Welcome to a full 9 game slate of NHL DFS. There’s plenty to talk about at the top – so let’s get into it!

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back. 

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 6 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

*Travis Konecny (PHI) skated this morning. He is a GTD, but I assume he plays and slides back onto the first line in place of Michkov

 

NHL DFS Lines

 

• It seems somewhat flat at the top tonight ownership-wise. MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Texier), MIN1 (Kaprizov/Zuccarello/Yurov), MIN2 (Hartman/Boldy/Johansson), FLA1 (Lundell/Reinhart/Luostarianen), and PHI1 (Dvorak/Zegras/Konecny) all look to be 12-15% owned. Nobody is overwhelming chalk here. I’d say MTL1 isa probably the highest owned due to the matchup against Tolopio. These teams are all in reasonable spots against suspect defenses and/or goalies. MTL is probably my favorite due to the fact that Suzuki/Caufield/Dobson/Hutson or Matheson looks like such a strong construction tonight. The chalk build will be to play two of these lines, MIN PP, or the FLA PP. That’s probably where I go from a small field perspective
• I do want to touch on this VAN/MTL game briefly. Tolopilo is likely to be pretty popular as a min-price goalie, but VAN as a whole looks to have pretty muted ownership against this penalty-happy MTL team that just got perennial sin bin resident Kaiden Guhle back from IR. I definitely do not mind attacking the shaky MTL goaltending here with VAN1 (Petterson/DeBrusk/Karlsson) or the VAN Power Play. Tom Willander (2800) and Liam Ohgren (2500) are also really interesting pieces at dirt cheap prices if you want to jam in an expensive player with a 5-man stack.
• The FLA/BUF game is also worth discussing. The FLA side will be popular. You can certainly play their top 2 lines – but a Rodrigues/Samoskevich 2-man is definitely an interesting way to go. They both project really well industry-wide and make sense in a more expensive COL or EDM stack. Buffalo is also a pretty interesting team on this slate at moderate ownership. BUF2 (Norris/Tuch/Zucker) are definitely in a strong matchup against this Bennett/Verhaege combination which has been getting run over all year. You can definitely add Thompson/Doan/Dahlin to that mix as well. FLA commits plenty of penalties and the BUF Power Play has been absolutely elite this year. I like them quite a bit tonight
• The third team I really like tonight is New Jersey. The public loves Jesper Wallstedt – and with good reason. He’s been fantastic. However, I would expect NJ1 (Hughes/Bratt/Hischier) to log some heavy minutes tonight – as loaded top lines typically do. They project pretty well industry-wide and I expect the field to go to EDM1 or COL1 instead of them despite a much more expensive price point. NJ1 is definitely a strong large field GPP play tonight.
• It is totally fine if you want to go with COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Lehkonen) or EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins). They are both in strong spots tonight. Our model absolutely loved COL1 – per usual – against this shaky Leafs team. I have no problem with that. The Rodrigues/Samoskevich 2-man, LAK2 (Byfield/Perry/Foegele), LAK3 (Turcotte/Kuzmenko/Fiala), CAR2 (Stankoven/Hall/Blake), and MTL3 (Danault/Bolduc/Gallagher) all look like strong options to save money.

In smaller fields – I’m probably sticking close to the balanced construction. I don’t think you need COL1 or EDM1, but I suppose you can go there if you want. 

In larger fields, I really like NJ1, the BUF power play, and the VAN power play as solid options. I think it’s an excellent slate to utilize double defense to offset some ownership on well-projected spots. MTL3 and CAR2 look like excellent cheaper options to offset the cost of an EDM or COL if you want to go there. 

NHL Defense

 

• Evan Bouchard (7200) is 17%., Cale Makar (7800) is 15%, and Quinn Hughes is 13%. Noah Dobson (5700) and Matthias Ekholm look like two of the more popular plays at around 12% each as well
• I think it makes a ton of sense to play Tom Willander (2800) as the VAN PP1 defensemen. He is woefully underpriced here. Gus Forsling (3100) also projects well on the cheaper end, but much more popular.
• I definitely like Rasmus Dahlin (6600) on the high end as a pivot away from the chalkier guys.
• If you want to go with two cheaper defensemen – or even two guys in the mid-tier like Hutson/Dobson – I think that’s a contrarian way to go tonight.
• As I’ve already said – I think playing two defensemen from the same team makes a lot of sense tonight. Hughes/Faber, Bouchard/Nurse, Hutson/Dobson, Dobson/Matheson, and Makar/Toews all make sense in this regard. Most of the really good spots will be owned tonight, so this is a strong way to differentiate.

Synopsis: If you want to play one of the expensive guys it’s totally fine. I think Dahlin is a strong pivot tonight. I also think getting into the mid-tier or playing someone really cheap like Willander is a great option – especially if you’re going to play two chalk lines. I really like playing two defensemen from the same team and getting to a one-off F/C though.

NHL Goalies

 

• I expect Jesper Wallstedt (8200) and Nikolai Tolopilo (6500) to be the chalkiest guys here at 15-17% each. Spencer Knight (6900) and Jonathan Quick (7900) probably get around 10%
• I don’t have any strong takes here. John Gibson (7400) probably has some upside. Darcy Kuemper (7600) is having a great season and will have no ownership.

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

 

 

NHL Stacks and Theory

 

• MTL1, FLA1, MIN1, MIN2, and PHI1 are the popular lines tonight. I think this is probably where your small field builds start
• I really like NJ1, VAN Power Play, and BUF Power Play for larger fields tonight.
• Dahlin looks like a strong pivot away from the more popular higher end defensemen tonight. Tom Willander is definitely my favorite spend down option.
• There’s no ownership discount on Nathan MacKinnon. I still have him as the highest owned player.
• I will have COL1 and EDM1 both around 12% tonight. They’re in great spots and people will play them.

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – I really like the Suzuki/Caufield/Hutson/Dobson build. I think Tolopilo will be popular. You can go with any of the other chalk lines as well, but I don’t have a strong lean between them besides PHI1 being the lowest owned of the bunch.

In larger fields – I really like NJ1 tonight. They have some strong projections industry-wide that are similar to COL/EDM – even though our model does not agree. BUF and VAN also look like strong options to consider. There are plenty of cheap lines with little ownership to choose from, so I think play COL or EDM is also fine. I prefer EDM1 due to them being less of a favorite, but it’s not by a substantial margin. The public will prefer COL as usual.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com: 

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm