Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Darius Garland is going to be one of the highest owned players on both DFS sites tonight. Donovan Mitchell remains out and the Cavs get a solid matchup with the Thunder missing their best defender. While this is a back-to-back for Cleveland, last night was a blowout win which helps reduce the chance of lower minutes due to fatigue tonight. Garland is underpriced for his upside with no Mitchell thus making him a strong, albeit high owned, play.
- Brandon Clarke got the start last game in Steven Adam’s absence and played 32 minutes. He currently projects for around 27 minutes tonight and certainly has the opportunity to play more. On the season he’s a 1.1 FPPM producer which would have him hitting 6x his Draftkings salary at his current minutes projection. Consequently, he rates as one of the top value options on both sites tonight. However, make sure that he is in the starting lineup as that has largely dictated minutes distribution.
- Evan Mobley will be popular for the same reasons as Garland, Mobley, and Jarrett Allen. The absence of Donovan Mitchell opens up a ton of usage and Mobley should take advantage. He took 17 shots last night en route to over 40 fantasy points and the recency bias will likely inflate his ownership even higher. That said, at his current price point there are several pivots available with similar projections at lower ownership.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
TJ McConnell
Caris LeVert
Darius Garland
Pat Connaughton
Jarrett Allen OR Rudy Gobert
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Fred Van Vleet, Cole Anthony, Jordan Poole
SG: Klay Thompson, Josh Giddey, Tyler Herro
SF: Franz Wagner, Gary Trent Jr., Buddy Hield
PF: Paolo Banchero, Jalen Williams, Jimmy Butler
C: Pascal Siakam, Bam Adebayo, Myles Turner
Popular DFS Player: Darius Garland
Price: $8,300/$8,500
Own%: 46.70%/65.11%
Value DFS Player: Brandon Clarke
Price: $4,900/$5,600
5x%: 63.40%/48.30%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Evan Mobley
Price: $6,800/$7,300
LevX: -15.26/-39.67
NBA DFS final thoughts
Tonight really comes down to how you handle the Cleveland situation. Garland, LeVert, Allen, and Mobley all played over 30 minutes last night despite the blowout win. They are all relatively young and see a similar workload tonight. However, each of them does have a few similarly projected pivots in their respective price ranges. McConnell will be chalk again, but none of the other Pacers are getting a ton of ownership. If you play less than 3 Cavs and/or a stud other than Giannis you can do whatever you want. Good luck!
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