Cowboys vs. Giants (Cowboys -7.5, O/U 52.5)
Best Plays: Daniel Jones, Kenny Golladay, Ceedee Lamb
Best Fades:
General Thoughts: By far one of the top stacking spots on the slate, though the projections are not in love with it from a median standpoint. Still a lot of injuries to deal with for the Giants which narrows the target tree to mostly Golladay/Engram/Barkley. DAL will continue using Lamb, Cooper, and Schultz as top options in their offense.
Though the Cowboys project better, I do like the upside of Daniel Jones more than that of Dak Prescott, so it makes this a weird spot for me. The only reason I like the Cowboys side more is because I want to prioritize Dalton Schultz in the stack and I don't think as many pass catchers from the Giants.
Bengals vs. Packers (Packers -2.5, O/U 50.5)
Best Plays: Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Ja'Marr Chase
Best Fades:
General Thoughts: Another good stacking spot with a solid total, this game is really hinged on the Bengals ability to keep up with the Packers. The only gamescript that makes this a good game for DFS is the Packers getting a good early lead and the Bengals being forced into a passing script rather than being allowed to run like they prefer. Luckily, the Packers are pretty good at scoring.
Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is, mostly, a coin flip. Davante Adams is really the only secure piece of this game while Aaron Jones is an option that leverages the Davante Adams chalk nicely and is one of the high end RBs I want to have if I can afford to do so. Stacking the Bengals side makes more sense than the Packers side from a salary and upside POV.
Vikings vs. Lions (Vikings -10.5, O/U 49.5)
Best Plays: Justin Jefferson, Alexander Mattison
Best Fades:
General Thoughts: Why is the O/U so high here? Neither one of these teams want to pass the ball if they don't have to and the Lions offense isn't potent enough to expose a questionable Vikings defense. Dalvin Cook has been announced inactive, so it's Alexander Mattison week again. He's just too cheap and the workload should continue to be fantastic for him.
Outside of one offs of Justin Jefferson or Alexander Mattison it is hard to like anyone at all. Just take the under on the game and move on.
No preferred stack.
Jaguars vs. Titans (Titans -4.5, O/U 49)
Best Plays: Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown
Best Fades:
General Thoughts: Julio Jones is out again, which makes things pretty easy overall when thinking through this game. A.J. Brown should have a solid workload surrounded by… not much else. The Jaguars are an absolute mess and who knows if they end up putting up any semblance of a fight, which bodes well for Derrick Henry's workload. Interesting that the Titans are only 4.5 point favorites here though, and that's something worth considering. If the books think it's close even with all the drama the industry may be too far on it.
I don't like stacking, but I do like secondary stacks. A.J. Brown, Marvin Jones, and Laviska Shenault are all viable options. If you really want to leverage the field, you can go with a Jaguars stack which assumes they play well and garner a lead which would help to neuter the upside for Henry.
Cardinals vs. 49ers (Cardinals -5.5, O/U 48.5)
Best Plays:
Best Fades:
General Thoughts: I'm really just not in love with this game and the models have kind of soured on the Cardinals as a team worth stacking. Kyler is always going to look good from a projection standpoint but the offense is really spread out and it makes stacking difficult. Especially against another team that is exceptionally spread out and missing some players and starting a rookie QB, it makes this spot a fade.
The only thing you can consider is Chase Edmonds or James Conner for the Cardinals, and both are thin because of some injury issues.
No preferred stack.
Bucs vs. Dolphins (Bucs -10.5, O/U 48)
Best Plays: Antonio Brown, Mike Gesicki, Tom Brady
Best Fades: Jaylen Waddle
General Thoughts: The Dolphins have a lot of injuries to their wideouts and it's really just Jaylen Waddle and some backups at this point. That paired with Jacoby Brissett in at QB makes this a not so great team. However, they pass a lot! And so do the Bucs. So there's definite upside here for both sides and there's nothing wrong with stacking. If you don't want to stack, Leonard Fournette makes sense as a high upside RB that needs to luck into some touchdowns.
