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NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Browns vs. Jets

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

When looking at the captain slot, the highest positive leverage gained on a consistent basis goes to Riley Patterson. In this specific run he ended up with a 17% exposure rate in winning lineups while having an ownership projection there of just 10%. A kicker captain slate yay! As far as negative leverage goes, I didn't find any real strong consistency between options on the low end. This slate is likely not going to be dictated much by the negative leverage options in the captain slot, and is more about securing some value.

FLEX ownership distributions

The most positive leverage FLEX option is Breece Hall by a mile, with a 72% exposure rate in winning lineups and just 29% projected ownership in the slot. He's by far the most valuable option in the FLEX and has a lot of room before being overowned. Other consistently positive leverage options were Greg Zuerlein and David Njouku.

Similarly to the captain exposures and leverages, there weren't too many consistently negative options tonight. The one that stood out to me was Kareem Hunt, who was routinely around -5% negative leverage and sometimes worse. I would suppose that he makes for the best fade tonight, but there are certainly build paths towards utilizing him.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Some notes:

  • The ownership sums are pretty low here, we shouldn't have to worry quite as much about duplication problems as we would some other slates.
  • There's a pretty decent spread at captain in the highest projected dupes, but the main theme is paying down there so you can afford the best FLEX combos.
  • The main FLEX combo is Hall + Flacco, with plenty of mix in of Cooper, Njouku, and both kickers.
  • Interestingly neither defense shows up here!

You can see from such a small FLEX combo that the dupe mitigation is an afterthought today. Lots of people will be mixing and matching and the combinations shouldn't be too hard to filter out. The fact that both defenses are looking like decent leverage pieces based on the lineups above is really interesting especially since the game total is so low.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This showdown is either really hard or really easy depending on how much weight you put into the recent starts from Flacco. If you think he continues to be a god, this slate is easy. Max out the Browns, build a 5-1 with Elijah Moore CPT, and use Breece Hall as a FLEX option.

If you think Flacco is not going to continue to sun run though, it gets a lot dicier. In that case, I almost feel like the best route is a 4-2 Jets lean and Breece Hall captain. But it's really hard to parse out who benefits from a game where Flacco looks human because we just haven't seen it.

Flacco talk aside, I think the fact that neither defense is looking that valued is interesting. If you wanted to avoid the passing game entirely here and instead focus on a low scoring, RB-centric gameplan from both sides, I think that would be a really strong way to go.

My personal lean is… not playing this slate because I think it's hard and the game is going to be boring. But if I were to degen this, I would prefer to have a 3-3 with a focus on Breece Hall, both defenses, and hope that Flacco doesn't continue to play from his prime.

Good luck and bink a unique

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NFL DFS 2023 Week 17 Thoughts and Notes

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections

  • The highest team total on the slate is SF at 31.75, lowest is NE at just 13.00.
  • The highest game total on the slate is WAS/SF at 49.50, with PHI/ARI at 48.50.
  • Highest passing TD expectation is SF at 2.23, with BUF and KC at 2.07 and 1.85 respectively.
  • Highest rushing TD expectation is PHI at 1.80, with SF at 1.55.
  • Highest dropback expectation goes to WAS at 41.94, then KC at 40.56.

Here are the top 10 overall stacks in median projection:

  • SF has a lot of representation at the top of the models, you can kind of stack them whichever way you like and the cost is not as prohibitive as other high team totals.
  • PHI has a couple of instances, as well as MIA which is mostly based on Tyreek's projection without Waddle active.
  • Interesting to see TB up here, it's a testament to how solid Baker has been and what a good season Mike Evans is having.

Sorting by team total:

  • All this ownership centered around SF, PHI, and KC while BUF goes basically unowned in the middle of the pack should signal that there's a lot of upside in stacking them today while others avoid them.
  • BAL is really sneaky today and they are really cheap to stack together with their main pieces. You can stack them and bring it back with Tyreek to build a great shootout script without breaking the bank.
  • Other main team that stick out here from an ownership perspective is LAR. People are more on the NYG side because of the savings, but LAR has been awesome in terms of condensed offense the last 5 weeks and is just as valuable as KC.

This is a pretty simple week if you just want to jam in the high team totals. SF is accessible and not overly expensive, PHI is expensive but there are cheap options that you can build with around them. You also have some interesting lower totals to focus on without much ownership. Makes for a really good week for GPPs.

Highest projected ownership

Note: Fanduel has some large ownership differences from Draftkings this week. Hopkins, Jonathan Taylor, Nico Collins, and James Cook are all notably high on FD.

