Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!
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NFL DFS main slate breakdown:
Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections
- The highest team total on the slate is MIA at 25.50, the lowest on the slate is WAS at 17.00.
- The highest game total on the slate is MIA/DAL at 48.50.
- Highest passing TD expectation is MIN at 1.67.
- Highest rushing TD expectation are MIA and DET at 1.37 and 1.36.
- Highest dropback expectation goes to CLE at 40.54 and then JAX/WAS at 39.83 and 39.73.
Here are the top 10 overall stacks in median projection:
- We have DAL and MIN with some doubled up instances in the top 10 here, which makes sense considering the game environments and upside of the individual players.
- MIA with by far the highest projection, mostly attributed to Tyreek Hill.
- JAX/CHI/TB/CLE all make appearances here, of the four you’ll see a lot of ownership on CHI and the least ownership on TB.
Sorting by team total:
- Interesting how little ownership we have projected for MIA and DET stacks with 25+ implied team totals.
- ATL has a surprisingly high team total here at 23.50, their season long average is just 18.43 so Vegas is giving them an extra 5 points and they are legit free to stack.
- SEA/JAX/MIN all have ownership as cheap stacks.
Overall based on the macro stuff I really like MIA/DAL individual pieces, but they may be too prohibitively expense to actually gamestack. Maybe the best spot in terms of leveraging the field is stacking DET with Justin Jefferson as a bringback instead of eating Mullens chalk.
One spot I think is going way overlooked is ATL, who is under $14k to stack across the board and has a pretty nice team total. People are on Bijan and maybe a couple of the pieces individually but no one is actually going to click on Heinicke.
Highest projected ownership
Note: On Fanduel you are looking at Chuba Hubbard and Tyreek Hill being in the top 10 of ownership over the Jets and Dontavion Wicks.
As far as the established ownership:
- Jets DST against Howell? Okay fine, I get it.
- Wicks is chalk because of the injuries to the GB receiving core, though I’m not sure that you really want to eat that ownership in a low total spot with an inconsistent QB?
- Ty Chandler is going to be less owned than this projection with Mattison active in limited fashion.
- Breece Hall chalk is probably fine, it’s a good pairing with Jets DST.
- Jonathan Taylor should touch the ball like 30 times with no Zack Moss, so I’m happy to eat whatever ownership here.
- Justin Jefferson is good at football.
- Rachaad White in this spot is probably fine, though I prefer the passing game here in what could be a shootout.
- DJ Moore will be paired with Justin Fields to a large degree today, I actually might like him more as a one off?
- Trey McBride is appropriately priced but also a baller, he makes for the best possible gamestack piece against DJ Moore and/or Justin Fields.
- Talked a bit about Bijan above, but that team total for ATL is really strong and he is underpriced relative to the increased points they are expected to score.
Fair chalk all around really, I think you can find reasons to play most of it. I'm not a fan of Dontavion Wicks but he's kind of the only thin play and there's reasons he is being reached for.
Usage and expected fantasy points
First, sorted by exValue, which is the value offered based on their salary and expected PPR points:
Can likely ignore Goodson here, that's a super small sample and his PPR expectation is low. There's some solid ownership across the board here, but getting guys like Gibbs at 5% seems hot. Also, Tyler Conklin once again a solid cheap TE to go with for some salary relief.
Next, sorted by raw expected PPR points:
This seems like a sick spot for Tony Pollard to be honest. He's been returning to form and the team total is awesome. Some other names that kind of stick out here:
- Gibbs/Montgomery
- Achane/Mostert
- Amon-Ra
- Aaron Jones
Finally let's sort this by Ownership:
Yeah Wicks at that ownership is just too much. Him and Chandler seem like pretty bad plays in a vacuum. Outside of that? I don't think there's too much to pick apart here. Seems like a week where things mostly make sense.
Of course, a week where things mostly make sense in week 16 doesn't sound like things will make much sense once everything is said and done, but as of now! Things look like they make sense from an ownership perspective.
Overall slate notes
- I don't think that I have a main stacks direction this week. The game environments I'm interested in are DET/MIN, TB/JAX, and MIA/DAL and the stacks that I think are sneakier and have good upside are ATL and DET.
- I am interested in Cleveland but man, I don't know if I trust the pass rates so far? He makes sense from a cheap stack to fit the MIA/DAL studs though.
- Ownership is mostly fine across the board, I would just be wary of Wicks as a one off. If you want to play him you should do so with Jordan Love.
- I want at least one of if not both of Tyreek and CeeDee Lamb in every lineups I build.
- One player that I hope doesn't get talked up too much is Roschon Johnson, who I think is an awesome play overall today especially if he's under 10% ownership.
- If you are going to play Jets DST, you should do so with Breece Hall.
- I think that the TB/JAX game is really interesting, and it's one of the easiest games to gamestack based on price and availability of pieces.
NFL DFS Cash Game Core:
(Finalized after 12pm EST)
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.
QB – Nick Mullens/Justin Fields
RB – Jonathan Taylor
RB – Breece Hall
WR – Dontavion Wicks
WR – Justin Jefferson/DJ Moore
TE – Trey McBride
DST – Jets DST
NFL DFS GPP Core:
(Finalized after 10am EST)
This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.
QB – Jared Goff, Taylor Heinicke, Justin Fields, Nick Mullens
RB – Breece Hall, Jonathan Taylor, Rochson Johnson, Bijan Robinson, De'Von Achane
WR – Drake London, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Tyreek/CeeDee, ARSB
TE – Trey McBride, Tyler Conklin, Sam LaPorta, Kyle Pitts/Jonnu Smith
DST – Whoever you want
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