Tag: Showdown

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

• The name of the game today is fitting Mahomes and Hurts, and doing so while remaining competitive in the GPP without being duped is exceptionally difficult.
• The highest projected dupes completely lack both defenses, which makes them prime options in terms of building natural diversification.
• Enjoy the Superbowl and I hope to see you all next year at Paydirt!

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

The slate entirely comes down to building around Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. However, the optimizations much prefer Hurts thanks to a considerably higher median projection and rushing upside. Hurts has a CPT% in the optimizations of 48% while Mahomes is at just 2.78%. The projected ownership for both is around even at 13%, which says that Hurts is considerably undervalued even with the highest projected captain ownership on the slate. This feels akin to Josh Allen or Christian McCaffrey showdowns, where the field isn’t playing them enough even as the highest owned player overall.

The most overvalued player tonight is likely Travis Kelce. His projected ownership at captain is 10.71% while the optimizations only have him in the slot 2.41% of the time. Likewise in terms of FLEX his projected ownership sits at around 43% while his optimization exposure is only 28.76%. This isn’t necessarily a consequence of Kelce being a bad play, it’s more a consequence of his price. The optimizations prefer using only two studs, and Kelce ends up being left out of lineups because of it.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• AJ Brown looks way undervalued at both CPT and FLEX and is the second highest priority on the slate outside of Jalen Hurts, which creates a natural pairing.
• While Travis Kelce is overvalued, Juju Smith-Schuster looks undervalued especially at the FLEX spot.
• Both Kickers are well undervalued as salary saving options.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Nearly every one of the highest projected dupes is using Jalen Hurts, but that is to be expected. Outside of him, Patrick Mahomes and AJ Brown are highly exposed options as well.Interestingly, Miles Sanders is not seen here at all, and neither is the Eagles DST. That pairing may provide extreme leverage in large field contests while people assume the game to be high scoring. Likewise, the pairing of Isiah Pacheco and the Chiefs DST makes a lot of sense for Chiefs onslaughts as well.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

I wrote this during the CIN/BUF game, and it holds true tonight:

“It is going to be very, very hard to win the main GPP tonight on Draftkings with the size of the contest and generally condensed offenses. People are going to build out weird lineups with bad plays just to be unique, and I think that’s mostly a mistake. While you should certainly be off the board, I think it’s much better to be off the board in a way that maintains upside rather than throwing darts. 

Be different with roster construction and captain usage instead of playing someone like Royce Gilliam or whoever the fuck is going to get touted as a sneaky value option. Use defenses and kickers in weird ways. Fade Joe Burrow. Run a 5-1 BUF onslaught. But build something that isn’t unique in a bad way.”

The size of the contests tonight makes it hard to be unique, but that doesn’t mean you should throw optimal game theory out the window and just play fuck-all plays. The name of the game here is being thoughtful with your leverage and creating a lot of direct routes towards passing the field. For instance, playing Noah Gray in a lineup with the salary for Travis Kelce. Or playing Miles Sanders in a lineup that could have Jalen Hurts. Look for ways to build in a way that benefits while the field fails.

Overall, the optimizations have a clear taste for Hurts over Mahomes tonight, and they prefer the Eagles in general. Utilizing the combo of Hurts and AJ Brown instead of that of Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Utilizing RB/DST correlations and making onslaught lineups while the field plays for a competitive high scoring affair is a strong route as well. Finally, the main player that looks like a strong piece of a KC stack in place of Travis Kelce is Juju Smith-Schuster.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Travis Kelce
• Jerrick McKinnon
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Some players that look undervalued:

• Juju Smith-Schuster
• Jalen Hurts (CPT)
• Harrison Butker (FLEX)

Good luck and bink a unique!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

• You will likely have to fade one of the QBs tonight in large fields, and it’s Burrow that gets voted off the island.
• Highest duplications are likely to be built around Isaiah McKenzie, but adding Gabe Davis can remedy that.
• Don’t build bad lineups, focus on being different through roster construction rather than bad players.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

This slate, like most with the Bills, hinges on Josh Allen at captain. His projections in both the median and ceiling thresholds are just so much higher than the others available. Because of this, he makes for an undervalued captain and overvalued FLEX. Indeed, he will end up around 95% owned tonight across all slots and positions.

The most overvalued player tonight is looking like Joe Burrow. His captain exposures in the optimizations are just 3.81% against a projected ownership of 12.39%. While Burrow has an exceptional ceiling, it just doesn’t compare to that of Allen or even Ja’Marr Chase when taking price into consideration. Overall, you will likely have to make a choice to fade one of the QBs, and Burrow is the obvious odd man out.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• Both James Cook and Semaj Perine appear in no optimizations as captain, but Perine looks like an appropriately valued FLEX option.
• Tyler Boyd is well overvalued in both CPT and FLEX slots.
• Isaiah McKenzie is probably the best cheap option at FLEX, and looks well undervalued overall.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The vast majority of highly duplicated lineups look to have Isaiah McKenzie at captain. This is because of a modest price and his relatively high ceiling in the Bills offense. Indeed, 8 of the lineups you see above have him in the CPT slot. Joining him at captain here are both QBs, Ja’Marr Chase, and Joe Mixon. It’s worth noting that neither of Diggs or Davis end up in the highest dupes, which might be a nice place to get a bit different.

The main note on FLEX options above is that Gabe Davis is not used at all. With him being void of both captain and FLEX exposure in the high dupes, he makes for an obvious priority in larger field GPPs to induce differentiation. The only other note on dupes is that neither defense is used, which is a typical leak by the field in perceived shootouts.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

It is going to be very, very hard to win the main GPP tonight on Draftkings with the size of the contest and generally condensed offenses. People are going to build out weird lineups with bad plays just to be unique, and I think that’s mostly a mistake. While you should certainly be off the board, I think it’s much better to be off the board in a way that maintains upside rather than throwing darts. 

Be different with roster construction and captain usage instead of playing someone like Royce Gilliam or whoever the fuck is going to get touted as a sneaky value option. Use defenses and kickers in weird ways. Fade Joe Burrow. Run a 5-1 BUF onslaught. But build something that isn’t unique in a bad way.

Based on the optimizations, the main priorities tonight are Josh Allen CPT and Gabe Davis. Likewise, avoiding Joe Burrow is basically a must in the large field GPPs if you want to avoid heavily duplicated action. Finally, having the Bengals DST and hoping for some Josh Allen whoopsies is probably the best large field play you can make while being realistic.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Joe Burrow
• James Cook
• Tyler Boyd

Some players that look undervalued:

• Josh Allen (CPT)
• Gabe Davis
• Isaiah McKenzie

Good luck and bink a unique!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

• The running game for the Packers looks valuable, but people are ignoring AJ Dillon when building in that context.
• The highest predicted dupes are built with cheaper captains and a Packers emphasis, so mix in some Van Jefferson or Tyler Higbee.
• The clear path here is a Packers onslaught with AJ Dillon, but Rams stacks offer more relative value for larger fields.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

The most undervalued player on this slate based on optimizations is AJ Dillon. He has exposures at captain 22.26% of the time with a projected ownership there of only 9%. Likewise, his FLEX exposures trump his projected ownership 58% to 38%. On the other hand, the most overvalued captain is looking like Allen Lazard. His exposures are 2.6% at captain and 23.50% at FLEX while his projected ownerships are 8% and 35.70% respectively. There are no big avoids tonight, so just be mindful of the players with higher projected ownership than exposures in the table above when you build.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

With high priced players like Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones being used a lot in the FLEX, we can expect some of the cheaper options at captain. Both kickers will make there way up there along with the Packers DST. Interestingly, we will see some Ben Skowronek captain lineups even in 4-2 Packers builds because of the savings he offers. It’s worth noting that Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee look to be left out of nearly all the highest predicted dupes, making them important pieces when looking for differenations.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

A lot of people will likely be playing some variation of Packers DST with the run game on this slate. Aaron Jones is really popular, and people think the Rams suck. It’s a fair strategy, but it’s not giving enough credence to AJ Dillon as an option. He is coming in at about half the ownership of Aaron Jones and is a natural pivot in the exact same gamescript. Not to mention the Rams could very easily keep this close or flip the script entirely considering how bad the Packers have been at times this year. Overall it’s looking like Aaron Jones is either a fade or a compliment to AJ Dillon lineups overall.

In sum, there are two pretty clear paths in larger fields. Play AJ Dillon instead of Aaron Jones and build for a 4-2 or 5-1 Packers stomp, or play for a shootout with an emphasis on the Rams side. Both options given plenty of upside in all formats but the Rams play makes the most sense in much larger fields like the main GPP. 

Some players that look overvalued:

• Ben Skowronek
• Cam Akers
• Packers DST

Some players that look undervalued:

• AJ Dillon
• Baker Mayfield
• Rams DST

Good luck and bink a unique!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

• Christian McCaffrey is projected at wildly high ownership and is deserving of every last bit of it.
• Highly predicted duplications are heavily focused on Ray-Ray McCloud, so fading him seems like a good, easy way to get different.
• Depending on the game situation, you’ll want to prioritize either Jordan Mason or CMC at captain.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

Christian McCaffrey is projected to be the highest owned player on the slate by far at both captain and FLEX. He is also appropriately valued and should be the #1 priority on the slate. It’s not about fading him, it’s about how you get different with him in your lineups.

The most undervalued captain tonight is DK Metcalf. His captain exposures sit at 18.56% while his projected ownership there is just 8.27%. He’s also very undervalued at FLEX, with 64% exposure vs. just 37% expected ownership. On the other hand, the most overvalued player tonight is Tyler Lockett! With exposures of less than 1% at captain and just 12% in the FLEX, he makes sense as the easiest fade overall.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

There’s a healthy mix at captain tonight, but the highest exposed in the above lineups is Chrsitian McCaffrey. After him, we have some Walker, Geno, and Gould taking up equity along with a bit of Metcalf. Some notable players missing from the captains above are both defenses as well as Tyler Lockett. Overall, there’s enough value to do whatever you need to do at captain tonight. It’s worth saying that because of this, McCaffrey can be played in the FLEX to get different.

Speaking of the FLEX, we see more McCaffrey here but he’s not the highest exposure. Ray-Ray McCloud is actually the most used player in the highest predicted duplications. With no Deebo Samuel, it’s assumed that McCloud takes that role. However, in the preseason we saw plenty of Danny Gray and he’s getting basically no steam. It makes sense to go with Gray in otherwise highly duplicated lineups for some easy differentiation.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

Whenever we have a player projected at well over 90% total ownership it’s a tempting fade. However, that fade hardly ever works out outside of injury because the medians are so heavily in their favor. McCaffrey has had his injury issues in the past, but the 49ers are happy to limit his workload to prevent it. The only thing to do in this instance is relegate CMC to the FLEX and hope he doesn’t end up scoring the touchdowns. With that being said, mixing in some Jordan Mason is a great idea in large field GPPs, especially if you think the Seahawks get rolled here. Mason will be the lead back if SF gets a strong lead.

All of that being said, if you think SF wins this game handedly, Jordan Mason is the best play on the board. If you think SEA wins this game or keeps it close, CMC should be your captain. In both instances, mixing in some Danny Gray and DK MEtcalf seem to be strong ideas in the optimizations to give both upside and differentiation.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Tyler Lockett
• George Kittle
• Ray-Ray McCloud

Some players that look undervalued:

• DK Metcalf
• Danny Gray
• Seahawks DST

Good luck and bink a unique!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

The glaring difference in optimizations vs projected ownership is Tua being by far the best choice at captain. His optimization exposures are 42%, a super high mark, while his projected ownership there is only slightly higher than Herbert and Tyreek. His projection trumps the others by a significant margin, so he makes for a priority in the slot.

The most overvalued option is looking like Justin Herbert. While tua makes for a terrific captain, Herbert lacks the passing TD upside based on the Chargers usual trends. Because of this, his optimization exposures are just 2.30% at captain and 30.65% in the FLEX. 

Granted, these results are based on the numbers and not necessarily the upside. I think it’s worth saying that based on historical baselines, both Herbert and tua possess nearly the same upside, and utilizing either at captain is a strong move on this slate.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

While Tua appears in 40% of the highest duplication predictions here, it comes with some context. First off, he is by far the highest used option in the optimizations, so there’s more marbles in the bag here. Likewise, because of the amount of usable value on this slate, the expensive players like Tua are more accessible at captain. After him, we see Waddle as the next most used captain along with both Dolphins RBs. Interestingly there is no Tyreek in this set, which makes him a high upside captain in terms of differentiation.

One last note here is the duplication counts are strikingly low, which is to be expected with two good teams and softer pricing. There are a million ways to go with your lineups on this slate, so people will be getting different without trying. You can do the same and mostly not worry about duplications outside of the instance of entering a cash lineup or something.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This should be a fantastic game with upside all across the field. While the optimizations lean towards the Dolphins side, there might be more edge in stacking up the Chargers. Because of the lower ownership on guys like Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer, you can make some easily unique builds while pulling in main Dolphins players. Something like a 4-2 with Mike Williams captain and Jaylen Waddle in the FLEX is a great way to capture a lot of upside in a more unique way.

Based on optimizations, Tua is the captain with a Austin Ekeler fade. Utilizing the Chargers DST as a value piece along with Jaylen Waddle look like the best ways to gain relative value. Overall, build what you want for this one and enjoy what should be an awesome ride.

Good luck and bink a unique!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

• If my momma ever did one thing right with me, it was teach me not to play a DST in showdown when it has a chance at 50%+ ownership.
• There are some interesting options when it comes to avoiding high duplications, and Ben Skowronek is one of the ones with the best floor/ceiling.
• You don’t have to get weird tonight to be different, you just have to come to the realization that the Raiders aren’t very good and grab more Rams.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

There’s a handful of players on the slate that are gaining too much traction, but the most overvalued option is the Raiders DST. They project for 8.5% ownership in the captain slot and end up there 0% of the time in the optimizations. Likewise, they project at 37% ownership at FLEX and show up with just 4% exposure in the optimizations. Granted, there’s lots of reasons to like the Raiders D tonight, but it’s gone overboard. They make for a terrific fade in tournaments.

On the other hand the most undervalued play is John Wolford. His exposure in the optimizations at captain are around 7% while his projected ownership there is just 2%. There’s an even larger difference at flex, with his exposures sitting at 43% and his projected ownership only 18%. I’ve mentioned it in this article before, but anytime you can get a QB at low ownership in showdown it’s a good idea to do so. Especially if they have rushing upside like Wolford.

A couple other notes:

• Both TEs look to be pretty overvalued from their upside.
• The Rams DST looks like a better play than the Raiders at about 4x less ownership
• There are a handful of super cheap punt options that are all viable but have an equally low chance of working out.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The highest owned captain tonight is Davante Adams, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. After him, it’s Josh Jacobs, which should also come at not much of a surprise! After that things are spread out quite a bit. Worth noting the lack of Raiders DST here, which is interesting. If you are going to play them, playing them at captain makes the most sense based on the differentiation. Other interesting players missing from captain here: John Wolford, Tyler Higbee, Ben Skowronek.

FLEX options here are well spread, but have an emphasis on Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and Daniel carlson. All three of those players show up in 70%+ of the lineups predicted to be duplicated at the highest rate. Once again, we have a lack of Ben Skowronek here, which makes him a solid option in GPPs. Should the Rams make this competitive, he could garner a pretty great targetshare.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

Slates like this are awesome for contrarian players because you don’t even have to try. Likely 60%+ of the field will be playing two or less Rams options in their lineups, and there will be a QB under 30% owned. The Raiders DST is conservatively projected at 35% owned and could hit in the 50%+ range. This is a perfect opportunity to think to yourself, “Man, the Raiders kind of suck, let’s just hope they suck more than anticipated and stack the Rams”. If you wanted to be a real asshole about it, you could go Cam Akers captain with the Rams DST and play for a handed Rams stomp. The contrarian options are hilarious and endless!