As far as the established ownership:

  • CMC chalk is fine, no issues with it, though I do think that you can get away from it.
  • I hate this Zamir White chalk but it's really hard not to go there if you are building with a low owned stack.
  • Gerald Everett is probably okay, he projects well, but it's not like you can't go other places at TE and I'm usually happy to just correlate to my stacks instead.
  • Not going to play Broncos DST, that seems very silly here.
  • Demario Douglas is fine, it's a (presumably) good gamescript and he's been good with Zappe.
  • Shaheed is probably the worst chalk on the slate, he's an easy avoid at that price point.
  • Love Zay Flowers, think he's a solid option especially if paired with Tyreek/Lamar.
  • Jalen Hurts is -280 to score a rushing TD lol.
  • Rashee Rice is maybe a little bit too expensive here, really only valuable to me with Kelce or in a mini-stack.
  • Not exactly sure what's up with the Dalton Shultz chalk, that seems like a reach.

A couple other things:

  • I think Achane will get a lot more ownership once we turn the cards over, so be reticent of that.
  • One of the most popular pairings will be CMC/Zamir, so I would be avoiding that combo unless you have a low owned stack with it.

Usage and expected fantasy points

First, sorted by exValue, which is the value offered based on their salary and expected PPR points:

Low ownership kind of across the board here. CMC and Everett with some high numbers but for the most part I think you can get away with slamming in a bunch of these guys and still have relative value. Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, and D'andre Swift all catch my eye. Also kind of like Bijan in this spot at 5% ownership.

Next, sorted by raw expected PPR points:

Once again, low ownership across the board. Granted, there aren't any great values here and most of these guys are kind of in a deadzone in terms of price. Main guys that pique my interest are Tyreek and AJ Brown, with Swift making another appearance if you aren't stacking PHI.

Finally let's sort this by Ownership:

Already notes a bunch of the ownership stuff above. I'm honestly not really interested in a lot of the chalk options this week outside of Demario Douglas and Zay Flowers. I could land on a bunch of these guys and be fine with it but I don't really see a lot of players that I am really having a hard time getting off of.

Overall slate notes

  • This is an easy week for stacks, with SF/PHI being the primary options and BAL/KC/BUF being the best secondary options. I also find TB/LAR to be valuable. I know a lot of people are on NYG, which I get, but I don't think I'll land there in a handfull of lineups.
  • Avoid the Zamir/CMC pairing, otherwise both are fine as chalk options in most lineups.
  • I really like the BAL/MIA game environment the more that I dug into things. BAL has a healthy team total, and both these offenses have a lot of upside. Nobody is going to overstack that game and I think it makes for a strong point per dollar option.
  • KC came out and said that they were going to limit their WR rotations, so I expect Rashee rice and Justin Watson to be the main guys on the field most of the game. Watson makes for a strong value.
  • If you don't have PHI stacks, I love D'Andre Swift. I think he's a really good option at a nice price point.
  • I didn't find myself bringing back any WRs for WAS, but if I did it would be Curtis Samuel.
  • Jonathan Taylor and Colts DST is a great combo if you are fading Zamir White.
For more info and alerts on new articles, follow me at @Paydirt_DFS on Twitter!

NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

(Finalized after 12pm EST)

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Brock Purdy/Tyrod Taylor
RB – Zamir White
RB – Christian McCaffrey
WR – Demario Douglas
WR – Rashee Rice
TE – Gerald Everett
DST – Broncos DST

NFL DFS GPP Core:

(Finalized after 10am EST)

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson
RB – De'Von Achane, Jonathan Taylor, D'Andre Swift, Zamir White, CMC
WR – Tyreek Hill, Zay Flowers, Michael Wilson, Deebo Samuel, Demario Douglas
TE – Isaiah Likely, Dallas Goedert, George Kittle, Robert Tonyan (if Kmet out)
DST – Whoever you want

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Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Week 15

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

ChALK DFS Plays:

  • Kyren Williams (38.98%)
  • Christian McCaffery (31.42%)
  • Ezekiel Elliot (30.01%)
  • Antonio Gibson (29.97%)
  • Jayden Reed (26.27%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams is far and away the best option in this price tier. No other player in his range comes close to his median/ceiling combo. Furthermore, his top finish% is three times as high as the next option due in large part to the Rams having the second-highest implied team total. However, if you need a pivot Deebo Samuel is a price pivot as well as direct leverage to chalk CMC.

Christian McCaffery

Christian McCaffery rates out as the top spend up option in regards to projection, however, there is absolutely no reason he should be six times as owned as Tyreek Hill. While he is slightly more expensive, Tyreek seems like the clear GPP play if spending up to this tier.

Ezekiel Elliot

Ezekiel Elliot will indeed be chalk in the year 2023. Rhamondre Stevenson is out for NE and the matchup isn't particularly difficult. Moreover, despite a low implied team total the Patriots utilize Zeke pretty heavily in the pass game which boosts his floor. James Cook is a potential pivot at the RB position, as well as Rashee Rice or Amari Cooper in the FLEX.

Antonio Gibson

Antonio GIbson is in line for an increased workload due to Brian Robinson Jr. being out for this game. Similar to Zeke Elliot, Gibson sees a lot of passing work which helps boosts his floor. His passing game involvement should also help make him relatively game-script proof as well. Chuba Hubbard and Jerome Ford are potential pivots at the RB position.

Jayden Reed

Jayden Reed is another chalk option that is a beneficiary of injury. Christian Watson is out for the Packers which should even further solidify the role and targets for Reed. However, of all of the high owned options mentioned Reed is the only one who is not the top play at their price range. Drake London and Curtis Samuel both look like strong GPP pivots at significantly lower ownership.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

This week is tough considering most of the high owned plays look like they warrant the ownership. None of them are necessarily “bad” chalk, but you will certainly need to be mindful of how much ownership you are eating. Based on ownership, a popular roster construction is going to include RB in the FLEX spot. Therefore, it may be beneficial to go heavier at WR plays in the FLEX instead. Furthermore, playing an off the board stack is likely going to be a priority today to build in differentiation. Players such as Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, Chuba Hubbard, and Drake London stand out as pivots for GPPs.

Good luck and let's bake some bread!

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  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
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  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

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NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Broncos vs. Patriots

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

When it comes to the captain slot, the most consistently positive leverage players were Bailey Zappe and Wil Lutz. In the handful of runs I did with the contest sims, both of these dudes show up in the winning frames at captain more often than their relatively modest ownership projections show. People likely still don't trust Zappe, and when you can get a cheap QB at low ownership in showdown you just snap shove.

the most consistently negative leveraged player on this slate is DeVante Parker, followed closely by the Broncos DST. In this specific run, Parker only had an exposure rate of .06%, meaning he nearly didn't show up at all as a winning captain even though his ownership at the slot is just over 8%.

FLEX ownership distributions

The most consistently positive FLEX play comes from Demario Douglas. In this specific run, he came in with an exposure rate in winning frames of 56%, over double his projected owership there of just 27.82%. It's a rare spot where the field is drastically missig on a cheaper play based on what the models are telling us.

The most consistently negative leverage play at FLEX was Jerry Jeudy. Because of a relatively high price tag, he was typically left out of winning lineups that included the likes of Elliot, Zappe, and Wilson. Another name worth mentioning here is Javonte Williams, who we will see in a minute is part of the main FLEX combo and a relatively easy fade.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Some notes:

  • There is going to be HEAVY duping on this slate, as evidenced by the top 10 highest projected dupes above being well over the 225ish range where we expect dupes to get large. There's a good chance one of these lineups has 500+ duplications in large fields.
  • It's all about paying down at captain tonight, as the field will be jamming in Zeke/Russ.
  • Speaking of that, the FLEX combo is going to be Zeke/Russ/Javonte with a lot of Wil Lutz, though Lutz may end up in the captain just as much as the FLEX.

The main thing here is outside of Demario Douglas, there are very few Patriots receiving options that are looking to be involved in heavy duping, and you don't really see any of the secondary Broncos receivers either. If you can stomach stacking a QB+2 on this slate, that's going to be the best way to mitigate dupes naturally while still jamming in a lot of the best plays.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

Not going to get super in depth here, both of these offenses are inconsistent at best and bad at worst. The contest sims find that avoiding Javonte Williams is one of the better ways to mitigate duplications as well as build nice relative value, so that’s the key piece that I will give.

For me, the only big roster construction thought I have is to make sure that you start with a QB+2 here. Going with Zappe/Douglas/Gesicki or Russ/Sutton/Jeudy is going to instantly help you out with correlation as well as limited dupe paths and high upside. Just lean into a 4-2 from whichever team you think wins and use one of Zappe/Lutz/Douglas/Sutton at captain to make sure the upside is built in.

Happy Holidays everyone!

