Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers.
Model Results
MLB True AVG notable results
The pitcher with the highest True AVG as well as the one with the largest negative deviations: Reid Detmers. However, I already mentioned him yesterday, so that's not news. Instead we will mention Taylor Hearn as the pitcher with the highest True AVG at .287. He's facing the Rays who only have an 83 wRC+ over the recent sample though, so he doesn't seem exploitable. However he is still an avoid if you were considering any of his overs.
Next we have the pitcher with the lowest True AVG and the highest positive deviations, Alex Wood! His True AVG sits at .207 and has respectable strikeout numbers (9+ K/9). He's set to face the Marlins today who are coming home from a road trip to Coors, which is a big change. They also have the highest strikeout rate against LHP in the league at 29%. Wood is a prime target for DFS and strikeout props today.
Significant deviations to consider
- Tony Gonsolin is the pitcher with the highest negative deviation from performance to True AVG, making him very risky especially against a hot Mets squad.
- Other large negative deviations to avoid: Nestor Cortes and Sandy Alcantara, who face the Angels and the Giants, respectively.