this week. James Cook and James Conner look like similar plays with significantly less ownership. Furthermore, Raheem Mostert rates as the clear top play in this range and psition

Nico Collins

Nico Collins doesn't necessarily rate poorly, however, there are several guys with better projections. Terry McLaurin, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, and Michael Thomas not only project higher than Nico, but have higher ceilings and Top Finish% as well.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

Jerome Ford and Keenan Allen are more roster dependent plays. If your build calls for a cheap RB you should probably just play Ford. However, if it's a cheap Flex option there are pivots available. Similarly, Keenan Allen can be plugged in to lower-owned roster builds but pivot if you're playing other high-owned players. Lastly, Jordan Addison can give you some 2 for 1 differentiation. Not only is Addison a pivot off of Nico Collins, but he's also direct leverage off of Justin Jefferson.

Good luck and let's bake some bread!

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  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
  • Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

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Paydirt CFB DFS Triple Option 09.22.2023

Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

  • Slate ownership appears to focus on Ashton Jeanty (RB) boasting a dominant 92.10% DK Ownership projection. Additionally, Braelon Allen (RB) from WISC is gaining significant attention, claiming 57.20% DK Ownership despite his elevated salary of $7900. The UV receivers, Malachi Fields, and Malik Washington, with ownership of 56.70% and 48.30% respectively, are also likely to be chalk plays today.
  • Purdue (PUR) is emerging as a popular stack due to the presence of players like Hudson Card (QB), Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (WR), and Deion Burks (WR), all showcasing notable ownership. Hudson’s strong median projection and reasonable salary could make PUR stacks notably popular. In GPPs, University of Virginia (UV), and North Carolina State (NCST) both deserve consideration.
  • Braelon Allen will be popular, however, his volatile performances indicate a high-risk, high-reward situation given the split backfield. With a substantial portion of the field expected to jam him in, a pivot to Chez Mellusi with less ownership and salary may be the move in GPPs.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

CFB Cash Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

QB: Hudson Card
RB: Ashton Jeanty
WR1: Deion Burks
WR2: Malachi Fields
Flex: Braelon Allen

CFB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

QB: Taylen Green
RB: Chez Mellusi
WR1: Nick Nash
WR2: Eric McAlister
Flex: Emmanuel Michel

DFS Stack Considerations

Purdue (PUR)
University of Virginia (UV)
North Carolina State (NCST)

CFB DFS Final Thoughts

The most straight forward decision point tonight is Braelon Allen. By either fading, or playing Chez as direct leverage you can potentially pass over half the field. Alternatively, Ashton Jeanty looks like chalk you should just eat. However, you can still get different with him by playing a BSU stack including Taylen Green and/or Eric McAlister. Brennan Armstrong has the highest exposure% in the contest sims and his receiver Kevin Concepcion has the highest edge% on the slate making NCST a strong GPP option.

GL and let's bake some bread!

Powerful tools for every sport

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Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
  • Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.