Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers.
Model Results
MLB True AVG notable results
The pitcher with the highest True AVG today is Bruce Zimmermann. If you caught my thread this morning on important stats for the MLB action, you'll notice he was included in the home run regression piece. Now, while it's true that he has been unlucky with home runs, that doesn't mean he doesn't suck. His True AVG is one of the highest in the league at .345 and he's always in play as a target in DFS.
On the flip side, the pitcher with the lowest True AVG is Alex Cobb. Cobb has been terrific with his strikeout and walk rates, but has been super unlucky with BABIP. Because of this, the models are going to love him. His strikeout rate of nearly 29% will unlock fantastic upside when he regresses the luck stats. He's facing a strong Marlins team with a 124 wRC+ against RHP in the recent sample, but that lowers his floor, not his ceiling.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest negative deviations belong to Elvin Rodriguez. He is facing the Yankees, who have been strong against RHP and can easily take advantage of this matchup.
- The largest positive deviations belong to Jose Urquidy. Frankly, he hasn't been great, but he has been considerably better than a .345 average allowed. Look to use him against a mediocre Royals team.