Based on optimizations, You likely don’t want to go with a Rams stomp, but utilizing John Wolford in your Davante Adams captain lineups is a fruitful way to build. Ben Skowronek is pretty undervalued as well, so plug him in for the added differentiation. The big fades here are the Raiders DST and the TEs for both teams.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Raiders DST
• Both TEs
• Cam Akers

Some players that look undervalued:

• John Wolford
• Rams DST
• Ben Skowronek

Good luck and bink a unique!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

• Tony Pollard still shares work with Zeke but appears to be well undervalued for his efficiency and upside.
• Lots of people look to be using kickers as captains, but there are strong upside plays that are affordable like Parris Campbell instead.
• You don’t have to be super different tonight thanks to a highly owned combo, but you do need to think about if you are buying or fading Jonathan Taylor.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

The most overvalued player on the slate looks like Jonathan Taylor, which is a bit shocking. His exposures at captain are just 4.5%, while he is projected to be around 14% owned there. Likewise, in terms of FLEX, his exposures are at 34% while his ownership projection is 47%. The colts have been underperforming in general and haven’t been able to put Taylor in position to find his upside in the redzone. He looks like a strong fade at captain and a good fade overall.

The most undervalued play looks like Tony Pollard. His exposures at captain are a healthy 20% while they are near 57% in the FLEX slot. His projected ownerships for both are at 9% and 38% respectively. There is certainly risk here, as you know the split the Cowboys will go with. But the models have favored Pollard for his efficiency and if he starts getting the bulk of the work you want to be ahead of the curve.

One last note is how undervalued Parris Campbell appears to be. His captain exposures are surprisingly high for a WR2 and could make for a great option in large field GPPs thanks to an unappreciated ceiling.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

There are a lot of kicker captains here, which makes sense but doesn’t seem necessary. They are used to afford some general combos of Dak, Lamb, and Taylor but there are values on this slate that are strong enough to supplant the kickers. Likewise, the projections on the top guys aren’t so strong that giving up on upside at captain is smart just to jam them in. Overall, it looks like paying down at captain on this slate has some obvious opportunity cost.

When we look at FLEX, it’s a lot of Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Jonathan Taylor as discussed above. Likewise, we have Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell. Interestingly we see no DSTs used here even with the Colts being a 10 point underdog. We also see hardly any Gallup or Schultz, so using them in a more Cowboys heavy build can help make you different.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This seems like a relatively easy slate to play from a theory perspective. There’s a straightforward combo that most people will have of Dak, Lamb, and Taylor along with one of the kickers. If you want to build with that combo, make sure to be different as you finish it off and avoid the more popular secondary options. The optimizations would say to avoid Taylor all together and make a more quality lineup based around just Dak and Lamb. The other option is playing for a Cowboys failure and playing a Colts stack of Ryan/Pittman/Campbell along with Lamb as the main Cowboys option. Any one of these build paths makes plenty of sense and should keep you with a low enough dupe count to make it worthwhile if it wins.

Based on optimizations, building with a Taylor fade and a priority on Parris Campbell and Tony Pollard is the way to go.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Jonathan Taylor
• Matt Ryan
• Dalton Schultz

Some players that look undervalued:

• Tony Pollard
• Parris Campbell
• Colts DST

Good luck and bink a unique!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

• Somehow Josh Allen is both the highest projected ownership and captain and yet not high enough, so it’s important to leverage that.
• Captain ownership is spread out in the highest projected duplications, but there are clear options to utilize that give you a real ceiling to build around.
• The name of the game with these teams is getting weird, so if you build a lineup that doesn’t make you feel a little gross you should start over.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

EDIT AT 7:48PM EST — JJ Taylor is inactive, so replace him with Pierre Strong in all portions of this article. they are the exact same play.

The most overvalued player on the slate tonight based on optimization exposures is Jakobi Meyers. His exposures at captain are just .42% and at FLEX they only hit 13.25%. Compare those numbers to the 6.15% and 31.38% projected ownerships and there’s a pretty glaring difference to leverage. Meyers is a solid floor play, and gets consistent volume, but his ceiling is limited. Even with Mac Jones passing well lately, he hasn’t benefited a significant amount.

The most undervalued captain today is none other than Josh Allen. Even though his captain ownership projected at 29%, it’s still a chunk below the optimization exposures of 35.44%. There’s a large portion of the captain ownership going to Rhamondre Stevenson here and while he’s a strong play, no one has the ceiling of Allen on any given slate. Especially considering there’s a wealth of values available tonight, there’s no reason to be under the field on Allen CPT.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

We have a bevy of captains used in the top most duplicated projections for tonight. Jonnu Smith, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Devin Singletary are some of the names taking up the most spots here. However, both QBs and both kickers find their way into captain spots as well. Overall this doesn’t define a clear route towards differentiation or fades of individual players. Likely, it tells us that loading up on Josh Allen captain is just the right move.

With FLEX it’s obviously a different story, as Josh Allen and Rhamondre Stevenson are in every lineup they aren’t already slotted at captain. Mac Jones is popular as well as Stefon Diggs, J.J. Taylor, and Devin Singletary making high appearances to bring up the other popular options. Taylor is a really interesting piece here, as he will likely be popular but not so much in lineups with Rhamondre. 

Some options with upside that show up little or not at all in the above lineups: Bill DST, Isaiah Mckenzie, James Cook, and Hunter Henry.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This slate will almost for sure have a unique winning lineup. That’s a good thing, because a unique bink is so much shinier of a trophy than a duped one. It also sucks, because it means some wild shit is going to win it for someone. The lesson here is if you build a lineup that you think someone else has, scrap it and start with something more bold. There are hardly any wrong answers on a slate with two spread out offenses and you’ll have much more upside off the beaten (roster construction) path.

The one thing to start with is Josh Allen captain. Mix in some Tyquan Thornton, J.J. Taylor, and Nelson Agholor and you’ll find yourself with a weird lineup you can be proud of.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Jakobi Meyers
• Isaiah McKenzie

Some players that look undervalued:

• Josh Allen (captain)
• Khalil Shakir
• Tyquan Thornton

Good luck and bink a unique!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

• People are focusing too much on the Colts passing game, which opens up Jonathan Taylor as the best captain on the slate.
• Pat Freiermuth is an awesome play, but he is a frequent captain in the highest predicted duplications, so you might not want to follow the field there.
• The Colts secondary passing options make for strong options in GPPs while you build around Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

The most overvalued player here is obviously Michael Pittman Jr. the exposures in the optimizations are a whopping 0% at captain and just 6.5% in the FLEX. Compare that to the 7.8% captain and 35.42% FLEX projected ownerships and there’s a stark disagreement from the models. This likely stems from the Colts employing a run heavy gameplan in a low scoring affair. While Pittman is certainly the WR1 on the team, that doesn’t lead to a consistent production of fantasy points.

The most undervalued player looks to be Jonathan Taylor. His captain exposures are up at 32% while his projected ownership at the slot is only 18.40%. Likewise, his FLEX exposures at 62% while his projected ownership lags behind at 54%. This is likely a consequence of Michael Pittman being higher owned than he deserves as well. Considering Taylor has the highest upside on this slate, prioritizing him is a no brainer.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The vast majority of captain ownership in the highest predicted dupes goes to Pat Freiermuth. He shows up in nearly half of the highest duplications. This is because of his low price tag and high involvement in the pass-heavy PIT offense. He allows you to fit both QBs and Jonathan Taylor in the FLEX, so it’s no wonder he will be popular. All of that said, he is a terrific option overall, so fading him in the captain isn’t necessarily the way to go.

When we look at the FLEX, we see Najee Harris in nearly every lineup. This is pretty interesting since he likely makes a better captain in a vacuum, but it does give us some insight into ways to be different. Simply swapping Najee Harris into the captain spot and fading either Pickett or Taylor gives you similar upside with a unique build path. Outside of Harris, we end up with a lot of Pickett, Taylor, and some Diontae Johnson frequent in the FLEX. Worth nothing the lack of Alex Pierce across the board here, who could make for an intriguing differentiation piece in large fields.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This is a pretty straight forward slate but with a lot of variance. The knowns here are Najee Harris and Jonathan Taylor. Najee, with no Jaylen Warren to take snaps, should have 25+ touch upside and is underpriced. Jonathan Taylor is back from injury and getting 75% of the rushing work and 12%+ of the targets. Outside of them you can start to get different in a lot of ways. While people are interested in Michael Pittman, it’s just as good to take shots on Parris Campbell and Alec Pierce. Likewise, with no Kylen Granson, Mo-Allie Cox is a great flier in large field. Focusing on the secondary receiving options for the Colts is a solid strategy.

Overall, Building with Jonathan Taylor at captain and Najee Harris in the flex feels right. Put in some secondary Colts receiving options and fade Michael Pittman and enjoy your night.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Michael Pittman
• Diontae Johnson

Some players that look undervalued:

• Jonathan Taylor (captain)
• Matthew Wright
• Alex Pierce

Good luck and bink a unique!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

• While the majority of the field will be focusing on Jalen Hurts at captain, both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are better options at the slot.
• The ownership in the highest predicted duplications is pretty spread out, but the secondary pass catchers for both teams are good differentiation points.
• While this game could be good on paper, there’s upside to playing for a low scoring brawl.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

In terms of captain exposures, there’s a clear difference between the optimizations and projected ownership. When we are looking at the Eagles, it seems that the field wants to play Jalen Hurts and the optimizations are on his pass catchers. Both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith have higher exposures in the optimizations as captain than Hurts. Brown sits at nearly 27% and Smith just above 19% with Hurts just below 14%. The projected ownership of these three is 10%, 5%, and 24%, respectively. This is a clear difference and gives a good way to start your builds.

The most overvalued player looks to be Christian Watson (again). The last Packers slate saw similar results from the optimizations, and while Christian Watson caught another touchdown, he was far from incredible. The optimizations see him 0% of the time as a captain while the field is projecting him around 5%. Likewise he is undervalued at FLEX with 8% exposure in optimizations and 29% projected ownership.

The most undervalued player is, apparently, the Packers defense! With 6% exposure in the optimizations and 52% in the FLEX, it dwarfs the projected ownership numbers of 1.67% and 16%. This likely comes from a recent push in passing attempts from the Eagles tied with lesser efficiency and no Goedert. Considering the field will be playing for a shootout here, they make for a very intriguing option.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The ownership at captain here is pretty spread out, with a good mix of kickers and receivers. All these options are popular simply to allow for Jalen Hurts in the FLEX, which makes sense on an Eagles slate. One note on here is that we don’t have a lot of AJ Brown captains in these lineups which could represent a leak by the field. Considering his optimization exposures in the section above, he makes for a terrific option at captain.

As far as FLEX, it’s all Jalen Hurts. Nearly every one of the lineups above has him in the FLEX, which is a consequence of his price and popularity. Likewise, we see plenty of Brown, Rodgers, and Lazard. Those four will make up the vast majority of popular lineups on this slate. One way to be different is to build lineups and avoid that combination. If you choose to use all of those four, you’ll have to make sure you have two really low owned pieces around them to ensure you have enough relative value.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

It’s pretty interesting that the Packers defense is popping in the optimizations so much. What that means is the simulations are ending up with plenty of sacks and lots of inefficient passing attempts from the Eagles. The field will surely be ignoring the PAckers DST and they represent an easy way to be different overall. Even if you don’t use them, playing towards a slower, drawn out game with less emphasis on the QBs could serve you well.

Overall, the optimizations are looking to focus on AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith and less on Jalen Hurts. That will make you different enough, so if you take that route build optimally around them. If you do choose to play Hurts, bringing it back with the Packers DST in the flex is an interesting and unique way to build. Either way, play for a lower scoring game.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Jalen Hurts (captain)
• Christian Watson
• Robert Tonyan

Some players that look undervalued:

• AJ Brown (captain)
• Packers DST
• Sammy Watkins

Good luck and bink a unique!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles