Welcome to a massive 12 game slate of NHL DFS. Let’s get into it!

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back. 

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 5 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

 

NHL DFS Lines

 

• This is somewhat of a tough slate to break down. There are three lines that likely come in at around 15% owned and another team that will be popular as a whole. The two lines that will be popular are NSH1 (O’Reilly/Stamkos/Forsberg) and VGK1 (Eichel/Stone/Barbashev). Both of these teams are in strong spots against the Islanders (NSH) and Blue Jackets (VGK). I do prefer the Vegas side though because I like that game a fair amount, but it’s a marginal preference. The third line that probably comes in around 12% is BOS1 (Pastrnak/Lindholm/Khusnutdinov). They are facing a Calgary team that commits plenty of penalties on a road B2B with a shaky goalie in net. I suspect people will leave Kusnutdinov off and replace him with cheap Zacha or somebody else on PP1. VGK1 is my preference here, but it’s only a slight lean over NSH1.
• Let’s talk about COL now. They project for a lot of ownership here against a backup goalie from OTT. I have Cale Makar (7700) at 25% owned, Nathan MacKinnon at 20%, Brock Nelson 18%, Necas 14%, and Nichushkin 12%. That’s a lot of ownership for such an expensive team. My hunch is we see a lot of COL2 with MacKinnon or Makar and less full COL1 stacks. The field inherently dislikes playing these super expensive stacks on these big slates. It’s reasonable to play them if you want, but I don’t know what cheap line I’d play them. The tighter pricing on skaters is going to make it tough. My suspicion is that the field will use NSH2 (Haula/Bunting/Evangelista) to get there though.
• The first contrarian spot I really like tonight is Columbus. CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Voronkov) projects well for us per usual, but they seem to be garnering very little ownership as a pivot away from NSH1. It’s not really a bad spot for them either. Carter Hart has been absolutely abysmal in net for the Knights, the pace is good, and that line generates a ton of shots (72 per 60 minutes). I have no issue going here at 2%. You can also go to CBJ3 (Monahan/Johnson/Jenner) as a cheap filler to pair with someone like COL. I like them as well.
• Let’s talk about this FLA/MTL game now. This is a game between two very physical, penalty-happy teams with good power plays that the field may be drawn to more than we think. Be warned though – there is a lot of variance here. The game projects to be very slow and our betting tools have this as by far the best under bet on the board. If I have to pick – I definitely like the MTL side better. MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Texier), MTL2 (Kapanen/Demidov/Slafkovsky), and the Montreal Power Play all seem fine.
• Ok so let’s talk about Carolina here. They are in an elite spot against an Anaheim team that has started to really struggle. The scoring is spread out on the Hurricanes, but I don’t hate going to the power play or any of the three lines here. CAR1 (Aho/Svechnikov/Jarvis) is surprisingly 3rd in our line marketshares tool. They probably carry around 7% ownership – but that’s fine. I also don’t mind going to either CAR2 (Stankoven/Blake/Hall) or a Jarvis one-off. You can play the rest of CAR3 I suppose – but it’s tough for me to put Martinook and Staal in a lineup on a 12-game slate despite how good that line has been historically with Jarvis.
• You can definitely go to either side of the WPG/EDM game as well. EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins) and WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Iafallo) definitely have appeal here. Whatever power plays there are should be lucrative for their respective teams. These PKs have been awful.
• I do think you can go back to CGY2 (Backlund/Coleman/Coranato) or the CGY Power Play against the penalty-happy Bruins. It’s a big slate and there are a ton of options here though.
• I’m not buying into the Philip Grubauer comeback. I definitely like going to MIN1 (Yurov/Zuccarello/Kaprizov) or MIN2 (Boldy/Eriksson Ek/Johansson) as a contrarian pivot. They are in the same pile as Columbus for me.
• Buffalo is another intriguing team. BUF2 (Norris/Tuch/Zucker) and BUF1 (Thompson/Doan/Krebs) both project well for us.

In smaller fields – I’m probably getting away from NSH and BOS – but I don’t blame anyone for sticking close to NSH. They project pretty well. I think it’s reasonable to go with COL in smaller fields – but Vegas is probably the most appealing to me in these contests. That is simply the best game on the board and I think Columbus pushes them tonight.

In larger fields, It’s pretty wide open beyond NSH and BOS. COL does seem pretty high owned for such a big slate though. I prefer CAR1 or EDM1 if I am shopping on the high end just due to ownership. Columbus is my go-to here though. That looks like the best game on the board and Hart is a guy I will attack. Both CBJ1 and CBJ3 look like strong pivots away from chalkier BOS and NSH. I really like the ANH/CAR game here as well with Andersen in net for Carolina. Good luck figuring out the ANH lines though. Quennville could just nuke them at any time.

NHL Defense

 

• Cale Makar (7700) is definitely the chalk here at 25% owned. Charlie McAvoy (4800) and Shayne Gostisbehere look 17% owned each. Josh Morrissey (5300), Noah Hanifin (5000), Aaron Ekblad (4400) and Luke Hughes (4500) come in around 10% each as well. 
• I definitely like paying for Zach Werenski (9000) at sub-5% ownership. It’s hard to imagine Columbus breaking the slate without him, but I get not wanting to pay that when Auston Matthews is $300 more
• Evan Bouchard (7000) and Quinn Hughes (6900) are obviously strong options at different ownership levels. I’m fine with the 8-10% on Bouchard and 1-2% on Hughes
• If you want some cheap guys: Jalen Chatfield (2600), Nick Blankenburg (2800), Sam Malinski (2900), Dylan Samberg (2900), Brady Skjei (3000), Rasmus Ristolainen (3100), Tony DeAngelo (3400), Brett Pesce (3400) are a few guys to look at.

Synopsis: Makar has a great price, but OTT is a solid defensive team at even strength. I’m fine with him, but I could see getting away from him in all formats. McAvoy, Gostisbehere, Morrissey, Hanifin, Ekblad, and L. Hughes are all fine mid-tier guys. Quinn Hughes at no ownership against Seattle seems very strong tonight.

NHL Goalies

 

• Juuse Saros (7600) and Scott Wedgewood (8400) look like the chalky guys around 15%. It’s nothing extreme though.
• I don’t mind Wallstedt (8000) or Korpisalo (8100) as a couple of the safer plays on the board. Dave Rittich (7800) is definitely a reasonable play if you’re not playing NSH.

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

 

 

NHL Stacks and Theory

 

• NSH1, BOS1, VGK1, and COL encompasses the chalky stuff tonight. COL1/NSH2 will be the popular way to play COL1. I’m ok with COL, but OTT is a good defensive team at even strength and the COL Power Play has not been very good. They’re amazing and I do not mind going to them, but be aware this isn’t an amazing spot.
• I strongly prefer VGK1 over NSH1 or BOS1. It’s the better game environment. That NSH/NYI total might drop to 5.5 before the puck drops.
• CBJ1, MIN1, and MIN2 all look like strong plays at low ownership tonight.
• I don’t mind going to any of the 3 Carolina lines or the power play here either. CAR1 and EDM1 look like the highest ceiling plays in the slate behind COL1.
• Both CAR2 and CAR3 look like premium pay-down lines tonight
• Attacking the EDM/WPG game seems reasonable. I like both sides here
• I’m probably not going to FLA/MTL. It seems like a spot the field goes to that our models do not like
• Pivoting away from 25% owned Makar to cheaper guys, Werenski, Q. Hughes, or Bouchard is definitely a move.

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – You can go to COL, but probably not with NSH. You can if you fade Makar – but idk why you would want to in a smaller field. I definitely prefer VGK1 over the other chalky mid-tier stuff in BOS1 and NSH1

In larger fields – Columbus and Minnesota both look great at lower ownership. I do not mind attacking either side of ANH/CAR or EDM/WPG either. Zack Werenski looks great at reduced ownership. I don’t really care about the price – if CBJ plays well he will likely be one of the reasons why.  BUF is also an interesting team to play. BUF2 is my preference though.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com: 

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm