Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This video goes over all the macro and micro decisions that you will have to make for your NFL DFS lineups. We go over team totals and advanced statistics as well as player level things you need to know. There is plenty of conversation on stacks, chalk, and key decision points. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this video goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!
NFL DFS main slate breakdown:
BUF/DET
Likely the most popular game on the slate and for plenty of good reason. The Bills have been consistent all year even if Josh Allen has had some turnover and accuracy issues popping back up. They have the highest team total on the slate but only the fourth highest pass volume expectation. Detroit on the other hand has had some great running presence but certainly lacking in the passing game. Amon-Ra St.Brown is the only true target for them with no more Hockenson. Jamaal Williams touchdowns have been crazy but he is in room for some regression there.
Notes:
- BUF passing game, Amon-Ra, Devin Singletary all priorities here
- Singletary seems especially valuable with recent rushing upside since the Josh Allen elbow injury
- DET stacks are likely more valuable overall with their prices as well as upside in a passing script
DAL/NYG
Probably the least popular game to stack. Dallas is very run heavy at a 51% adjusted pass rate. The Giants, on the other hand, are even more run heavy at a 49% adjusted pass rate! The Cowboys also have the added wrinkle of a split backfield with Zeke still heavily involved. Neither pass game is especially strong, but both CeeDee Lamb and Darius Slayton are valuable options overall. Dallas should be able to apply pressure easily in this spot and limit the Giants quite a bit. It’s anyone’s guess who will be the winner between Zeke/Pollard but it’s a good bet one of them will have 20+ fantasy points.
Notes:
- Giants missing the majority of their OL starters and DAL defense has been incredible at getting pressure.
- Neither Giants TE has been doing well, but Cager seems to have some touchdown upside?
- The under on Dak passing yards at 256.5 is free real estate.
MIN/NE
My personal favorite game to stack this slate, we have the Vikings and Patriots. The Vikings team total is only 22.5 but their pass rate is by far the highest on the slate at 66.52%. This game also has the closest spread at just -3. There are multiple players here with high volume and strong upside. Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, and Adam Thielen are all in play for the Vikings. The Patriots have Jakobi Meyers, Rhamondre Stevenson, and multiple low owned fliers as secondary options. The downside is that primetime Kirk might suck ass.
Notes:
- Dalvin Cook is a completely viable option in large field stuff and should be low owned.
- Rhamondre Stevenson can be used in passing stacks with Mac/Jakobi thanks to his incredible target floor.
- If you aren’t stacking this game, the Patriots defense is probably the best option on the slate.
NFL DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. Generally, you’ll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.
QB – Daniel Jones
RB – Saquon Barkley
RB – Rhamondre Stevenson
WR – Amon-Ra St.Brown
WR – Stefon Diggs
TE – Dawson Knox
DST – Patriots
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