Stacking starts and ends with the Bucs side, of course, because it's much more clear cut and the upside is a lot higher on Brady than it is on Jacoby. the question is who you are bringing back, and I think the thing I feel confident in saying is that you are fading Waddle in that regard. I much prefer Gesicki and Preston Williams as options since Waddle has such low upside even on higher volume.
Panthers vs. Eagles (Panthers -3, O/U 48)
Best Plays: D.J. Moore, Chubba Hubbard, DeVonta Smith
Best Fades:
General Thoughts: I'm still not sold on Hurts from a real life perspective but his fantasy upside is undeniable. I think it needs to be the right spot for it is the only issue. The Panthers look like a playoff contender with a renewed Darnold free from the clutches of Adam Gase. Chubba Hubbard isn't going to be a McCaffrey replacement, but his volume is plenty considering the price and team total.
The stacking in this game is from the Eagles side mostly because we have so little clarity on the receivers outside of Moore for the Panthers. Realistically I don't think you need to include Ertz here, but I'm doing so because of price and the TE premium in stacks. I prefer to just use Hubbard and not really stack here but I won't argue if you want to go this route either.
Chargers vs. Browns (Chargers -2.5, O/U 47)
Best Plays: Mike Williams, Odell Beckham Jr.
Best Fades:
General Thoughts: Not a game I'm understanding. Why are the Chargers just 2.5 point favorites? what am I missing here? Browns are a team that does well with a lead but struggles when they have to put up a fight. Chargers are a way better team. This line is weird.
You can use Ekeler, I don't mind doing that. Kareem Hunt is an interesting GPP option as well, but a lesser one for sure. You can also stack with the Chargers side as they actually pass in the redzone and have upside for their WRs. Bringing it back with OBJ is the only way to go about things. Really straight forward game.
Raiders vs. Bears (Raiders -5.5, O/U 46)
Best Plays: Darren Waller
Best Fades:
General Thoughts: The Bears are probably still bad, but they showed some signs of life last week with Darnell Mooney looking like a high upside option and Fields looking more comfortable with the offense around him. The Raiders are a legit team with a lot of passing upside and a high adjusted pass rate. There's upside here! I mean it.
Damien Williams is usable as well but I think to a lesser degree? Now that Alexander Mattison has been declared the DFS golden boy of the week his (Williams) ownership should end up really low. I like him as a pivot in GPPs. Best thing to do here is to stack the Raiders side with Waller and Ruggs and bring it back with Mooney.
Washington vs. Saints (Saints -2.5, O/U 43.5)
Best Plays: Alvin Kamara, Terry McLaurin
Best Fades:
General Thoughts: Alvin Kamara seeing a career high in rushing attempts and a career low in targets is not really a tradeoff I am happy with. The Saints just do not want to let Winston pass the ball and it's hurting their offense a lot and makes them nearly unusable for fantasy. For Washington, we have no Logan Thomas (Ricky Seals-Jones is going to be the main backup) and going up against the Saints it's hard to think that they are going to have their foot on the gas.
Alvin Kamara is fine, Terry McLaurin is still a baller and should have an increased workload, but we aren't stacking here.
No preferred stack.
Steelers vs. Broncos (Broncos -2, O/U 39)
Best Plays: Diontae Johnson, Courtland Sutton
Best Fades:
General Thoughts: Only considering secondary stacks here and the only secondary stack you can make is Diontae Johnson and Courtland Sutton. If you think that Sutton is going to be limited, going with Noah Fant instead is fine. But I'm not stacking a game with a total this low with so many other strong spots on the slate.
No preferred stack.
Texans vs. Patriots (Patriots -7.5, O/U 39)
Best Plays: Brandin Cooks, Jakobi Meyers
Best Fades:
General Thoughts: Secondary stacks are again the only option here and it's just Jacobi Meyers and Brandin Cooks. Other than that this game is a deadzone.
No preferred stack.
Cash Game Core:
- Alexander Mattison
- Derrick Henry
- Davante Adams
- Laviska Shenault
- Ceedee Lamb
- Evan Engram