Weekly, we’ll take a look at the top game environments and what you need to target to chase ceiling fantasy outcomes. We’ll also go over where we think games may fail. In addition the game environments, I’ll also list top stacks and a DK core (usually 4-5 players) where you can start your builds this week!
In tandem with these thoughts, make sure to check out our range of outcome models for projections and ownership – Paydirt NFL Range of Outcomes
Being that there is only 6 games, we will break down all 6 environments and see how we can build around them. I will also try to give some leverage points that can be used on the full 6 game slate or individual slates each day –
- CAR/LA
- Rams offense is finally back at full strength and they are massive 10 point road favorites here over the Panthers.
- The thing that keeps throwing me for a loop when thinking through this game is how everyone is assuming that the Rams will just roll here. Panthers aren’t a great team but they aren’t some pushover defense like they used to be. Both of these teams felt like they were trending in the wrong direction the last few weeks. Ultimately, LAR is the better team but CAR will score points.
- Ultimately, I believe you will get an insane amount of leverage here by simply playing into the Carolina side here. For the two-game slate on Saturday, there will only be considerable ownership on Tet McMillan and Rico Dowdle. The scheme the Rams run on defense gives me a bit more confidence that CAR can find success through the air here. Also, the Rams have sneakily horrendous against the run the past 5 games (giving up 5.6 YPC).
- On the Rams side, obviously any of the big name guys can be in consideration. Will never tell you not to play Puka, Davante Adams (at a depressed tag), or Kyren Wililams. There is one thing that does give me pause and it’s that now they have many different ways to score points. Outside of Puka, I think it’s a bit more murky to predict who they will score points through. I do think there’s an opportunity to
- Leverage points: It might not feel great to click them but for DFS purposes you should absolutely consider Carolina pieces if you’re playing for first place on the 2 gamer. 6 game slate, I can see if you don’t want try to go here but honestly, there is NOTHING redeeming about this LAR defense. I think CAR will find a way to score points. Every sharp will tell you the bet the Rams today and while this is a DFS article and not betting focused, I think CAR makes this more competitive than people think. Leaning into stacks is sharp here and CAR might be able to run the pill here.
- If you’re of the opinion that the Rams do in fact role. I would suggest picking an alternate route of points such as fading Puka for Adams, pairing Stafford with two TEs, playing Corum over Kyren, or possibly both RBs…
- CHI/GB
- If the weather cooperates here I think this a game where you can see points from both sides. There are reports of heavy wind in the area so I would be wary of that but it’s hard to deny that both teams have paths to lighting up the scoreboard.
- Starting with CHI, their offense has been playing better as of late and outside of a somewhat meaningless W18 peformance against DET, this offense has been good and have put up 20+ points in two meetings against this Packers team. They also get Rome Odunze back here off an extended absence. He brings an entirely different downfield element to their offense that they didn’t have prior. And this is a team that already has a propensity to set up deep play actions. This could ultimately make them more efficient and it couldn’t come at a better time as GB’s defense has been reeling.
- Think this is a spot where the running game can succeed along with the intermediate passing game. Odunze can absolutely pop but GB has been solid and limiting the deep ball.
- From the GB side, these price tags are just way too cheap on all these receivers. Josh Jacobs is way too cheap too at $6,300. This Bears defense has been playing better but is still below average and they play a TON of man-to-man coverage.
- Watson, Reed, Doubs, all are in great spots here. As is Jacobs at this price tag. Tough not to invest into this GB offense here.
- Leverage points: Think the way you leverage this situation is to overstack either side of this game.. The best pieces will all have ownership on the two gamer that you will have to consider with Doubs probably being the odd man out on GB and DJ Moore/OZ on the Bears side. Safe to say you can easily swap to these guys in your stacks to be different. On the 2 gamer Jacobs is a tough fade for me at his price but you can swap to Swift or Kyren and maintain well projected lineups.
- JAX/BUF
- This game is interesting because it has by far the highest game total on the weekend, but, one of these teams is very good at stopping what makes the other’s offense work and the other is rather elite at what the other ream can’t stop. That’s a word vomit salad so my apologies, but I’ll explain.
- Buffalo is coming in with a banged up Josh Allen here and they have been rolling as of late. They’ve won 5 of their last 6 and in their 5 wins, they we’re able to put up points. Josh Allen had to do his whole superman thing for it to happen, but James Cook had 2 big games against CLE and NE, should have had a third against CIN if he didn’t fumble twice with one on the goal line. I should mention too, these wins came against PIT on the road, New England on the road, Cleveland on the road, and the Jets at home where they rested started. They couldn’t get much going against Philly on the ground or through the air.
- NE’s defense has shown cracks through the air and their run defense fell off a cliff about a month ago. Cleveland is Cleveland and they’ve been demolished by run games the entire 2nd half of the season. PIT is a gettable defense through the air but their run defense has also been atrocious the last few weeks. Cincinatti we picked on all year. My point is, they’ve been able to win in matchups where they’ve been able to run the rock. I’m not so sure how they’re going to do that against Jacksonville who has been consistently stopping good rushing attacks.
- On the Jags side, I think this offense will be able to get whatever they want whenever they want. While the Bills have been on this streak, they’ve also given up almost as many points as they’ve scored. You can run on them, you can throw on them, and ultimately, the public sentiment here is that the Bills are the better team here. Vegas throwing out the Bills as road favorites screams trap to me in a BIG way.
- The Jags will be able to run a bit here and I think that will open up all the play action for them. I like the Jags to score points and will gladly eat the crow if this doesn’t go my way.
- Leverage points: I will never call Josh aAllen or James Cook a bad play but I think there’s more meat on the bone here by focusing on the Jacksonville side. Simply fading Buffalo here with chalk expected on guys like Brandin Cooks (gtofh with that bullshit) can be enough. JAX will have ownership on their pieces for good reason. I think my favorite pieces are Lawrence, ETN, and BTJ given BTJ’s ownership. Everyone else is fine too but really fading the Bills is enough leverage for this situation.
- PHI/SF
- This is a horrendously bad matchup for the 49ers here who on defense haven’t been able to stop anything. And conversely, while this offense has been very very good against bad defenses, they’ve struggled against stronger units. And PHI might be the best defense in the league at the current moment.
- On the SF side, they’re coming in very hobbled with some question marks on both sides of the ball. They’re already down some defensive pieces and may be down a 1-2 more. Pearsall is a true Q tag as well. Trent Williams said he’s playing but we’ll see come Sunday.
- There is some merit to trying to make SF work here given that only CMC will have considerable ownership from this team on a 6 gamer. Just think they’re very up against it here. The Eagles moved from 3 pt favs to 6 and that’s indicative that this will probably be a bad day at the office for this group. Eagles play a good mix of disguise defense and tend to go to man on crucial downs. What makes them so eltie compared to other defenses is that they have speed all over the field. Their LB core is increidbly fast and can cover skill position players effectively. They’re very good at covering the flats too.
- On the PHI side. Even thought it hasn’t been pretty, this offense has found a rhythm. I’ve been critical of Patullo all season but over the last few weeks he’s actually changed ALOT of how he’s been calling plays. A lot more outside zone run schemes, play action, and quick decision making reads for Hurts. They’ve been bad at executing in the run game but this matchup is ideal for what a team like PHI is trying to run on offense.
- Saquon is in a very good spot here. He’s been bad this year from a results standpoint but if they can establish these outside runs I firmly believe he could blow the cover off this tag. In the passing game, hard not to love any of the big 3.
- Leverage points: Fading CMC will be a move I’m making here. It’s just a bet on the game environment going a certain way and cutting out 60% of the field on the 3 gamer and 55% of the field on the 6 gamer. PHI stacks are very sharp here as is Saquon. From the SF side, you can play some of the receiving options for sure like Jennings, Kittle, and Bourne/Robinson if Pearsall’s out. I’m not playng Purdy here.
- NE/LAC
- Out of every game on Wildcard Weekend, this is the one game I think has the most likelihood to make you scratch your head a bit. LAC is coming in off of a winnable home game against Houston when Herbert, again, got hurt. This offensive line is so bad I just don’t think they’re capable of being an efficient offense unless they get a cupcake matchup. The Patriots have been taking care of business all season, but it’s wild to say out loud that this is probably the best team they will have seen all year outside of seeing the Bills twice and the Ravens. So what’s going to win out?
- On the Chargers side, they’re going to have to run the rock here. As I mentioned earlier breaking down Buffalo, this Pats run D has fallen off a cliff. They’ve been absolutely horrendous unit and have given up big games to Derrick Henry, Breece Hall, James Cook, Chase Brown and even in a blowout win, surrendered 5.7 YPC to Devin Singletary of all people. LAC has been running it better as of late but if they can establish it here… I think this will open up alot. Pats have decreased their once man-heavy usage but it’s more of a fluid situation. If they think they can get after you a bit, they’ll sit in man. They tend to bring it out more against weaker WR rooms and LAC has a lot of talent.
- If Hampton goes I’m willing to roll the dice here in tournaments for sure. I think you should absolutely have one of Ladd, QJ, or Gadsen in a portion of your rosters. This Pats defense isn’t that great or talented. They have two really good corners in Gonzalez and Jones, but I’m not really afraid of these 1-on-1 matchups here. Also, Herbert is sub $6k on this slate and will undoubtedly see “some” man. Probably gets 30-40 yards with his legs.
- For the Pats here, they get a LAC defense that is very stingy and have been able to contain running games the second half of the year. They do have a propensity to give up some downfield production through the air and I think the Pats will have deep shots here to take if they want to. The pricing on their receiving options are a bit expensive for the 6 gamer but for the 3 gamer, absolutely they’re all in play. Diggs and Henry are solid and do think Boutte can catch a deep ball.
- Don’t have a ton of interest in this side on the 6 gamer but think they can have more success through the air. Henderson and Rhamondre are always in play, especially as pass catchers, but I am a bit worried about having to pick between them on the 6 gamer.
- Leverage points: LAC stacks in my opinion really have a path here to exploding if they’re able to establish the run. If they get that going, that will open up so much else. I like having one LAC receiving option on all my teams for the 3 game slate. Hampton will have ownership but I think that’s fine. NE will have depressed ownership but for good reason. Everyone is expensive here and this is one of the better/consistent defensive units. My preference is focusing on Henry or a deep threat option like Boutte/Douglas.
- HOU/PIT
- On the surface this game looks pretty gross and it’s hard to argue that it won’t be gross. I think there’s some fantasy relevancy for sure. But this one feels pretty simple to break down.
- Houston should be able to throw here but they don’t want to play fast if they don’t have to. I’m not playing Woody Marks at 20+% ownership on this slate as this guy just hasn’t done it for us at all. At $5,600, even if he finds the box, do you need him? I don’t think so. For me, it’s the passing game. Collins, Dalton Schultz, and Higgins make a lot of sense here. Jaylin Noel is a VERY interesting flyer in larger fields for his big play ability.
- For PIT, old man Rodgers got it done and now they get DK Metcalf back. This Houston defense is perceived as the best unit in the league. While they’re a good defense in the context of this season, they are not a unit that you need to avoid. Particularly, they get absolutely murdered in the slot and have been able to get burned by deep threat receivers.
- I am concerned about the PIT RBs having ceiling games as their ceilings are tied to their receiving work but this is a matchup they can win on the ground. Just a matter of who you think gets there.
- Leverage points: HOU passing game, PIT running game. Those are the two most likely successful paths for both offenses. I think Jaylin Noel is a sick GPP dart throw. Adam Thielen, Calvin Austin and Pat Freirmuth do run a fair amount of slot routes. Particularly, Thielen and Friermuth. DK and Calvin Austin are always good for a deep ball.
For my top stacks this week, I’m going to list them in order. You should play the slates where you feel like you have the most edge, so this is how I rank them. Please remember, this is for DFS purposes and scoring, I am not suggesting who win games –
- PHI
- GB
- LAC
- JAX
- CAR
- LAR
- HOU
No core from me this week as you can play multiple slates! Use the suggestions from the writeups and go bink one!
BOL! – Jason O