Welcome back to our regularly scheduled NHL DFS articles. We have an 11 game slate to work with tonight – and it’s a fun one. Let’s get into it!

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back. 

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

 

NHL DFS Lines

 

• We have some pretty obvious chalk on this slate – and it starts with VGK2 (Hertl/Dorofeyev/Holtz). They have been white-hot over the last 10 days or so and project extremely well across the Industry. I do expect we see a pretty big gap in ownership between smaller fields/higher stakes and anything $5 and under. The folks who don’t play off projections seem likely to shy away from the matchup with Wallstedt to a certain extent. However, we are talking about the difference between 15-17% and 22-25% ownership. They’re chalky either way. It’s also very easy to pair VGK2 with a COL stack of MacKinnon/Landeskog/Nelson/Toews. I expect COL1 to come in at 12-15% ownership with MacKinnon in the 20s.
  
• The other chalky spot the field will love is this SJ/ANH game. Every time two teams with exciting players like Gauthier and Celebrini get together – especially when they’re players and teams the public loves – ownership congregates there. I expect both SJ1 (Celebrini/Eklund/Chernyshov) and ANH2 (McTavish/Gauthier/Sennecke) to accrue 15% ownership each. I have SJ2 (Wennberg/Toffoli/Graf) and COL2 (Nelson/Nichushkin/Lehkonen) coming in at 8-10% as well.
• So there’s essentially two routes to go on this slate – you can pay for an expensive 19-21K line or go more balanced. Balanced lineups in the 4/3/1, 3/3/1/1, or 4/2/2 mold tend to have a stronger win rate on slates this size. SJ1, VGK2, SJ2, and ANH2 all fit this construction. However, we have plenty of options to be different here. That starts – for me – with MIN1 (Hartman/Kaprizov/Zuccarello). We have seen a price decrease of about 1.5K for them – down to 15.7. This is a line generating 3.6 expected goals on only 55 shot attempts per 60. They also get to play with the elite pairing of Quinn Hughes and Brock Faber who are generating a whopping 3.73 expected goals/60 themselves. Vegas isn’t a bad defensive team, but they have allowed the third most high danger chances since losing Theodore and the goaltending is shaky at best. The price is great and there is no reason to worry about the matchup here.
• UTA1 (Schmaltz/Keller/Peterka) is also in a pretty interesting spot at a fair price of 16.9. They are facing this penalty-happy Nashville team who has suddenly been struggling defensively. Utah’s style of play doesn’t often lead to a ton of scoring, but the Power Plays should give them a shot to put up the necessary production.
• Despite the devastating loss of Zach Werenski – I do not mind going to CBJ1 here. OTT is a solid defensive team, but – man – Merlainen is shaky and Columbus puts a lot of shots on net. I think the price for them is fair at 15.7. FLA2 (Bennett/Verhaege/Marchand) just continues to chug along producing elite offense. I do not really care that they are facing Logan Thompson. They seem fine, but come without a discounted price.
• If you want to shop on the high end – I think that’s fine. COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Landeskog) are in a good spot despite facing a good defensive team in the Kings. I think I’d rather play WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi) at less than half the ownership against a terrible Edmonton penalty kill and goaltender though. WPG1 is near the top of my board tonight. I also like EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins). I doubt anybody plays them against Hellebuyck – but they’re still the Oilers.
• OTT2 (Cozens/Batherson/Perron) makes a strong alternative to VGK2 in smaller fields. You get two guys on the power play and both of Chabot/Spence project well as paired defensemen. They won’t be low owned, but I think they’re fine.
• On the cheaper end – outside of VGK2 and OTT2 – the Calgary Flames would be my first lean. They’re facing chalky Swayman and this Boston team that plays very physical hockey – so it’s a strong power play spot. The Flames have also consistently been in the top 5 of high danger chances created since the fiest month of the year. All 3 of CGY1 (Kadri/Farabee/Sharangovich), CGY2 (Frost/Huberdeau/Coranato) and CGY3 (Backlund/Coleman/Zary) are in play tonight. A CGY Power Play stack firmly fits the common large-slate-winning meta of cheap power plays stacks. A STL Power Play stack (Thomas/Kyrou/Buchnevich/Faulk) also fits this idea pretty well.
• There’s a ton of other cheap lines to look at tonight. UTA3 (McBain/Carcone/But) is probably my favorite in the 10K range. Every iteration of NSH3 has been dreadful defensively and gets lit up night after night. If you want to pay for a one-off center like MacKinnon or an underpriced guy like Bennett – Carcone/But is a reasonable two-man.
• If Adam Fox returns for New York – you can add NYR1 (Zibanejad/Panarin/Lafreniere) to the list of lines I am interested in.

In smaller fields – VGK2 is a double condom play again in a much worse spot. They still have not been good at even strength, but the recency bias folks will love them looking at the last few games. Rinse, Repeat. It’s fine if you want to play COL1, SJ1, or ANH1. I do think WPG1 or Scheifele/Connor/Nyquist are really strong alternatives to COL1 though. They do not project that much worse and are in a better spot at less than half the ownership. Pivoting VGK2 to OTT2 or a Calgary combination is also a move. I do not think you have enough win equity with COL1/VGK2 or an ANH/SJ game stack though.

In larger fields, choose your own adventure. I really like MIN1 here at a discount. WPG1 is also a really strong play with a high ceiling. CGY and STL Power Play stacks fit the meta of well-projected, cheap power play stacks that have been so successful this year. If you really want to play the ANH/SJ game – you will have to dump ownership elsewhere. This is especially true at lower stakes where the ownership on that game will be enormous due to public bias.

 

NHL Defense

 

• Thomas Chabot (4300), John Klingberg (4500), and Noah Hanifin (4600) are the chalk defensemen. They all look around 15-20% owned to me. Devon Toews looks around 12% owned. Chabot’s price is crazy. Playing the 4K defensemen is the clear chalk move on this slate. 
• Vince Dunn (4800), Justin Faulk (4400), Seth Jones (4400), and Jake Trouba (4600) all seem like reasonable alternatives in the same price range.
• Neal Pionk (3500), Philip Broberg (3400), Denton Mateyechuk (3400), Olen Zellweger (3400), Aaron Ekblad (3400), Dylan Samberg (3200), Owen Power (3200), Alexander Nikishin (3100), and Brady Skjei (3000) all seem like reasonable guys on the cheap end here.
• It’s obviously fine to spend up. I like Josh Morrissey (5600) if he plays, Rasmus Andersson (5800) Jakob Chycrun (6200), Jake Sanderson (6400), and Quinn Hughes (6800)
• You can certainly play Cale Makar (7900), but this isn’t the spot for me.
• Your cheap power play guys are: Denton Mateyechuk (3400), Scott Morrow (3300, only if no Fox), and Drew Doughty (3800).

Synopsis: The 4K defensemen is the clear chalk way to go here. There are enough other guys that project well. You do not have to play the 4 chalky guys listed above. I think spending up to the 5-6K range is a solid way to go tonight. If Morrissey is out I would love Neal Pionk as the PP1 and he would be at the top of my board. Seth Jones, Justin Faulk, and Denton Mateyechuk look great in all formats as well.

 

 

NHL Goalies

 

• I suspect the highest owned goalies are Jeremy Swayman (7500) and MacKenzie Blackwood (8500) at 15-17% each. Swayman seems shaky, but the upside is really strong due to CGY’s high shot volume.
• Igor Shesterkin (7000) and Jesper Wallstedt (7400) are both really good and priced down. Hopefully they don’t catch too much ownership. I do like Connor Hellebuyck (7600) and Whomever is in net for the Blues as well.

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

 

 

NHL Stacks and Theory

 

• VGK2 (Hertl/Dorofeyev/Holtz), SJ1 (Celebrini/Eklund/Chernyshov), ANH2 (McTavish/Gauthier/Sennecke), MacKinnon/Lehkonen/Nelson, Chabot, Klingberg, Hanifin, and Toews are your chalk pieces here.
• I strongly prefer the SJ side if I’m attacking that game. ANH does not project as well industry-wide, but their ownership will still be inflated by popular sentiment. They are exactly the type of play I want to avoid.
• VGK2 seems fine – but there are strong alternatives at the same or lesser price(s). They don’t seem worth it to me.
• If we look at the lineups that have been winning these big slates – it’s a lot of 4/3/1 and 3/3/1/1 with mid-priced stacks and either two expensive defensemen or a high priced one-off or two. These are the constructions to target. CGY, SJ, and STL power Play stacks clearly fit the winning formula of cheaper power play stacks with upside. MIN1 and CBJ1 are also strongly in line with that construction.
• I strongly prefer WPG1 to any of COL, EDM, or BOS. I think they’re a great play and probably undervalued due to lesser name recognition/lower perceived upside.
• I think spending up above the 4K range for defensemen is a sound way to go tonight. The only exception is Mateyechuk or Pionk if Morrissey sits.
• NYR1 becomes pretty interesting if Adam Fox is back. Carolina’s high-paced style definitely lends itself to high danger chances for the other team. You can also go to OTT1/PP if you want. The field loves to pick on Columbus though – so be aware that the ownership may be higher than I project.

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – I think SJ is probably my preference among the chalk. Vegas is fine due to their industry-wide projection, but it’s not a slam-dunk spot by any means. It’s a below average spot for COL against this Kings team that likes to jam you up and play neutral zone hockey. Play them if you want – but I strongly prefer WPG1 or going to a more balanced construction with MIN1 and/or CBJ1.

In larger fields, choose your own adventure. I really like the prices on MIN1 and CBJ1 tonight. I think CGY and STL Power Play stacks have a fair amount on win equity. I don’t even hate a 5-man San Jose stack with some lower owned stuff around it. If I’m spending up – It’s WPG1 for me. I see too many other lines ending up higher owned than them. CBJ3, OTT3, and UTA3 are a few cheaper lines you can use to offset the cost of WPG. Keep an eye out for news on Morrissey though. Pionk and Nyquist would make the WPG Power Play super affordable and a strong play – especially at lower stakes – if that comes down to a GTD. Nobody will play EDM1 either. I think they’re a pretty strong large field play. Good luck tonight!

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com: 

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm