Welcome to Friday’s NHL DFS slate! Very rough night for those of us who did not play Dallas or Pittsburgh. We’re bouncing right back tonight though!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 3 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
- I think the higher owned version of the chalk is NYI1 (Horvat/Barzal/Heineman) and CGY1 (Kadri/Farabee/Zary). However, I think it will likely have Morgan Frost (4000) instead of Connor Zary (3100). I expect NYI to come in at 18-20% and CGY1 to be around 25%. The second version will be WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Iafallo) with CGY1 (Kadri/Farabee/Zary). I see WPG1 being 17-20%, but slightly less owned than NYI1.
- CGY2 (Frost/Huberdeau/Coranato) probably comes in around 15% and NYI3 (Pageau/Lee/Holmstrom) around 10-12%.
- I think CGY3 (Backlund/Coleman/Honzek) comes in at somewhat lower ownership than the other two lines. They seem fine. Backlund/Coleman play a lot against the opposing top line.
- Stop me if you’ve heard this before – The PD projections like both MIN1 and MIN2. They prefer MIN1 (Rossi/Kaprizov/Zuccarello) over MIN2 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Johansson). MIN does most of their damage on the PP – and the do lead the NHL in penalties drawn – So I would be inclined to PP stack here. You’re hoping they blow up, so it’s probably Eriksson Ek/Kaprizov/Boldy for me).
- Our Projections like them as well, but I really like SJ1 (Celebrini/Toffoli/Smith) once again tonight. Hellebuyck is the NHL’s best goaltender, but the Sharks will send out SJ2 (Wennberg/Kurashev/Gaudette) against WPG1. These Jets depth lines have really struggled defensively and there is just a massive speed deficit between SJ1 and a line with two slow guys like Toews and Iafallo. They also have a really hard time controlling the puck in front of the net (2nd in rebound shots allowed*) and commit their fair share of penalties*. SJ1 looks great at around 10% ownership.
- The New York Rangers are theoretically due a lot of positive regression in the NHL sense. They are playing farther below their expected goals than anyone else in the NHL.* They’re definitely playable against this mediocre Red Wings defense, but Panarin is just all kinds of out of sorts due to a contract dispute. I do like NYR2 (Miller/Cuylle/Lafreniere) quite a bit though. You get two guys on the PP – including the underpriced net front guy in Cuylle
- I like going back to Chicago here. CHI2 (Nazar/Teravainen/Bertuzzi) is probably in the best spot, but CHI1 (Bedard/Burakovsky/Greene) has been the much better line overall. Nazar and Burakovsky cost me all the money on Tuesday, but I’ll go right back. I think a PP stack is probably the best bet here. Calgary is a good defensive team, but they commit plenty of penalties and can be beaten on the PK. I think rolling Connor Bedard (7300) into a PP stack with CHI2 is a strong play.
- Patrick Kane is back for DET. I like that line a lot If he slides onto DET2 with Debrincat. If you want to dig deep, CGY4 (Sharangovich/Klapka/Lomberg) generate quite a bit of offense.
- Our research sheets have WPG1 with the most expected goals by a lot here. NYI1 also seperates from the field – but there’s a huge gap between them and WPG.
Synopsis: In smaller fields, there’s an argument for both builds. However, I’d lean to the WPG build. I don’t think the downgrade from a truly elite line in WPG1 to an average line like NYI1 is worth it to get one expensive defensemen. If you feel spicy – I think a NYI1/SJ1 stack could easily win all the money in something like the $333 – where everybody wants to play WPG and/or Hellebuyck. It would be hyper leveraged. Larger fields are more of a discussion. I really like SJ1, MIN PP, DET2, and CHI PP stacks. SJ1 is my favorite by quite a bit though. I don’t think people want to stack against Hellebuyck. It’s a better matchup than you think for SJ1 and a Worse matchup than you think for WPG1. I also think that CHI might just be a better team than CGY.
NHL F/C One-Offs
- The most popular one-offs here are likely to be Nazem Kadri (6200), Kyle Connor (8500), and Anders Lee (5000). They are all fine. I’m guessing 25-30% each on Connor and Kadri with 17-20% on Lee. Bo Horvat probably comes in around 25% as well.
- Morgan Frost (4000) and Alex Iafallo (4000) will be your popular cheap PP one-offs. Probably 15-20% each.
- Tyler Toffoli (5300) and Ryan Donato (4400) both project really well for us. He’s not glamorous, but I think Alex Wennberg (3200) is just underpriced. He’s seen mid-20s minutes in some recent games. That’s a ton for a center priced at 3200
- Our model doesn’t like them much, but I do really like Connor Bedard (7300), Alex DeBrincat (6700), Will Cuylle (3800), Tyler Bertuzzi (3800), and Kyle Palmieri (5500). Bedard will be the lowest owned spend-up C. Bertuzzi, Cuylle and Debrincat are the net front PP guys for their respective teams. I think Palmieri is a reasonable pivot away from Lee in a Single Entry.
- I’m fine with anybody on CHI2 as a one-off
- #TeamNonPP likes: Nino Neiderreiter (4300), Ryan Hartman (4100), Blake Coleman (3900), Jeff Skinner (3300), Connor Zary (3100), Yegor Sharangovich (3100), and Adam Klapka (2500).
- I really like Klapka. That CGY4 line generates a lot of offense and he makes a great add on top of a CGY4 stack.
Synopsis: The mid-tier definitely lacks depth tonight. Bedard and Debrincat are my favorite contrarian spends. Cuylle, Bertuzzi, and Wennberg look solid on the cheap end. Playing Zary or Farabee as a one-off makes a lot of sense. They can get there without Kadri.
NHL Defense
- Mackenzie Weegar (4500) is definitely underpriced. He’s probably 35% owned – and 40+ in smaller fields. I think the Chalk pairings are Weegar/Deangelo and Weegar/Schaefer
- Rasmus Andersson (4500), Adam Fox (5900), Josh Morrissey (7000), and Tony Deangelo (3200) probably all see mid-teens ownership. I assume Artyom Levshunov (2700) gets some ownership as well, but probably more like 7-8%.
- There’s a lot of defensemen to like tonight. I have ragged on both of these guys because they can barely skate – but John Klingberg (3800) and Jared Spurgeon (4500) both look like strong options at lower ownership. Yeah. That’s where we are tonight. I also think Brock Faber (4300) is a really strong pivot off Weegar. He’s started shooting again.
- This is where I bang the Drum for Matthew Schaefer (5400) once again. He’s still too cheap.
- Playing both Deangelo and Romanov with Anders Lee makes a ton of sense to me.
- We have some great options on #TeamNon-PP tonight. Dylan DeMelo (3400), Jonas Brodin (3300), Alexander Romanov (3100), Alex Vlasic (3100), Jake Middleton (2800), and Mario Ferraro (2600) all look great.
Synopsis: The chalk guys are fine in small field. In larger fields – I think Spurgeon, Klingberg, Schaefer, Faber, Brodin, Deangelo, Romanov, and Middleton all look good at lower ownership. I’m really not a fan of eating the huge Weegar chalk outside of small field, high stakes environments.
Goalies
- I think the chalk is Hellebuyck (8400) at around 20% in large field and a bit higher in small field. He’s easy to get. Talbot (7600) and Rittich (8000) probably get low-to-mid teens.
- It’s possible Spencer Knight (7200) gets double digit ownership as well, but the field really loves Calgary. I do like him against the overall chalkiest team in though. He’s my favorite play
- The sicko play of the slate is whomever starts for the Sharks. Him (7000) and Wallstedt (7400) are the only two truly low owned goalies tonight.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- I think both NYI1 and WPG1 will the the field’s primary lines. CGY1 will be the chalkiest line of the slate and paired with both of them a lot. The difference in these stacks is really just Schaefer vs Deangelo though. Is that really worth almost 10 points of projection and 0.75 goals (per sheets)? That’s probably the small field decision.
- I think the standout contrarian lines in the mid-range for large field are DET1, DET2, NYR2, and SJ1.
- I think all of CHI1, CHI2, and CHI3 are in play for large field GPPs. I definitely like CHI2 the most, but it’s hard to play them without Bedard – who looks like the best play on the slate once again. A CHI PP stack is definitely a strong play.
- I think a MIN PP stack is an excellent large field play. If they blow up, that’s probably how it happens.
- My clear top play here is SJ1. I’ve outlined why I think they’re in a stronger spot than people think above. You can play them straight up, add one of Klingberg/Wennberg, or both. They’re the pretty clear leverage play. People won’t want to stack against Hellebuyck. I expect them to come in around 10% – and that’s way too low.
- The Rangers are definitely due positive regression. I think NYR2 (Miller/Lafreniere/Cuylle) is a really interesting way to get access to the high ceiling centers on this slate (Celebrini, Bedard, Kadri).
- It’s a small slate, so don’t be afraid to get a bit weird. I definitely think CGY4 or a Sharangovich/Klapka stack is in play if you like CGY.
- There are likely to be some strong, lower owned PP defensemen tonight as a result of everybody playing Weegar and Andersson. Klingberg, Spurgeon, and Levshunov all look like lower owned ways to go. There are a bunch of cheap non-PP guys as well
- My favorite one-offs tonight are Debrincat, Cuylle, Bertuzzi, Coleman, and Wennberg. Klapka looks good if you need a min priced guy
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – I don’t think dropping from WPG PP to NYI1 gets you that much. I really like the Scheifele/Connor/Iafallo pairing. I also think SJ1/NYI1 could win somebody all the money in something like the $333. If I had the juice to play it, that is what I’d play.
In larger fields, I think there’s plenty of contrarian ways to approach this slate. I intend to be under the field on WPG1 and over on SJ1. It worked so well with Dallas last night that I just have to do it again. I probably come in under the field on Calgary as well. I think the Chicago side is undervalued and the Blackhawks doing well on the PP is one way to knock out some lineups. The same can be said for the MIN PP. All 3 of those ideas seem like strong options for your portfolio tonight.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm