Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
What is True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. It is utilized for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess a pitchers realistic outcomes.
Model Results
The pitcher with the highest True AVG as well as the one with the largest negative deviations: Reid Detmers. His current batting average allowed is just .152, but his True AVG is a paltry .323. That's a difference of .171 points! He's facing the Yankees who are able to punish pitchers and should be avoided at all costs.
Next we have the pitcher with the lowest True AVG and the highest positive deviations, Konnor Pilkington. His True AVG is only .162 though his sample is admittedly pretty small. That said, he faces a weak Royals team and has a terrific strikeout rate (11.25 K/9). He plenty of upside should that regression from his current baselines take place.
Some other notes:
- Kyle Bradish continues to rate well in the MLB projections and models on the site, though it is yet to come to fruitition in solid starts
- Michael Kopech has been very lucky and is facing a Blue Jays squad with significant power who can make him pay
- Bailey Ober is another upside arm with a high strikeout rate and lots of positive outcomes ahead should his stats regress as expected and he gets the lowly Tigers in his start today