Tag: Showdown

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• David Montgomery looks slightly overvalued at the FLEX but well undervalued at captain, assuming ownership projections are accurate.
• The most duplicated builds will have a combo of Amon-Ra St.Brown, a QB, and David Montgomery, so look to avoid combos like that without more extreme leverage added.
• Building for a low scoring affair without QBs involved is a unique way to approach the slate, and seems like a solid path to leverage Montgomery ownership

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

The most valuable captain tonight is David Montgomery, who looks a bit undervalued by the indsutry at the position. His projected ownership at the position is around 10%, but his exposure in the contest sims is almost 16%. He offers the most positive leverage at the moment, but there’s not a lot of room for that leverage if he gets more popular up to lock.

On the other side of the table is Jared Goff, who looks to be the most overvalued captain. His exposures in contest winners is just 11% while his projected ownership is around 18%. While he is still one of the most valuable captains, there’s going to be leverage gained by avoiding him in single entry and three max contests.

FLEX ownership distributions

By far the most valuable FLEX option tonight is Amon-Ra St.Brown with an exposure – projected ownership of almost +32%. His exposure of 75% in contest winners is a step above anyone else on the slate, and gives a lot of room even if projected ownership is low on him overall. While he doesn’t make a very good captain because of price, he represents a terrific FLEX play that is likely undervalued even at high ownership.

In terms of the most negative value added, we have three players separated from the rest: AJ Dillon, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs. One obvious note is all three of these players are Packers! In fact, four of the five players offering the worst negative leverage are from Green Bay. This represents a clear path in terms of game flow and roster construction when building with leans and stacks.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• There are no free squares tonight. The most valuable player overall is Amon-Ra St.Brown, but he by no means represents a free square considering the DET touchdown distributions and possible gameflow differences
• Both DET running backs are in play here, and playing them together is an interesting large field tactic
• Both defenses and both kickers are appropriately valued

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

We see a lot of kicker captains here along with a couple Packers DST captains as well. After that, we get a handful of Laporta followed by both QBs. Interestingly enough, we don’t see much Amon-Ra St.Brown, which is mostly a function of price but does represent an interesting spot to be different.

In the FLEX there is a very clear combo to avoid: St.Brown, a QB, and David Montgomery. Both iterations of St.Brown/Love/Montgomery and St.Brown/Goff/Montgomery will be heavily owned, and if you add Josh Reynolds to that you are looking at heavy duplication. Avoiding these combos or introducing extreme leverage to them in the remaining spots is important.

In terms of unique roster paths, going with a no QB build is really interesting. Neither of these teams wants to push the pace which could easily result in a lower scoring game. The pass catchers and RBs can get there in that environment while both QBs fail to score enough in raw points to make winning lineups.

One other quick call out: I think Kalif Raymond is a really strong play tonight in GPPs. Last week he eclipsed Marvin Jones in snap count and routes and is looking well undervalued tonight based on an increasing role.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This is a great showdown slate with good pricing and a lot of interesting directions to go based on two relatively flat offenses. There are going to be a lot of people that build lineups based on median expectations that miss out on a lot of ceiling because of the way these players eat into production of one another. One spot that people will likely mess up is playing Montgomery and Goff together in GPPs, where it’s unlikely both get there based on gamescripts. The biggest edge tonight is likely choosing the correct gameflow and building towards it rather than building the highest median expectation team.

There are two feasible paths to build: A high scoring game, where DET falls behind and is forced to catch up, or a lower scoring grinder where neither team is able to capitalize quickly and trade scores up to a 21-17 win. A high scoring game likely necessitates Jordan Love and Amon-Ra St.Brown, where a low scoring game is built around David Montgomery and no QBs. My current lean is a 4-2 DET build for a low scoring gamescript, but I think a 3-3 with both QBs is great too.

Some players that look overvalued:

• AJ Dillon
• Jared Goff (CPT)
• Christian Watson (FLEX)

Some players that look undervalued:

• David Montgomery (CPT)
• Amon-Ra St.Brown (FLEX)
• Kalif Raymond (Loins play)

Good luck and bink a unique

---

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Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• Najee Harris sucks but he also does not quite suck as bad as the field thinks, so he makes a worthwhile captain
• The defenses and kickers look like they will lead to high dupe counts, so try to avoid using multiple of them in your GPP builds
• This is one of the most wide open showdowns we have had, if you don’t feel comfortable with your lineup you are on the right track

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

I will be very clear: I am unhappy about these results. Najee Harris sucks. I do not want to use him. But he does offer the most leverage at captain based on the difference in exposure and projected ownership at the position. It’s just all very disappointing. On the other side, Jimmy Garoppolo offers the most negative leverage as a CPT on this slate. His projected ownership at the slot is almost 19% while his exposure there is just 11%.

