Tag: PGA

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G-PD Breakdown: PGA DFS – PGA Championship

Best overall plays

Based on the provided data, the top 5 players with the highest median scores are:

  1. Jon Rahm – With the highest median score of 73.95 and a top finish percentage of 24.60%, Rahm is a solid bet for any tournament. His strong showing continues in his top 5 finish percentage, at 58.66%, and ownership of 22.9. However, it is essential to factor in his salary of $11,400.00 while making the decision.
  2. Scottie Scheffler – Scheffler comes in at second with a median score of 67.91. His top finish percentage is 14.18%, while his top 5 finish percentage stands strong at 46.36%. Scheffler's ownership is slightly lower than Rahm's at 20.06, and his salary is also slightly lower at $11,200.00.
  3. Tony Finau – Finau stands third with a median score of 64.55. He has a top finish percentage of 8.52% and a top 5 finish percentage of 36.84%. Finau's ownership stands at 18.24. His salary is significantly lower than the top two players at $9,500.00, making him an interesting option considering his performance metrics.
  4. Xander Schauffele – Schauffele ranks fourth with a median score of 64.24. His top finish percentage is 8.48%, and his top 5 finish percentage is 35.96%. His ownership of 20.66 is slightly higher than Finau's, and his salary stands at $9,900.00.
  5. Patrick Cantlay – Cantlay is the fifth player on this list, with a median score of 63.42. He has a top finish percentage of 7.48% and a top 5 finish percentage of 34.02%. Cantlay's ownership stands at 19.19, and his salary is $9,700.00.

Overall, these five players are strong performers and good bets based on their median scores and finish percentages. However, their relatively high salaries mean that they might require a significant investment, which is something to consider when balancing the rest of your lineup.

Value Plays

Based on the provided dataset, the top five players with the highest 10x% percentages are:

  1. David Micheluzzi – With an incredible 10x% of 39.98%, Micheluzzi is a strong value player. This means he exceeds 10 times his salary in DFS production nearly 40% of the time. His Top_5_finish percentage of 20.70% is impressive, suggesting he's a consistent top performer. However, his ownership (Own) at only 0.33 indicates he is less popular among the player base, which may be advantageous in terms of unique roster construction in tournaments.
  2. Thomas Pieters – Pieters has a 10x% of 5.72%, significantly lower than Micheluzzi but still substantial. His Top_5_finish percentage is much lower, at 3.12%, indicating less frequent top performances. However, his Own statistic at 1.45 shows that he's a slightly more popular choice among players compared to Micheluzzi.
  3. Adam Scott – Scott has a 10x% of 5.66%, similar to Pieters. His Top_5_finish percentage is higher at 12.82%, indicating better consistency in top finishes. With a high Own statistic of 9.53, Scott is a popular choice among players, which may decrease the uniqueness of rostering him in tournament play.
  4. Aaron Wise – Wise shows a 10x% of 5.62%. His Top_5_finish percentage is the lowest among the top five, at only 2.98%. Wise is somewhat popular with an Own statistic of 1.24, but less so than Scott.
  5. Joaquin Niemann – Niemann has a 10x% of 4.12%. His Top_5_finish percentage is on the higher end among the top five, at 11.54%. With an Own statistic of 9.05, he is nearly as popular as Scott.

These statistics suggest that while some players have a higher potential for returns based on their 10x% rates, they may not consistently finish in top positions, as reflected by the Top_5_finish percentages. Ownership should also be taken into consideration when strategizing for tournaments, as lesser-owned players can provide a competitive edge.

Market inefficiencies

Based on the provided dataset, here are the players with the top 5 highest T5 v Salary ratios, a metric that shows the relationship between a player's salary and implied odds to finish top 5 in the tournament.

  1. Kyoung-Hoon Lee: With a T5 v Salary ratio of 1.31, Kyoung-Hoon Lee ranks first on the list. Despite a relatively low Top_finish and Top_5_finish percentage (0.06% and 1.10% respectively), his low salary of $6,700.00 has allowed him to secure a high T5 v Salary ratio. His ownership level stands at 19.23%.
  2. David Micheluzzi: David has a T5 v Salary ratio of 1.3, placing him second. His impressive Top_finish and Top_5_finish percentages (6.06% and 20.70% respectively) compared to his low salary of $6,000.00 explain his high value. However, he has a lower ownership level at 0.33%.
  3. Mito Pereira: With a T5 v Salary ratio of 1.16, Mito Pereira is third. His Top_finish and Top_5_finish percentages are relatively low (0.06% and 0.96% respectively), but given his modest salary of $7,000.00, he provides good value. His ownership is quite high at -12.82%.
  4. Si Woo Kim: Si Woo Kim secures fourth place with a T5 v Salary ratio of 1.13. His Top_finish and Top_5_finish percentages (0.04% and 1.64% respectively) are relatively low. But with a salary of $7,100.00 and a substantial ownership level of -7.69%, he offers significant value.
  5. Matt Kuchar: With a T5 v Salary ratio of 1.13, the same as Si Woo Kim's, Matt Kuchar takes fifth place. His Top_finish and Top_5_finish percentages (0.02% and 1.28% respectively) are lower than the players above, but his salary of $6,900.00 still provides good value. His ownership level stands at -3.85%.

These players offer strong value in terms of their T5 v Salary ratios. Despite having lower percentages for Top_finish and Top_5_finish, their relatively lower salaries give them a high T5 v Salary ratio, making them valuable picks. However, their ownership percentages suggest they may be underappreciated or overlooked by many players.

Overvalued plays

Analyzing the dataset, the players with the top 5 lowest LevX scores, indicating they are potentially overvalued, are as follows:

  1. Matt Fitzpatrick: With a salary of $8,400 and a LevX of -25.64%, Fitzpatrick tops the list of players to potentially avoid. Despite his high salary, his top finish percentage is quite low at 0.08% and his Top_5_finish percentage is 1.18%. His Ownership (Own) is also significant at 17.64, indicating many have chosen him despite his low performances.
  2. Keegan Bradley: Bradley, with a salary of $7,700 and LevX score of -23.08%, also seems to be overvalued. His top finish percentage is lower than Fitzpatrick's at 0.04%, and his Top_5_finish percentage is also lower at 0.86%. His ownership of 12.39 suggests that he might be a risky pick considering his statistics.
  3. Mito Pereira: With a salary of $7,000 and a LevX score of -12.82%, Pereira is third on our list. His top finish percentage is slightly better at 0.06% compared to Bradley, and his Top_5_finish percentage is higher at 0.96%. However, his ownership of 9.41 and negative LevX score indicates he may not be the best investment.
  4. Rickie Fowler: Fowler has a salary of $7,600 and a LevX score of -12.18%. His top finish percentage is 0.10% and his Top_5_finish percentage is 1.90%, both better than the players above. However, his ownership of 14.52 combined with the negative LevX score may suggest caution in choosing him.
  5. Dustin Johnson: Lastly, Johnson has a salary of $8,800 and a LevX score of -10.90%. His top finish and Top_5_finish percentages are 0.04% and 1.48% respectively, which are comparatively low. His ownership of 8.51 is lower than the rest, but the negative LevX score may still suggest a potential overvaluation.

To conclude, these players may be overvalued considering their higher ownership and lower performance rates. It's always crucial to analyze various performance metrics before making a decision, and LevX provides a key insight into players' valuations relative to their actual performances.