Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Naz Reid is projecting as massive chalk on both DFS sites. Not only is Rudy Gobert out, but the Wolves are facing Jokic and need all of the size. Naz should get all the minutes he can handle and the only real risk is foul trouble. Sky-high ownership but at his current price and projection there’s really no one else that comes close.
- Robert Covington is one of the cheapest options on a short handed Clippers team. The Clips will be without Kawhi, Paul George, John Wall, and Luke Kennard. Additionally, Zubac is questionable. Covington doesn’t have a crazy high projection, but he’s cheap and should see a lot of minutes. He is one of the safest value options available tonight and should be a priority in cash games.
- Norman Powell benefits from all of the same factors as Robert Covington, however, he’s significantly more expensive. As is often the case with the mid-range chalk, there are just a multitude of similarly projected players at lower ownership. While Powell probably has a solid floor, his ceiling is still limited even with the current situation. You shouldn’t feel obligated to force him into GPP lineups.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Luka Doncic
Norman Powell
Robert Covington
Naz Reid
Mason Plumlee
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Mike Conley, Monte Morris, Terance Mann
SG: Dejounte Murray, Buddy Hield, Malik Beasley
SF: RJ Barrett, De’Andre Hunter, Caris Levert
PF: Jalen McDaniels, Evan Mobley, Aaron Gordon
C: Walker Kessler, Steven Adams, Alperen Sengun
Popular DFS Player: Naz Reid
Price: $4,800/$5,200
Own%: 70.00%/70.00%
Value DFS Player: Robert Covington
Price: $3,600/$4,500
5x%: 70.00%/50.80%
Player to avoid in DFS: Norman Powell
Price: $6,000/$6,000
LevX: -2.93/-26.62
NBA DFS final thoughts
The single biggest piece of leverage on the slate is Naz Reid. Similar to Jrue last night, the main issue is the lack of options around him. However, despite not projecting quite the same if you gambled with Van Vleet over Jrue last night you were rewarded so it’s certainly possible that there may actually be a pivot to Naz. Aside from that, other leverage opportunities include playing any stud other than Doncic, and/or limiting exposure to high-owned Clippers and Thunder. Ownership seems to be concentrated on just a few spots despite it being a 9-game slate. Therefore, it shouldn’t be too hard to find ways to get different in DFS tonight. Good luck!
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