Good luck and bink a unique

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  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
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NFL DFS 2023 Week 16 Thoughts and Notes

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections

  • The highest team total on the slate is MIA at 25.50, the lowest on the slate is WAS at 17.00.
  • The highest game total on the slate is MIA/DAL at 48.50.
  • Highest passing TD expectation is MIN at 1.67.
  • Highest rushing TD expectation are MIA and DET at 1.37 and 1.36.
  • Highest dropback expectation goes to CLE at 40.54 and then JAX/WAS at 39.83 and 39.73.

Here are the top 10 overall stacks in median projection:

  • We have DAL and MIN with some doubled up instances in the top 10 here, which makes sense considering the game environments and upside of the individual players.
  • MIA with by far the highest projection, mostly attributed to Tyreek Hill.
  • JAX/CHI/TB/CLE all make appearances here, of the four you’ll see a lot of ownership on CHI and the least ownership on TB.

Sorting by team total:

  • Interesting how little ownership we have projected for MIA and DET stacks with 25+ implied team totals.
  • ATL has a surprisingly high team total here at 23.50, their season long average is just 18.43 so Vegas is giving them an extra 5 points and they are legit free to stack.
  • SEA/JAX/MIN all have ownership as cheap stacks.

Overall based on the macro stuff I really like MIA/DAL individual pieces, but they may be too prohibitively expense to actually gamestack. Maybe the best spot in terms of leveraging the field is stacking DET with Justin Jefferson as a bringback instead of eating Mullens chalk.

One spot I think is going way overlooked is ATL, who is under $14k to stack across the board and has a pretty nice team total. People are on Bijan and maybe a couple of the pieces individually but no one is actually going to click on Heinicke.

Highest projected ownership

Note: On Fanduel you are looking at Chuba Hubbard and Tyreek Hill being in the top 10 of ownership over the Jets and Dontavion Wicks.

As far as the established ownership:

  • Jets DST against Howell? Okay fine, I get it.
  • Wicks is chalk because of the injuries to the GB receiving core, though I’m not sure that you really want to eat that ownership in a low total spot with an inconsistent QB?
  • Ty Chandler is going to be less owned than this projection with Mattison active in limited fashion.
  • Breece Hall chalk is probably fine, it’s a good pairing with Jets DST.
  • Jonathan Taylor should touch the ball like 30 times with no Zack Moss, so I’m happy to eat whatever ownership here.
  • Justin Jefferson is good at football.
  • Rachaad White in this spot is probably fine, though I prefer the passing game here in what could be a shootout.
  • DJ Moore will be paired with Justin Fields to a large degree today, I actually might like him more as a one off?
  • Trey McBride is appropriately priced but also a baller, he makes for the best possible gamestack piece against DJ Moore and/or Justin Fields.
  • Talked a bit about Bijan above, but that team total for ATL is really strong and he is underpriced relative to the increased points they are expected to score.

Fair chalk all around really, I think you can find reasons to play most of it. I'm not a fan of Dontavion Wicks but he's kind of the only thin play and there's reasons he is being reached for.

Usage and expected fantasy points

First, sorted by exValue, which is the value offered based on their salary and expected PPR points:

Can likely ignore Goodson here, that's a super small sample and his PPR expectation is low. There's some solid ownership across the board here, but getting guys like Gibbs at 5% seems hot. Also, Tyler Conklin once again a solid cheap TE to go with for some salary relief.

Next, sorted by raw expected PPR points:

This seems like a sick spot for Tony Pollard to be honest. He's been returning to form and the team total is awesome. Some other names that kind of stick out here:

  • Gibbs/Montgomery
  • Achane/Mostert
  • Amon-Ra
  • Aaron Jones

Finally let's sort this by Ownership:

Yeah Wicks at that ownership is just too much. Him and Chandler seem like pretty bad plays in a vacuum. Outside of that? I don't think there's too much to pick apart here. Seems like a week where things mostly make sense.

Of course, a week where things mostly make sense in week 16 doesn't sound like things will make much sense once everything is said and done, but as of now! Things look like they make sense from an ownership perspective.

Overall slate notes

  • I don't think that I have a main stacks direction this week. The game environments I'm interested in are DET/MIN, TB/JAX, and MIA/DAL and the stacks that I think are sneakier and have good upside are ATL and DET.
  • I am interested in Cleveland but man, I don't know if I trust the pass rates so far? He makes sense from a cheap stack to fit the MIA/DAL studs though.
  • Ownership is mostly fine across the board, I would just be wary of Wicks as a one off. If you want to play him you should do so with Jordan Love.
  • I want at least one of if not both of Tyreek and CeeDee Lamb in every lineups I build.
  • One player that I hope doesn't get talked up too much is Roschon Johnson, who I think is an awesome play overall today especially if he's under 10% ownership.
  • If you are going to play Jets DST, you should do so with Breece Hall.
  • I think that the TB/JAX game is really interesting, and it's one of the easiest games to gamestack based on price and availability of pieces.
For more info and alerts on new articles, follow me at @Paydirt_DFS on Twitter!

NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

(Finalized after 12pm EST)

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Nick Mullens/Justin Fields
RB – Jonathan Taylor
RB – Breece Hall
WR – Dontavion Wicks
WR – Justin Jefferson/DJ Moore
TE – Trey McBride
DST – Jets DST

NFL DFS GPP Core:

(Finalized after 10am EST)

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Jared Goff, Taylor Heinicke, Justin Fields, Nick Mullens
RB – Breece Hall, Jonathan Taylor, Rochson Johnson, Bijan Robinson, De'Von Achane
WR – Drake London, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Tyreek/CeeDee, ARSB
TE – Trey McBride, Tyler Conklin, Sam LaPorta, Kyle Pitts/Jonnu Smith
DST – Whoever you want

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
  • Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.
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NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Rams vs. Saints

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

The main take away for me from a handful of runs of the contest sims in regards to the captain slot was to stay away from Matthew Stafford. He rated out as a consistently negative leverage option, and when you think about how the Rams offense is put together, that makes a lot of sense. If he has a great game, it’s likely that one of (or both) Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp ended up having 100+ yards and at least one touchdown. That means that Puca or Kupp are going to likely have higher scores than Stafford in most of those instances.

The captains that had some consistently strong positive leverage were Chris Olave and Kyren Williams. Chris Olave is probably the most interesting option since he should come in as the 4-5th highest owned option at the slot and has the same upside as the LAR receivers.

FLEX ownership distributions

Kyren Williams is far and away the highest positive leverage offered in the FLEX, with a 74% exposure rate and just 46% projected ownership in this specific run. He was consistently above 20%+ positive leverage in the runs I did and was never once below 15%. There’s a good argument for him being a lock on this slate when you consider his medians and the options on this slate overall.

The highest consistent negative leverage for this slate comes from both defenses, which can’t be right because at least one defense is always optimal in 2023 showdown slates. Regardless, the models disagree with that narrative and think you can find much better value options elsewhere.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Some notes:

  • These ownership sum numbers are all really low, so we don’t have to worry too much about dupe mitigation, or at least not as much as we usually would.
  • The top 10 lineups in terms of projected duping have kicker captains, so it’s pretty easy to just avoid any kicker captain lineups and build good ones instead.
  • The main FLEX combo is Kyren/Stafford and then some mixing in of Puka/Carr/Olave.

With a main FLEX combo of just two players, it’s no wonder the dupe counts are likely to be low. People just aren’t dedicated to any of the Saints options, which represents a nice opportunity!

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

The last time that we had a slate like this, it was with the Bengals and we jammed in Chase captain with Browning and won a bunch of money. I think tonight is a similar circumstance, with people being really low on the Saints and their main options, which gives us a lot of upside for leaning heavily that direction. For instance, most showdown slates are going to feature both QBs heavily, but tonight you have a lopsided ownership discrepancy towards Stafford while Carr might not even break the 40% owned range in the FLEX.

When we look at the top overall duping spots, there’s a shockingly low amount of Kamara, who has the ability to completely shatter a showdown slate with how high his usage upside is. Especially because his ceiling is connected to his receiving work, he makes for an awesome pairing with similarly underowned Derek Carr. It’s just a really good situation for showdown.

The way I look at it, going with a Saints 4-2 here makes the most sense along with a fade of Matthew Stafford. I think that Kyren Williams has too much usage to justify a fade in anything but super large field stuff, so that means I’m much more likely to get off Stafford here. Starting lineups with Kamara/Carr instead of Kyren/Stafford is going to help you build in a bunch of relative value for similar upside.

Some options that look overvalued:

  • Defenses (FLEX)
  • Matthew Stafford (CPT)
  • Rams stacks

Some options that look undervalued:

  • Chris Olave (CPT)
  • Carr/Kamara connections
  • Saints stacks

Good luck and bink a unique

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NFL DFS 2023 Week 15 Thoughts and Notes

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections

  • The highest team total on the slate is SF at 30.25, the lowest on the slate is NE at 14.25.
  • The highest game total on the slate is LAR/WAS at 50.00 and then DAL/BUF at 49.00.
  • Highest passing TD expectation is LAR at 2.11. They are followed by BUF and SF at 2.04 and 1.90, respectively.
  • Highest rushing TD expectation is SF at 1.69 with a drop to the second highest for MIA at 1.20.
  • Highest dropback expectation goes to WAS at 43.40. The next two highest being CLE (40.17) and KC (39.99).

Here are the top 10 overall stacks in median projection:

The top 10 in median are all clumped together relatively closely. SF, BUF, and DAL have the most representation here, and after updates to Tyreek being out I would imagine that MIA falls out completely. While this kind of paints the picture of a BUF/DAL stack being the best spot (it’s for sure the best game environment) the two teams are so expensive that they just don’t come together on this slate.

Sorting by team total:

Really no surprises here in terms of ownership, upside, or expectation when sorting by team total. It’s worth mentioning that the team totals drop off a cliff after BUF at 25.5. You end up giving up around a full touchdown of expected production.

Again, there has been news this morning that has changed the overall landscape of a couple of these teams. MIA and NO will see their team totals and medians drop for sure on the next update, and it makes them pretty close to unusable as stacks.

Highest projected ownership

I don’t know that we will see any big shifts in ownership with the late news this morning. I could see Shaheed getting a big ownership jump with no Olave, but I don’t see Waddle getting too much of a boost overall.

As far as the established ownership:

  • Kyren Williams should be $8,500, no surprise he is chalk and he’s very good chalk at that.
  • Antonio Gibson ownership with no Brian Robinson probably makes plenty of sense, I prefer him in a gamestack situation but I don’t mind him as a value.
  • Jayden Reed getting a big ownership boost with no Christian Watson and going against the “pass funnel” TB defense. Not sure I buy the pass funnel part but he’s too cheap for the expected workload.
  • Anybody who plays Chig Okonkwu is a fed.
  • Demarcus Robinson ehhhhhhhh

There’s some straws being grasped for sure. Kyren is great chalk, I like the mid range stuff, but I would not be touching Chig. Robinson is super thin too.

Usage and expected fantasy points

First, sorted by exValue, which is the value offered based on their salary and expected PPR points:

Jonnu Smith leads the way here, he will have no ownership. There’s actually a lot of value here that isn’t getting much attention. Tyler Conklin is interesting as a direct pivot off of bad chalk Okonkwu. Michael Wilson is one of my favorite plays on the slate, especially in SF stacks or bringbacks.

Next, sorted by raw expected PPR points:

Ownership is pretty top heavy on the two best plays on the slate, but again no ownership on Kamara. He could have an increase in workload today with no Olave either. Both MIA RBs are undervalued in this spot, but with no Tyreek we should expect the offense to be much less effective overall. Interesting that the BUF/DAL game is such a strong game environment with relatively muted ownership? I can buy in there.

Finally let's sort this by Ownership:

Again, I don’t know what ownership will look like after I update for Olave and Tyreek out, but I wouldn’t think things change all that much in this table. Shaheed was already projecting as a value and I expect his ownership to be in the 25% range. I don’t expect any MIA players to be popular with no Tyreek.

Main notes: You can’t play Chig or Kraft at that ownership, they just aren’t good players and their roles are bad. Trey Mcbride is appropriately priced, he makes for a much better gamestack or bring back piece for SF stacks than he does as a one off option at that ownership. Hopkins getting ownership with a third string QB is fuckin wild. Y’all are wild.

Overall slate notes

Important note: This article was written with models ran assuming Tyreek Hill in, and he has since been announced inactive. Jaylen Waddle is an strong option at a nice price point while Cedrick Wilson Jr., Braxton Berrios, and River Cracraft will likely end up splitting up the WR2 work. However, this offense struggles badly without Tyreek, so it’s going to knock MIA down a lot.

  • Main stacks are SF, LAR, and BUF/DAL gamestacks if you can stomach some punts. Secondary stacking options are GB and KC, but mostly just GB.
  • The cheap TE ownership is really bad, if you avoid that you can get a lot of easier relatively value.
  • Situations like Kyren Williams are nice, because you can easily leverage large portions of the field on him by stacking LAR instead, which is my preference.
  • MIA situation feels bad, but there’s obviously a massive opportunity window opened up for the WR3/4 guys on that team. Wouldn’t surprise me if Cedrick Wilson Jr. stepped in and had a 15+ fantasy point outing.
  • Pretty straight forward week with some easy to fit spots. Being different with one offs and RBs is going to be the right way to build in GPPs while you just hang out on the main stacks with good team totals.
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NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

(Finalized after 12pm EST)

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Matt Stafford
RB – Kyren Williams
RB – Christian McCaffrey
WR – Rashid Shaheed
WR – Jayden Reed
FLEX – Antonio Gibson
DST – Jets DST

NFL DFS GPP Core:

(Finalized after 10am EST)

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Brock Purdy, Matt Stafford, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott
RB – Kyren Williams, Chrsitian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Antonio Gibson
WR – Puka Nacua, Deebo Samuel, Michael Wilson, Mike Evans, DJ Moore
TE – George Kittle, David Njouku, Jake Ferguson, Jonnu Smith
DST – Whoever you want

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NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Seahawks vs. Eagles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

As far as captains god, the big thing to take away from the runs that I did in the contest sims is to avoid kicker captains, as both Elliot and Myers were consistently negative leverage. The consistently positive leverage players for the slate were Devonta Smith, Jalen Hurts, and Tyler Lockett. Overall this slate lends itself better to playing a mid-priced captain with upside rather than jamming in the high priced options with a cheap captain.

FLEX ownership distributions

For the FLEX spot, the most consistently positive leverage went to A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts, both of who were in the 10%+ range in every single run. Starting your lineups with that combo in the FLEX is a good way to ensure that your floor is set and your lineups are on the right path.

When considering negative leverage, the consistently negative leverage options were Dallas Goedert and Devonta Smith. Of course, when A.J. Brown is looking like he’s around 30% underowned based on his exposure rate, the other receivers around him are going to look considerably worse.

Interestingly, Jason Myers was a positive value more often than not while Jake Elliott was a negative source of leverage. If you are going to pick a kicker, it seems that Myers is the better choice.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

A couple notes on the above (bad) lineups:

  • The highest exposure players here are A.J. Brown and Jake Elliot, which is nice, because we like Elliott a lot less than we do Myers when it comes to GPPs.
  • The ownership sums here are pretty consistent with where we would usually see showdowns end up, so you’ll have to be reticent of the dupe counts you are walking into with certain combinations.
  • There are a lot of kicker captains here.
  • The main FLEX combo is Hurts/Brown/Kicker.

So the FLEX combo is actually pretty small, and that’s mostly because of the lack of clarity of the opposing QB. With Geno Smith questionable, people don’t know what to do, so neither QB is super owned at the moment. I imagine if Lock is the starter he will end up as part of the main FLEX combo with Hurts, Brown, and a kicker.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This slate is weird because like… the Eagles are fucking bad on defense. And they have been getting torn up all year by subpar passing attacks. So this appears to be a great spot for the Seahawks offense to put up some numbers. But because of the uncertainty at QB, people aren’t wanting to take chances!

Which, of course, means that we should take those chances!

One player that stuck out to me as being undervalued here is DK Metcalf. He doesn’t rate out the best but in this position and against a defense that has struggled this year he’s exactly the kind of pick you want in showdown. He’s a priority if I end up playing this slate.

Outside of that, it’s pretty much broken down above. Build around Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown as Eagles pieces and utilize Metcalf and whoever starts at QB for the Seahawks. Preferably go with Myers as your kicker if you use one.

The other way of building tonight is by going with D’Andre Swift at captain along with the Eagles DST and Jalen Hurts. This assumes that the Seahawks have limited production and touchdowns, so it would be a 5-1 onslaught.

My preference is probably with a 4-2 SEA lean with just Hurts/Brown for the Eagles.

Some options that look overvalued:

  • Kicker captains
  • Devonta Smith
  • Eagles DST

Some options that look undervalued:

  • DK Metcalf
  • Jalen Hurts (CPT)
  • D'Andre Swift (CPT)

Good luck and bink a unique

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NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Ravens vs. Jaguars

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

Going through a handful of runs, there really weren’t that many captains that stuck out in terms of consistent positive leverage offered. Sometimes you would get cheap ones, sometimes you would get Trevor Lawrence, but nothing was ever up there time and time again.

However, there were a couple players that ended up as consistent negative leverage: Lamar Jackson and Rashod Bateman. Lamar Jackson is negative for the captain slow mostly because of price, as his exposure in the winning frames was still consistently the highest on the slate. This means he’s a fine play, but you have to be cognizant of playing him at captain because it leaves you with only a relatively small selection of usable lineups that will probably be duped heavily.

FLEX ownership distributions

When it comes to the FLEX distributions, we have some clear direction. All of Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, and Travis Etienne were consistently positive leverage and frequently offered double digit numbers at the slot. If you started everyone with those three locked into the FLEX, you would be on the right track.

When it comes to negative leverage offered, the most consistent name was Gus Edwards. He’s just too expensive on a team running a committee at RB along with Lamar Jackson taking his share of rushing upside.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Some notes:

  • These are really, really low aggregate numbers. An ownership sum of around 220+ is when we start running into heavy dupes, so maxing out in this exercise at less than 200 means we can expect dupe counts to be considerably lower on this slate.
  • Lots of Keaton Mitchell and Zay Jones captains, which just speaks to people wanting to fit Jackson+Lawernce reliably.
  • The main FLEX combo we see is Jackson/Lawernce/Engram/Tucker, with a good amount of Keaton Mitchell as well.

We see very few of the Ravens main receiving options up here, and instead see a lot of the Jags passing game. I think that’s something we can exploit for sure, and with how low I expect the duplication counts to be tonight you can take any route you want without having to worry too much about leverage or dupe mitigation.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This seems like a pretty good showdown to focus on. Two quality teams with upside and pretty diverse target trees means that you can go a lot of different directions and put yourself in contention.

Based on what we see above, I think the Ravens passing game is going overlooked. There’s very little Isaiah Likely anywhere in the top dupes, and OBJ has been an awesome piece for them down the stretch. Zay Flowers is a bit overowned but that doesn’t matter if your roster construction allows you to build positive leverage around him.

Jags side is hard to decipher but that’s not a bad thing. There is going to be outsized ownership on Zay Jones and less ownership on Parker Washington, who has shown he can earn targets in a limited sample. Overall there’s probably not any wrong direction for the Jags passing options, so just play who makes things work.

I don’t have a lot of opinions on rushing options for either side. Etienne is the clear and away top option for the Jags, but he may end up a bit gamescript dependent, so pair him with the Jags DST or other gamescript correlatives. The Ravesn side is a lot less clear, even if Mitchell is a bit of a baller, so I prefer to just focus on the passing game.

My main lean for roster construction is a 4-2 BAL lean with either OBJ or Zay Flowers at captain. Locking in Lamar and Trevor Lawrence in the FLEX and just looking for a Ravens oriented shootout.

Some options that look overvalued:

  • Lamar Jackson (CPT)
  • Gus Edwards
  • Jags leans

Some options that look undervalued:

  • Ravens passing stacks
  • Parker Washington
  • Jags DST correlatives

Good luck and bink a unique

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Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Week 14

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

Chalk DFS Plays:

  • Zack Moss (31.87%)
  • Bijan Robinson (19.14%)
  • Christian McCaffery (18.83%)
  • Josh Jacobs (18.21%)
  • Rashee Rice (16.22%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Zack Moss

Zack Moss will benefit once again from Jonathon Taylor being out. While the results may not have been there last week, the usage was everything you could've asked for and it looks to be the same this week. Consequently, Moss rates as the clear top option at his price tier. The closest pivot would be Joe Mixon on the other side of that game, however, CIN looks to be giving Chase Brown some increased touches.

Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson is projected to be a popular play this week, however, there really isn't anything that stands out in the models. Jahmyr Gibbs, Rachaad White, and Joe Mixon are all similar plays at lower ownership. Additionally, you can consider DJ Moore and Deebo Samuel as pivots in the FLEX.

Christian McCaffery

CMC simply has a ceiling that is hard to match by any other player on the slate. Moreover, he also has the highest median projection and the 49ers have the highest team total on the slate. Keenan Allen with full PPR scoring is the closest pivot outside of one other situation discussed in the Final Thoughts section.

Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs has solid median and ceiling projections. Between him and Bijan Robinson at similar price points and both as chalk, Jacobs would be the recommended play. However, similar to Bijan, Rachaad Whiteand Jahmyr Gibbs once again stand out as RB pivots and DJ Moore as a FLEX pivot.

Rashee Rice

Rashee Rice rates fine and KC has the third highest projected dropback% on the slate. This play really comes down to ownership. If you think Rice is twice as likely to outscore Noah Brown and/or four times as likely to outscore Tyler Lockett then play him. If not, pivot to lower owned options.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

Zack Moss and CMC look like the strongest chalk options, while Bijan Robinson is the most fragile. Josh Jacobs and Rashee Rice are fine plays but you may want to pivot depending on how much other chalk you have in your lineups. Based on ownership, a popular roster construction is going to include RB in the FLEX spot. Therefore, it may be beneficial to go heavier at WR plays in the FLEX instead. Furthermore, if Taysom Hill is out for NO Alvin Kamara should have safer TD equity and would have a similar ceiling to CMC for over $1k less. Players such as DJ Moore, Deebo Samuel, Rachaad White, and Jahmyr GIbbs stand out as pivots for GPPs.

Good luck and let's bake some bread!

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