FLEX ownership distributions

The highest leverage offered in the FLEX spot goes to Jakobi Meyers, followed by Josh Jacobs. Both project for modest ownership in this slot and have high exposure rates. Meyers specifically has some great expected fantasy point metrics and Josh Jacobs has one of the best roles of any RB in fantasy, so this isn’t really surprising. Meanwhile, Pat Friermuth and both defensives offer the most negative leverage. Once again, this is disappointing, as it means we should be playing for a relatively high scoring affair between these two wet towel teams.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• There are no free squares tonight, in fact this is one of the more wide open slates we have seen so far this year
• There’s some interesting ways to build using both PIT running backs considering Kenny Pickett throws like an overweight 6^th grader
• Both kickers offer some slight leverage overall, making them more valuable than either DST

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The vast majority of lineups with a high dupe chance are going to be Davante Adams, one of the kickers, or the fucking DST. This may end up being the fishiest showdown slate of all time if a heavily duped lineup ends up winning.  The most dupe-prone combo is going to be a FLEX trio of Adams, Garoppolo, and Pickett with Josh Jacobs a premier piece as well. I think the biggest edge for this showdown is just to play a lineup that wins when these teams actually score points. Most people will be building with the kickers and DST and probably Josh Jacobs, so playing things that neutralize DST and Kickers gives the most leverage.

That said, Maybe the best way to beat the field is by using no RBs at all? Look to these teams to score points through the air and maximize your correlation to the points scored. Josh Jacobs with Jimmy G might be an exception here, but using either of Warren or Najee with Pickett is likely wasted EV.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This is actually a really tough showdown once you get into the ways to beat the field. There are some gross ways, like Najee Harris captain, that let you pass the field with a more common win condition while getting direct leverage over more popular pieces. On the other hand, there are ways that feel less gross, like stacking the passing game, but go against what these teams are most likely to do. Both options are valid in terms of showdown, and there are no great answers in terms of maintaining upside while building apart from the field.

As of now, I see two main paths that I am likely to follow: Najee Harris captain with a Pickett fade, leaning towards a 4-2 PIT stack, or a 3-3 gamestack with a 4-2 LV lean since I think their offense is more condensed. Either way it’s hard to feel great about building either. Very fun!

Some players that look overvalued:

• Defenses and Kickers
• Jimmy G (Cpt)
• Pat Freiermuth

Some players that look undervalued:

• Passing stacks
• Najee Harris (CPT)
• Josh Jacobs

Good luck and bink a unique

---

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• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• The biggest point of leverage tonight is Ray-Ray the Bay=Bay over Ronnie “Rookie” Bell in GPPs
• Try to avoid using the combo of CMC, Jones, Deebo, and Purdy
• Get ready to tilt some weird touchdowns between two teams that have a lot of depth and few bellcows

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

The best edge offered at CPT in the contest simulations is George Kittle, who is projected at just 5% captain ownership but has an 11% exposure rate in optimals. This number may close up with the news on Brandon Aiyuk being out, but it’s unlikely Kittle is higher than 10% owned at this slot. The biggest negative leverage goes to Brock Purdy at -6.45% leverage gained here. His optimality rate is still okay at 12.20% but he is being overvalued with a projected ownership at captain of 18.65%. This is a situation where you’ll want to rerun the contest sims closer to lock after final updates to make sure the ownerships here haven’t shifted considerably after the Aiyuk news.

FLEX ownership distributions

Christian McCaffrey offers the most edge at FLEX, with an optimal exposure rate of 81.70% against a projected FLEX ownership of around 56%. The key takeaway with McCaffrey is that he makes for a better FLEX than CPT, but he’s going to be in your lineup either way. The largest negative edge found is on Parris Campbell at -5%, but there are a handful of options in that range. The one that probably matters the most is the 49ers DST, which has a projected ownership of 12.70% and is probably projected too low, which makes them conservatively overvalued and possible the worst play on the slate.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• Free square is Christian McCaffrey. Don’t need to overthink it outside of the largest field GPPs, where you could fade for Elijah Mitchell if you felt inclined.
• Ronnie Bell is already creeping up in ownership, but people are ignoring Ray-Ray McCloud III at the same price point in the same situation. He makes for a fantastic large field GPP pivot.
• There’s not enough ownership on either kicker in the FLEX, which usually means the public is stacking for a higher scoring game.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The lineups most likely to be duped are utilizing a mid-priced captain along with a clear 4-man combo: McCaffrey, Daniel Jones, Deebo Samuel, and Brock Purdy. There’s enough value on the slate that you can fit all the studs together, so the easiest way to reduce duplication is simply avoid the full combo. The most high leverage way of doing this is to avoid Brock Purdy, who is an overvalued play at FLEX based on the contest sims. You could also use a Giants player in the captain, as the vast majority of the captains in high probability dupes are 49ers players.

The two most realistic ways to avoid duplication and have a strong ROI tonight are: Play towards a Giants victory with a 4-2 NYG lean or avoid Brock Purdy and/or Deebo Samuel. An interesting way to play the slate is with George Kittle captain and Christian McCaffrey in the FLEX with strong NYG options ins an offset 2-4.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

I’m interested to see what happens with the Ronnie Bell situation. He filled in last week with no Aiyuk and had 18% of the snaps ran but had no targets and is a late round rookie. Meanwhile McCloud had a targets per route run of around 13% (moderate) in 2022 and could feasibly see as many snaps as Ronnie Bell. There seems to be a considerably strong opportunity to pivot off the Ronnie Bell chalk and get massive leverage in GPPs in a really simple way. That said, both of them could suck, we could get nothing for the pivot, and have Arbys on speed dial.

Regardless, there’s a lot of value to be had on this slate in terms of both roster construction differences as well as value choices. Even with an 85% owned CMC to be had you’ll be able to fill in the blanks with a lot of unique directions. So long as you don’t play the super obvious 4-man combo of CMC, Jones, Deebo, and Purdy you can build a lot of strong lineups a lot of different ways.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Ronnie Bell (probably)
• Brock Purdy (CPT)
• 49ers DST

Some players that look undervalued:

• George Kittle (CPT)
• Ray-Ray McCloud III
• Giants 4-2 builds

Good luck and bink a unique

---

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• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• The captain offering the most leverage is DeVante Parker, while the most leverage offered on the slate is Tyreek in the FLEX
• Building with a lean towards the Patriots is a straightforward way to use Tyreek in more unique ways
• Avoiding the combo of Tua, Rhamondre, and Tyreek in the FLEX will help considerably with your dupe management

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

The highest exposures in the contest simulations go to Rhamondre Stevenson and Mac Jones, but the highest leverage belongs to DeVante Parker. His exposure of 10% is considerably higher than his projected captain ownership of under 2%. This makes him a premium captain option on a slate that should have very condensed ownership at the high price points. On the other side of this table is Tyreek Hill, who has the worst leverage offered at captain with a -7% rate of exposures minus projected ownership.

FLEX ownership distributions

Where Tyreek lacks at captain leverage, he makes up for greatly at FLEX leverage. He offers by far the most leverage on the slate at a 30% mark here, as the field is overvaluing his captain value and undervaluing his FLEX usage. Rhamondre Stevenson comes in second in terms of leverage gained with an exposure minus projected ownership of just under 20%. The largest negative leverage offered at FLEX is Kendrick Bourne, making him a worthwhile fade in GPPs.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• There’s not really a free square on this slate, but Tyreek Hill is pretty close. He should be locked into the majority of your lineups at FLEX.
• As we typically see with top heavy showdown slates, lots of cheap players project as underowned, so leaning into the uncertainty to take advantage of the studs works here.

The Patriots defense appears appropriately valued, but the Dolphins defense is overvalued. It sets up well for a Patriots 4-2 lean.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The lineups with some of the highest projected ownership follow the typical pattern of a top heavy showdown: cheap captains and jamming in the studs. We see a handful of kicker captains with Jason Sanders, along with some Mac Jones and DeVante Parker. In the FLEX, we see three main pieces: Tua, Tyreek, and Rhamondre Stevenson. This offers multiple interesting leverage points in GPPs, as avoiding that 3-man combo is going to help your dupe count immensely. Going with Jaylen Waddle instead of Tyreek or Tua, for instance, is a way to manage duplications while maintaining solid upside.

Especially considering the opportunity cost of using Tua and Tyreek together, it makes a lot of sense to fade Tua for Waddle and hope for a Patriots gamescript that controls the ball and limits upside.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This game has kind of an odd vibe. The Dolphins are a high octane offense, but they have a very clear gameplan, which Bellichick has made a career of shutting down. On the other side, the Patriots are a team without a true identity early in the season, and the Dolphins defense looked good in week one against a better Chargers offense. My guess is that people just put all their eggs in the Tua/Tyreek basket and largely ignore Waddle and Mostert as viable upside options.

A build focused on the Dolphins win through the run game and a fade of Tua is one of my favorite ways to attack. The other more obvious route is a shootout that leans 4-2 towards the Patriots with Devante Parker at captain.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Kendrick Bourne
• Tyreek Hill (captain)
• Dolphins DST

Some players that look undervalued:

• DeVante Parker (CPT)
• Jaylen Waddle
• Patriots stacks

Good luck and bink a unique

---

Powerful tools for every sport

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• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• The best captain on the slate is Kirk Cousins, and the best FLEX is Justin Jefferson, making for a clear path in roster construction
• The most overowned combination will be Hurts, Brown, and Jefferson, so playing just 2/3 of them helps lower uniques
• Playing for a PHI loss and MIN win gamescript is probably best in large field GPPs

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

Captain exposures for tonight are valued appropriately based on the projected ownership. The best leverage we gain on the field is on Kirk Cousins at captain, with his exposures in the contest winners at 21.10% and his projected ownership at captain 17.92%. On the other end of the spectrum is A.J. Brown, who projects for 9.85% ownership at the position with just 5.50% exposure. Your money will likely not be made with who you choose at captain tonight!

FLEX ownership distributions

When we look at FLEX exposures, we have a couple very strong options in terms of leverage and only a couple negative values. The best leverage on the slate goes to Justin Jefferson with an exposure of 70% in the winners and projected at just 37% ownership. This gives a lot of room if the projected ownership is low on him to still offer positive leverage. The other big value in terms of leverage gained is on Jalen Hurts. His FLEX exposures are 79% while his projected ownership there is just 59%.

Granted, Both of these players will be highly owned, but a lot of people will be looking to use them at captain. Using both in the FLEX offers an interesting angle to the slate.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• The free square today is going to be Jalen Hurts, you are just playing him and moving along
• Devonta Smith is the largest negative leverage at FLEX, followed by lots of PHI players, which speaks to them being the overvalued stack
• Both defenses are appropriately owned based on projection, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Eagles DST come in around 15-20% based on recency bias

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The highest owned lineups tonight are mostly cheap players at captain while jamming in all of the expensive options in the FLEX. Rashaad Penny, who is starting, will likely demand a lot of ownership across the board. Jalen Hurts, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, and DeVona Smith are all exceptionally popular in the highest projected ownership lineups, so avoiding that combination will help lower dupes. One other big observation is the lack of Kirk Cousins, who looks like one of the best differentiation points on the slate.

One thing we don’t see any of is Alexander Mattison captain, which could be fruitful considering his CPT leverage is neutral and his expected fantasy points last week were respectable regardless of lackluster results.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

The assumption in this game is going to be that the Eagles DST gets to Cousins early and often thus lowering his potential. Likewise, people think that primetime Kirk Cousins sucks, so they will naturally be lower on him than he deserves. A full out MIN 5-1 combo seems like it would make a lot of sense here, considering PHI players grade out as overvalued and Cousins looks like the most undervalued captain.

If you do choose to go with a PHI 4-2 or 5-1, look to be different with Quez Watkins or using multiple running backs. That side will be more popular than the MIN side, so you have to think a little harder about how to lower dupes.

Some players that look overvalued:

• A.J. Brown
• Eagles DST (Assuming higher ownership than projected)
• Rashaad Penny

Some players that look undervalued:

• Kirk Cousins (both CPT and FLEX)
• Justin Jefferson (FLEX)
• Alexander Mattison (CPT)

Good luck and bink a unique!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• Aaron Rodgers is about to be real bummed about switching conferences
• Stefon Diggs is going to be undervalued tonight as a FLEX option, you should take advantage
• Avoid general combos with Deonte Harty if you play him, or just fade all together, but he’s the biggest decision you’ll make

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

Captain exposures and ownerships are very efficient tonight, with no one better or worse than 6% off the projected ownership in terms of exposures. Greg Zuerlein (NYJ kicker) and Stefon Diggs both offer the most positive leverage at captain, with their edge gained being 5.50% and 4.77% respectively. On the other hand, Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers offer the least leverage at -6.62% and -4.84% even at relatively high exposures.

FLEX ownership distributions

Turning to the FLEX view, we see a lot of the same, but with a clear value on the field. Stefon Diggs is projecting for modest ownership tonight at 33% in the FLEX, but the exposures have him at nearly 59%. He has a wild 25% edge here. Even if ownership projections are low, it's unlikely he ends up 60% here and should be a priority in the FLEX. Towards the bottom we have a very popular play in Deonte Harty, who offers incredible value but appears to be overvalued even farther.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• The free square today is going to be Josh Allen, even if he offers a touch of negative value overall
• Deonte Harty being overvalued in interesting and will offer a large amount of leverage to those who avoid him though both direct and indirect leverage
• Both kickers offer good positive leverage based on their exposures, so plugging them in with negative leverage counterparts can help even things out

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Of a sampling of the highest owned optimals for tonight, there are four players in every single lineup: Josh Allen, Stefon diggs, Garrett Wilson, and Deonte Harty. You do get some Aaron Rodgers, but he appears to be the “odd stud out”. Based on the exposures and leverage tables above, it would make the most sense to get away from Harty tonight. It will help you manage duplicates without much opportunity cost.

So long as you avoid that combo of players though, you'll be looking good in terms of dupe counts. Likewise, using Diggs at captain is a high upside route towards lower dupes.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

You should mostly just continue to be worried about usage and biases. The biggest piece to this showdown is what to do with Deonte Harty. You can play him in unique ways, like playing him at captain or playing him without Josh Allen, but he doesn’t project as a super valuable piece in the contest sims and the opportunity cost is high. My lean is fading, but you gotta do what you gotta do, boo boo.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Deonte Harty
• Josh Allen (but like, you should play him)
• Aaron Rodgers

Some players that look undervalued:

• Stefon Diggs (FLEX)
• Greg Zuerlein (CPT)
• Allen Lazard (CPT)

Good luck and bink a unique!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• Spread out exposure gives a lot of variability for cheap options
• Secondary DAL options look overvalued, opening the door for 5-1 NYG builds
• Dupes should be relatively low tonight outside of the cavemen playing the optimal in GPPs

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

There are a lot of players mostly valued correctly at captain tonight and there there is Daniel Jones, who looks considerably undervalued. His exposure in the contest simulation winners is 22% while his projected ownership is just 12.37%, by far the widest margin on the board. When it comes to negative differentials, the largest is Michael Gallup at -4.64% overvalued. Gallup, Cooks, and Waller all look like captains that are better off avoided.

FLEX ownership distributions

When we take a look at the FLEX distributions, it's the other QB (Prescott) who ends up with the most positive leverage. He projects at 47% owned as a FLEX play and his exposure in sim winners is 67%, a clean 20% edge offered. Graham Gano and interestingly enough Gary Brightwell look to off quite a bit of edge as FLEX options as well. Michael Gallup is the largest negative value here, showing that he is overvalued as a whole tonight.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• On Thursday we had a free square with Patrick Mahomes, but we don't have that luxury tonight as the highest exposure player is Dak Prescott at just 79% in CPT+FLEX
• All of the cheap options are undervalued, which speaks to the uncertainty of this game based on projections around the industry, and opens up a lot of optionality.
• More of the DAL players are overvalued than NYG, which could lead to some NYG/DAL 5-1 builds to be unique

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Of a sampling of the highest owned optimals for tonight, Graham Gano captain takes up a handful of slots mixed with guys like Vaughn, Aubrey, and Brightwell. People will likely be mix and matching a lot of different combos tonight because of the said uncertainty up above. That means you won't have to worry as much about duping so long as you aren't just playing the optimal like a mouth breather.

All this considered, party hard and do your thing.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

We lost all our money on the main slate, so now it's time to make it all back on a super variant showdown slate. No excuses, play like a god.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Michael Gallup
• Darren Waller
• Jake Freguson

Some players that look undervalued:

• Daniel Jones (CPT)
• Dak Prescott (FLEX)
• Gary Brightwell

Good luck and bink a unique!

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Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• The biggest situation today is avoiding Noah Gray ownership and using the Patrick Mahomes free square
• The highest projected ownership on contest sims comes from cheap captains and a combo of Mahomes/Goff/Amon-Ra in the FLEX, so avoid that combo to lower duplications
• FOOTBALLLLLLLLLLLLLL

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

When it comes to Captain ownerships, there are a couple spots worth avoiding to find leverage. The largest negative leverage goes to Noah Gray, who projects for around 9% ownership at captain and is only in the winning lineups .30% of the time. Kadarius Toney and Isiah Pacheco are both negative values as well. The highest positive leverage belongs to Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has a projected ownership at CPT of 12.33% and an exposure in the contest sims of 19.60%.

FLEX ownership distributions

As far as FLEX ownership and exposure goes, the biggest edge again belongs to Amon-Ra St. Brown, with the largest negative leverage belonging to Noah gray. In fact, simply fading Noah gray in most formats is going to be enough to give you the leverage necessary to build freely.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• It's worth noting that Patrick Mahomes has a combined exposure of 99.80% in the simulations, meaning he is essentially a free square outside of injury.
• Defenses are almost perfectly valued, with both within around 1% of the projected ownership in terms of exposure, so there's not much value in predicting a low scoring game.
• While you can gain a lot of leverage with the expensive players, you can also gain a lot of value on Skyy Moore who is looking well undervalued across the industry.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Surprisingly, we don't see as many highly projected ownerships on Patrick Mahomes captain lineups. Instead, we see a lot of the cheaper position players at captain with combos of Mahomes/Goff/ARSB in the flex. It's worth noting that there are no DST lineups showing up in the highly projected ownership lineups, and minimal kickers involved. Likewise, outside of ARSB and LaPorta, we see very few DET wideouts involved.

All this considered, there are two main routes to avoiding duplications tonight:

• Avoid the combination of Mahomes/Goff/Amon-Ra in the FLEX
• Include kickers, DST, or secondary DET wideouts

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

NFL SEASON IS BACK BABYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

Some players that look overvalued:

• Noah Gray
• Isiah Pacheco
• Jahmyr Gibbs

Some players that look undervalued:

• Skyy Moore
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling (CPT)
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (CPT)

Good luck and bink a unique!

---

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• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
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• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

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Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

• The name of the game today is fitting Mahomes and Hurts, and doing so while remaining competitive in the GPP without being duped is exceptionally difficult.
• The highest projected dupes completely lack both defenses, which makes them prime options in terms of building natural diversification.
• Enjoy the Superbowl and I hope to see you all next year at Paydirt!

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

The slate entirely comes down to building around Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. However, the optimizations much prefer Hurts thanks to a considerably higher median projection and rushing upside. Hurts has a CPT% in the optimizations of 48% while Mahomes is at just 2.78%. The projected ownership for both is around even at 13%, which says that Hurts is considerably undervalued even with the highest projected captain ownership on the slate. This feels akin to Josh Allen or Christian McCaffrey showdowns, where the field isn’t playing them enough even as the highest owned player overall.

The most overvalued player tonight is likely Travis Kelce. His projected ownership at captain is 10.71% while the optimizations only have him in the slot 2.41% of the time. Likewise in terms of FLEX his projected ownership sits at around 43% while his optimization exposure is only 28.76%. This isn’t necessarily a consequence of Kelce being a bad play, it’s more a consequence of his price. The optimizations prefer using only two studs, and Kelce ends up being left out of lineups because of it.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• AJ Brown looks way undervalued at both CPT and FLEX and is the second highest priority on the slate outside of Jalen Hurts, which creates a natural pairing.
• While Travis Kelce is overvalued, Juju Smith-Schuster looks undervalued especially at the FLEX spot.
• Both Kickers are well undervalued as salary saving options.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Nearly every one of the highest projected dupes is using Jalen Hurts, but that is to be expected. Outside of him, Patrick Mahomes and AJ Brown are highly exposed options as well.Interestingly, Miles Sanders is not seen here at all, and neither is the Eagles DST. That pairing may provide extreme leverage in large field contests while people assume the game to be high scoring. Likewise, the pairing of Isiah Pacheco and the Chiefs DST makes a lot of sense for Chiefs onslaughts as well.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

I wrote this during the CIN/BUF game, and it holds true tonight:

“It is going to be very, very hard to win the main GPP tonight on Draftkings with the size of the contest and generally condensed offenses. People are going to build out weird lineups with bad plays just to be unique, and I think that’s mostly a mistake. While you should certainly be off the board, I think it’s much better to be off the board in a way that maintains upside rather than throwing darts. 

Be different with roster construction and captain usage instead of playing someone like Royce Gilliam or whoever the fuck is going to get touted as a sneaky value option. Use defenses and kickers in weird ways. Fade Joe Burrow. Run a 5-1 BUF onslaught. But build something that isn’t unique in a bad way.”

The size of the contests tonight makes it hard to be unique, but that doesn’t mean you should throw optimal game theory out the window and just play fuck-all plays. The name of the game here is being thoughtful with your leverage and creating a lot of direct routes towards passing the field. For instance, playing Noah Gray in a lineup with the salary for Travis Kelce. Or playing Miles Sanders in a lineup that could have Jalen Hurts. Look for ways to build in a way that benefits while the field fails.

Overall, the optimizations have a clear taste for Hurts over Mahomes tonight, and they prefer the Eagles in general. Utilizing the combo of Hurts and AJ Brown instead of that of Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Utilizing RB/DST correlations and making onslaught lineups while the field plays for a competitive high scoring affair is a strong route as well. Finally, the main player that looks like a strong piece of a KC stack in place of Travis Kelce is Juju Smith-Schuster.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Travis Kelce
• Jerrick McKinnon
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Some players that look undervalued:

• Juju Smith-Schuster
• Jalen Hurts (CPT)
• Harrison Butker (FLEX)

Good luck and bink a unique!

---

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Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

• You will likely have to fade one of the QBs tonight in large fields, and it’s Burrow that gets voted off the island.
• Highest duplications are likely to be built around Isaiah McKenzie, but adding Gabe Davis can remedy that.
• Don’t build bad lineups, focus on being different through roster construction rather than bad players.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

This slate, like most with the Bills, hinges on Josh Allen at captain. His projections in both the median and ceiling thresholds are just so much higher than the others available. Because of this, he makes for an undervalued captain and overvalued FLEX. Indeed, he will end up around 95% owned tonight across all slots and positions.

The most overvalued player tonight is looking like Joe Burrow. His captain exposures in the optimizations are just 3.81% against a projected ownership of 12.39%. While Burrow has an exceptional ceiling, it just doesn’t compare to that of Allen or even Ja’Marr Chase when taking price into consideration. Overall, you will likely have to make a choice to fade one of the QBs, and Burrow is the obvious odd man out.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• Both James Cook and Semaj Perine appear in no optimizations as captain, but Perine looks like an appropriately valued FLEX option.
• Tyler Boyd is well overvalued in both CPT and FLEX slots.
• Isaiah McKenzie is probably the best cheap option at FLEX, and looks well undervalued overall.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The vast majority of highly duplicated lineups look to have Isaiah McKenzie at captain. This is because of a modest price and his relatively high ceiling in the Bills offense. Indeed, 8 of the lineups you see above have him in the CPT slot. Joining him at captain here are both QBs, Ja’Marr Chase, and Joe Mixon. It’s worth noting that neither of Diggs or Davis end up in the highest dupes, which might be a nice place to get a bit different.

The main note on FLEX options above is that Gabe Davis is not used at all. With him being void of both captain and FLEX exposure in the high dupes, he makes for an obvious priority in larger field GPPs to induce differentiation. The only other note on dupes is that neither defense is used, which is a typical leak by the field in perceived shootouts.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

It is going to be very, very hard to win the main GPP tonight on Draftkings with the size of the contest and generally condensed offenses. People are going to build out weird lineups with bad plays just to be unique, and I think that’s mostly a mistake. While you should certainly be off the board, I think it’s much better to be off the board in a way that maintains upside rather than throwing darts. 

Be different with roster construction and captain usage instead of playing someone like Royce Gilliam or whoever the fuck is going to get touted as a sneaky value option. Use defenses and kickers in weird ways. Fade Joe Burrow. Run a 5-1 BUF onslaught. But build something that isn’t unique in a bad way.

Based on the optimizations, the main priorities tonight are Josh Allen CPT and Gabe Davis. Likewise, avoiding Joe Burrow is basically a must in the large field GPPs if you want to avoid heavily duplicated action. Finally, having the Bengals DST and hoping for some Josh Allen whoopsies is probably the best large field play you can make while being realistic.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Joe Burrow
• James Cook
• Tyler Boyd

Some players that look undervalued:

• Josh Allen (CPT)
• Gabe Davis
• Isaiah McKenzie

Good luck and bink a unique!

---

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

• Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
• Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
• Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
• Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles