Welcome to Wednesday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a pretty flat 10-game slate today. Let’s get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 5 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
- Ownership here is pretty flat around the industry, but from what I’ve seen recently I think the chalkiest lines – probably only around 12% will be OTT1 (Stuezle/Tkachuk/Zetterlund), DAL2 (Rantanen/Johnston/Duchene), and SJ2 (Wennberg/Eklund/Toffoli). CGY2 (Kadri/Farabee/Sharangovich), OTT2 (Batherson/Cozens/Perron), and MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Bolduc) will likely be around 10%. I do not see any line getting over 15% in any format tonight, so it’s tough to say that ownership is a real worry. The only team I could see getting runaway ownership is OTT against a terrible defensive team in PIT with a terrible goalie in Stuart Skinner.
- I think we have some really solid value defensemen tonight so I would not be afraid to play an expensive stack. MIN1 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Kaprizov), EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins), TOR1 (Matthews/Nylander/Kneis), and TB1 (Cirelli/Kucherov/Hagel) all probably get 5-6% ownership tonight. I could definitely see MIN1 and EDM1 getting up to low double digits if Brandon Hagel is out though. I suspect that TOR is the lowest owned of the 4 by a pretty significant margin here. They’ve been pretty bad, their Power Play has been even worse, and they’re facing the Vezina trophy favorite in Logan Thompson. The WSH Penalty Kill is absolutely terrible though – so if there’s a bounce-back spot for the Leafs Power Play this could easily be it. Given that ownership seems to be driven more and more by recent performance and matchup – I think TOR1 is a phenomenal large field play as our best graded stack on the board by a lot.
- Washington is dealing with a bunch of unknown GTDs tonight due to a flu going around – but our projections love WSH1 tonight. I agree. The Leafs defense just isn’t good and their goaltending is pretty mid. I suspect the field shies away from them due to this. Therefore, they also look like a strong play tonight.
- I think the highest ceiling spot of the night is definitely EDM. They are facing a penalty-happy Boston team and the Oilers power play has finally come to life with a scorching 30% plus success rate the last 10 games. This may drive more ownership to them, but I am not that concerned about it. EDM1 looks about 10% owned – which seems fair. Any power play combination – or just McDavid/Draisaitl with a cheaper PP stack – seems like a strong play.
- MIN is definitely in a strong spot against this CBJ team that has no problem allowing the other team to shoot. I do worry that they get the “shiny new toy” ownership bump in large fields ahead of the Oilers though. It’s just not really a volume power play spot and they are somewhat overpriced when you add Quinn Hughes.
- There are a glut of cheap stacks our model likes tonight. TOR2 (Tavares/McMann/Robertson), WSH2 (Wilson/Protas/Sourdif), SJ2, and – per usual – CBJ2 (Monahan/Jenner/Chinakov) look like strong point/$ values. I do like this spot for CBJ2 a fair bit. They still get to play about 40% of their minutes with Werenski and they get to face the depth of this decimated Wild Blue line that is still without Brodin, Middleton, and Bogosian. I would guess Wallstedt being so good suppresses their ownership as well.
- They come with 9-10% ownership, but I do not mind PIT1 (Crosby/Rakell/Rust) tonight at all. The Ottawa goaltending just hasn’t been good and those guys are a huge percentage of PIT’s scoring.
- The matchups tool likes EDM, MIN, WSH, CBJ, and – to a lesser extent – DAL tonight.
Synopsis
I don’t really think there’s a concentrated chalk line tonight besides maybe OTT. It’s a tougher small field slate for those who like to load up on obvious chalk. I think WSH1 (as long as everyone plays) is a very strong small field play tonight at moderate ownership. They project about the same as OTT. You can play them together or play WSH and pivot to DAL2 or something. WSH1/CBJ1 with Werenski also seems solid if you can make it work.
In larger fields, choose your own adventure. I like WSH, EDM, CBJ, and MIN as strong spots tonight. Washington definitely has a chance to come in lower owned than they should tonight. The large field leverage play is definitely TOR1 though. I don’t think this is an “obvious sharp play” situation where the field flocks here either. The field flocks to good numbers against poor goalies. This spot is not that.
NHL Defense
- The clear chalk at defense is Jake Sanderson (6500). I’m not sure he gets the 30% that’s projected around the industry, but he might in smaller fields. That seems excessive when you can get Evan Bouchard (6800), Quinn Hughes (7200) or Zach Werenski (8200) at between 12-15%. Darren Raddysh (5800) probably gets 10% as well.
- Morgan Reilly (4500) looks like a super strong play at almost no ownership. Same can be said for Charlie McAvoy (4500). I suspect this 4K range gets somewhat underowned tonight.
- Your cheap PP defensemen are: Matt Grzelcyk (2500) and Scott Morrow (2500, if no Panarin)
- I definitely do not mind Darnell Nurse (4400), Matthias Ekholm (4000), Ivan Provorov (3800), or Artem Zub (3200) as less popular defensemen attached to more popular stacks.
Synopsis: Sanderson is a key decision point on the slate tonight. Maybe he’s great, but there’s many other good options around his price, Zach Werenski, and underpriced Reilly/McAvoy. I think it’s fine to play or pass on Sanderson. It’s not likely that all these other high-priced guys around him all fail. He needs 20+ to beat you.
NHL Goalies
- My guess is that Andrei Vasilevsky (8300), Dennis Hildeby (7000), and Dustin Wolf (7900) are the most popular at 10-15% each
- Pick your poison. I have no preference
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- I think the first decision you have to make is what you’re doing with OTT and Sanderson. Then it’s are you playing a more balanced build or going up to the EDM/MIN/TOR tier.
- It’s really a choose your own adventure slate. The only extreme chalk is Sanderson (and maybe OTT) I do really like WSH1 and CBJ1 as lower owned options tonight.
- The charp spot that the field will not want to go is TOR1. I think this is a very high ceiling spot for TOR tonight if it breaks right. They could easily win somebody a trophy tonight.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – I’m probably passing on OTT. Big total, but it’s predicated on efficiency rather than shot volume. It’s also really not that owned. I think DAL2, WSH1, and CBJ1 are really strong alternatives. So is Zach Werenski instead of cheaper Sanderson. There’s plenty of value at defense to pay for him.
In larger fields, WSH, CBJ, and TOR seem like the lower owned spots. TOR looks like an especially strong one per our projections. I like the stacks mentioned, MTL1, PIT1, and the EDM PP the best. Find your own way though. Rely on the projections and you’ll be playing better NHL DFS than most.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm